Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $218.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Concentration risk — Customer: Erie Insurance Exchange.
Erie Indemnity Company acts as attorney-in-fact for Erie Insurance Exchange, a Pennsylvania reciprocal property and casualty insurer, performing policy issuance, claims handling and investment management. Revenue consists entirely of management fees calculated as a percentage... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $218.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Concentration risk — Customer: Erie Insurance Exchange. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 98d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerErie Insurance Exchange10-K Item 1A: 'the Exchange is our sole customer and principal source of revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-20Item 5.02HIGHTimothy G. NeCastro, President and CEO since 2016, announced retirement effective December 31, 2026. Board initiating search for new President and CEO; no successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $218.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Concentration risk — Customer: Erie Insurance Exchange. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $208.98. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $257.00 (+17.8% upside). Prior stop was $208.98. Stop-loss: $208.98.
Concentration risk — Customer: Erie Insurance Exchange; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Erie Indemnity Company trades at a P/E of 20.1 (forward 15.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
7 analysts cover ERIE with a consensus score of 4.3/5.
What does Erie Indemnity Company do?Erie Indemnity Company acts as attorney-in-fact for Erie Insurance Exchange, a Pennsylvania reciprocal property and...
Erie Indemnity Company acts as attorney-in-fact for Erie Insurance Exchange, a Pennsylvania reciprocal property and casualty insurer, performing policy issuance, claims handling and investment management. Revenue consists entirely of management fees calculated as a percentage (up to 25%) of the Exchange's direct and affiliated assumed premiums written; Erie Insurance Exchange is the sole customer.