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Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Chemicals

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.25: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Green Plains Inc. produces low-carbon fuels in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Ethanol Production, and Agribusiness and Energy Services. The company produces, stores, and transports ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and... Read more

$16.25+14.6% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#7 of 10 Chemicals
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-0.43%
Stop $15.36Target $18.56(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$16.57+2.0%7 analysts
$18.56our TP
$16.25price
$16.57mean
$10
$20

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.25: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Green Plains, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-11.0% upside)
Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)10.7
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA12.4
Profit Mgn-0.8%
ROE-1.9%
Rev Growth-25.9%
Beta1.24
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.64bullish
IV68%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -25.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -26%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
0.8
Moat
3.2
Operating Margin
4.0
Current Ratio
6.1
Piotroski F
6.7
Cash-burning: FCF -0% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.2
Volume
2.9
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $15.84Resistance $18.94

Price Targets

$15
$19
A.Upside+14.2%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPRE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.25: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $15.36. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GPRE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.56 (+14.6% upside). Prior stop was $15.36. Stop-loss: $15.36.

What are the risks of investing in GPRE?

Target reached (-11.0% upside); Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0).

Is GPRE overvalued or undervalued?

Green Plains, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GPRE?

14 analysts cover GPRE with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Green Plains, Inc. do?Green Plains Inc. produces low-carbon fuels in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments,...

Green Plains Inc. produces low-carbon fuels in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Ethanol Production, and Agribusiness and Energy Services. The company produces, stores, and transports ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and renewable corn oil. It is also involved in the grain procurement and commodity marketing businesses; and marketing ethanol for a third-party producer, as well as buys and sells ethanol, distiller grains, renewable corn oil, grain, natural gas, and other commodities in various markets. In addition, the company provides grain drying and storage services to grain producers. The company was formerly known as Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Green Plains Inc. in May 2014. Green Plains Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

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