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Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Chemicals

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.40: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality.

Green Plains Inc. produces low-carbon fuels in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Ethanol Production, and Agribusiness and Energy Services. The company produces, stores, and transports ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and... Read more

$17.40-1.1% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#6 of 10 Chemicals
Stop $16.18Target $17.20(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$15.38-11.6%8 analysts
$17.20our TP
$17.40price
$15.38mean
$10
$19

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.40: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-23.1% upside)
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)16.9
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA41.6
Profit Mgn-5.8%
ROE-14.7%
Rev Growth-26.6%
Beta1.31
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.04bullish
IV94%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
5.6
Current Ratio
6.4
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 6 days

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.1
Support Resistance
0.4
52w Position
9.4

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
3.7
Value Rank
5.0
GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.08Resistance $17.55

Price Targets

$16
$17
A.Upside-1.1%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-23.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPRE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.40: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $16.18. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GPRE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.20 (-1.1% upside). Prior stop was $16.18. Stop-loss: $16.18.

What are the risks of investing in GPRE?

Target reached (-23.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).

Is GPRE overvalued or undervalued?

Green Plains, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GPRE?

15 analysts cover GPRE with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $15.

What does Green Plains, Inc. do?Green Plains Inc. produces low-carbon fuels in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments,...

Green Plains Inc. produces low-carbon fuels in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Ethanol Production, and Agribusiness and Energy Services. The company produces, stores, and transports ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and renewable corn oil. It is also involved in the grain procurement and commodity marketing businesses; and marketing ethanol for a third-party producer, as well as buys and sells ethanol, distiller grains, renewable corn oil, grain, natural gas, and other commodities in various markets. In addition, the company provides grain drying and storage services to grain producers. The company was formerly known as Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Green Plains Inc. in May 2014. Green Plains Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

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