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Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $220.60: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Concentration risk — Customer: Erie Insurance Exchange.

Erie Indemnity Company acts as attorney-in-fact for subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange, managing policy issuance, claims handling, and investment services for this PA-domiciled reciprocal insurer. Its sole revenue source is a management fee up to 25% of the Exchange's... Read more

$220.60+13.7% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#9 of 11 Insurance Brokers
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.83%
IncomeYield2.62%(5y avg 1.78%)Payout51.79%sustainable
Stop $205.84Target $251.63(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $220.60: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Concentration risk — Customer: Erie Insurance Exchange. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Erie Indemnity Company

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Erie Insurance Exchange
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.5
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$11.7B
EV/EBITDA13.8
Profit Mgn14.0%
ROE25.9%
Rev Growth2.3%
Beta0.32
Dividend2.62%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.05bullish
IV40%normal
Max Pain$470+113.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerErie Insurance Exchange
    10-K Item 1: 'the Exchange is our sole customer. Our earnings are largely generated from management fees based on the direct and affiliated assumed premiums written by the Exchange.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02HIGH
    CEO Timothy G. NeCastro will retire December 31, 2026. Board of Directors has initiated a search for a new President and Chief Executive Officer. No successor named. NeCastro has been CEO since 2016.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.1
Earnings Growth
3.7

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
4.5
Value Rank
6.1
GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $210.06Resistance $256.77

Price Targets

$206
$252
A.Upside+14.1%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts8
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ERIE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $220.60: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Concentration risk — Customer: Erie Insurance Exchange. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Prior stop was $205.84. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ERIE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $251.63 (+13.7% upside). Prior stop was $205.84. Stop-loss: $205.84.

What are the risks of investing in ERIE?

Concentration risk — Customer: Erie Insurance Exchange; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is ERIE overvalued or undervalued?

Erie Indemnity Company trades at a P/E of 20.5 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ERIE?

8 analysts cover ERIE with a consensus score of 4.1/5.

What does Erie Indemnity Company do?Erie Indemnity Company acts as attorney-in-fact for subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange, managing policy...

Erie Indemnity Company acts as attorney-in-fact for subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange, managing policy issuance, claims handling, and investment services for this PA-domiciled reciprocal insurer. Its sole revenue source is a management fee up to 25% of the Exchange's direct and affiliated assumed premiums written; it has no other customers.

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