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GRMNGarmin Ltd.Sell6.0·$234.96-1.35%
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Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $234.96 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers.

Garmin designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes GPS-enabled devices across five segments: fitness, outdoor, aviation, marine, and auto OEM. The company has shipped over 300 million products since founding, including more than 20 million in fiscal 2025, selling through... Read more

$234.96+1.1% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#3 of 14 Scientific & Technical Instruments
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.76%
IncomeYield1.76%(5y avg 2.08%)Payout40.18%sustainable
Stop $223.00Target $237.51(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$262.43+11.7%7 analysts
$237.51our TP
$234.96price
$262.43mean
$220
$325

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $234.96 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.6
P/E (Fwd)23.1
Mkt Cap$45.9B
EV/EBITDA20.1
Profit Mgn23.3%
ROE19.9%
Rev Growth14.2%
Beta0.92
Dividend1.76%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.25bullish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$380+61.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicTaiwan
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our principal manufacturing facilities for consumer products are located in Taiwan.'
  • HIGHSuppliersole source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Some components we use are from sole source suppliers.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $223.55Resistance $242.36

Price Targets

$223
$238
A.Upside+1.1%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GRMN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $234.96 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $223.00. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GRMN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $237.51 (+1.1% upside). Prior stop was $223.00. Stop-loss: $223.00.

What are the risks of investing in GRMN?

Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

Is GRMN overvalued or undervalued?

Garmin Ltd. trades at a P/E of 26.6 (forward 23.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GRMN?

16 analysts cover GRMN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $262.

What does Garmin Ltd. do?Garmin designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes GPS-enabled devices across five segments: fitness, outdoor,...

Garmin designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes GPS-enabled devices across five segments: fitness, outdoor, aviation, marine, and auto OEM. The company has shipped over 300 million products since founding, including more than 20 million in fiscal 2025, selling through retailers, dealers, OEMs, and directly via garmin.com. Manufacturing is vertically integrated across facilities in Taiwan, the U.S., Netherlands, U.K., Poland, and China.

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