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Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $228.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan manufacturing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Garmin designs, manufactures, and sells GPS-enabled products across fitness, outdoor, aviation, marine, and auto OEM markets globally; delivered more than 20 million products in fiscal 2025 and over 300 million since inception. Revenue comes from hardware device sales and... Read more

$228.69+15.3% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#2 of 14 Scientific & Technical Instruments
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.85%
IncomeYield1.85%(5y avg 2.09%)Payout40.18%sustainable
Stop $217.80Target $263.77(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$261.71+14.4%7 analysts
$263.77our TP
$228.69price
$261.71mean
$320

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $228.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan manufacturing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Garmin Ltd.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan manufacturing
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.3
P/E (Fwd)22.4
Mkt Cap$43.8B
EV/EBITDA19.1
Profit Mgn23.3%
ROE19.9%
Rev Growth14.2%
Beta0.96
Dividend1.85%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.31bearish
IV35%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTaiwan manufacturing
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our principal manufacturing facilities for consumer products are located in Taiwan'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $224.54Resistance $269.15

Price Targets

$218
$264
A.Upside+15.3%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.4% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GRMN stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $228.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan manufacturing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $263.77 (+15.3%), stop $217.80 (−5.0%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.

What is the GRMN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $263.77 (+15.3% upside). Target $263.77 (+15.3%), stop $217.80 (−5.0%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $217.80.

What are the risks of investing in GRMN?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan manufacturing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is GRMN overvalued or undervalued?

Garmin Ltd. trades at a P/E of 25.3 (forward 22.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about GRMN?

16 analysts cover GRMN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $262.

What does Garmin Ltd. do?Garmin designs, manufactures, and sells GPS-enabled products across fitness, outdoor, aviation, marine, and auto OEM...

Garmin designs, manufactures, and sells GPS-enabled products across fitness, outdoor, aviation, marine, and auto OEM markets globally; delivered more than 20 million products in fiscal 2025 and over 300 million since inception. Revenue comes from hardware device sales and subscriptions distributed through a worldwide network of dealers, retailers, and OEMs; manufacturing facilities are in Taiwan, the U.S., Netherlands, U.K., Poland, and China.

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