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GLREGreenlight Reinsurance, Ltd.Sell4.6·$15.42+0.46%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Greenlight Reinsurance screens as deeply undervalued with strong cash conversion, but the engine flags 2 of 5 value-trap signals, declining revenue and material insider selling, that temper the deep-value case.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value Margin Of SafetyDeteriorating
  • Value Trap Signals FlaggedStable
  • Material Insider SellingStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Greenlight Reinsurance, Ltd. (GLRE) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellValueQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Reinsurance

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.42: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Greenlight Capital Re is a Cayman Islands-based specialty P&C reinsurer operating two segments, Open Market (84.3% of 2025 gross premiums written) and Innovations (15.7%), which backs insurtech startups and MGAs with reinsurance capacity and seed capital. The company held $2.2... Read more

$15.42+13.4% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#6 of 6 Insurance - Reinsurance
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield46.04%
Stop $14.34Target $17.49(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.42: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Greenlight Reinsurance, Ltd.

About Greenlight Reinsurance, Ltd.

Greenlight Capital Re wrote $773.3 million of consolidated gross premiums in 2025, up 10.7% from 2024, split 84.3% Open Market treaty reinsurance and 15.7% Innovations business, which provides reinsurance capacity and seed capital to insurtech startups and managing general agents. The Cayman Islands-domiciled reinsurer held $2.2 billion of total assets and $0.7 billion of shareholders' equity at December 31, 2025, and operates through licensed subsidiaries Greenlight Re (Cayman), GRIL (Dublin), and Lloyd's Syndicate 3456.

Greenlight Re earns underwriting income by writing proportional and non-proportional treaty reinsurance across casualty, financial, health, multiline, and property lines in its Open Market segment, sourced mostly through brokers, while its Innovations segment writes direct reinsurance and takes equity stakes in startup insurers and MGAs since 2018. Rather than investing premium float in fixed-income securities like most reinsurance peers, Greenlight Re channels capital into a value-oriented long/short equity and corporate-debt portfolio managed through Solasglas, though in late 2025 it began placing regulatory-trust cash tied to U.S. cedents into a separate fixed-maturity portfolio run by a third-party manager. To manage growth in Innovations, the company cedes a share of that segment's contracts to a panel of reinsurers under a whole-account retrocession program -- 28.5% in 2025, rising to 33% for 2026 -- in exchange for override commission income, and in 2026 will bring in outside capital providers to fund 22.5% of Syndicate 3456 for the first time since its 2022 launch.

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Greenlight Re's distribution is concentrated at both ends of its business: in the Open Market segment, four brokers each individually exceeded 10% of gross written premiums and together placed approximately 70.5% of the segment's business in 2025, while in Innovations, just six customers accounted for 53.6% of that segment's premiums. The 10-K states the company is exposed to concentration risk for both Open Market and Innovations segments and warns that losing or failing to expand business with these brokers or direct customers could materially affect results -- a structural feature of a reinsurer that intentionally stays small relative to global competitors to remain selective about the risks it takes on.

See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Reinsurance

From Greenlight Reinsurance, Ltd.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 2, 202683d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Open Market segment (84.3%)
Concentration risk — Counterparty: four largest brokers (Open Market) (70.5%)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.4
P/E (Fwd)9.6
Mkt Cap$509M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn7.4%
ROE7.5%
Rev Growth-10.3%
Beta0.34
DividendNone
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV67%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductOpen Market segment84%
    10-K Item 1: 'Open Market| | $| 652,229 | | | 84.3 | %| | $| 603,798 | | | 86.5 | %'
  • HIGHcounterpartyfour largest brokers (Open Market)71%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our four largest brokers each accounted for more than 10% of our gross written premiums, and in the aggregate, they accounted for approximately 70.5% of the segment's gross premiums written in 2025'
  • HIGHCustomersix customers (Innovations)54%
    10-K Item 1A: 'For the Innovations segment, we had six customers that accounted for 53.6% of the segment's gross premiums written in 2025.'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyInnovations retrocession panel29%
    10-K Item 1: 'we agreed to cede 28.5% of Innovations-related contracts in 2025 in return for an override commission income'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -10.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
3.8
Declining revenue: -10%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.3
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
4.1
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Roa
1.2
Roe
2.5
Net Margin
3.7
Moat
4.6
Current Ratio
5.5
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 459% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)INSIDER 0.27%=MODERATENo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.56Resistance $17.85

Price Targets

$14
$17
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-02 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GLRE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.42: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $14.34. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GLRE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.49 (+13.4% upside). Prior stop was $14.34. Stop-loss: $14.34.

What are the risks of investing in GLRE?

Concentration risk — Product: Open Market segment (84.3%); Concentration risk — Counterparty: four largest brokers (Open Market) (70.5%); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is GLRE overvalued or undervalued?

Greenlight Reinsurance, Ltd. trades at a P/E of 10.4 (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GLRE?

6 analysts cover GLRE with a consensus score of 2.2/5.

What does Greenlight Reinsurance, Ltd. do?Greenlight Capital Re is a Cayman Islands-based specialty P&C reinsurer operating two segments, Open Market (84.3% of...

Greenlight Capital Re is a Cayman Islands-based specialty P&C reinsurer operating two segments, Open Market (84.3% of 2025 gross premiums written) and Innovations (15.7%), which backs insurtech startups and MGAs with reinsurance capacity and seed capital. The company held $2.2 billion in total assets and $0.7 billion in shareholders' equity at December 31, 2025. Four brokers placed about 70.5% of Open Market premiums and six customers accounted for 53.6% of Innovations premiums in 2025.

Related stocks: SPNT (SiriusPoint Ltd.) · HG (Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.) · SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc.) · ASIC (Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co) · LCLN (Lincoln International, Inc.)
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