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HGHamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.Buy Wait6.5·$31.72+0.60%
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Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Reinsurance

Wait for pullback to $28.80. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $31.72. Engine's entry $28.80 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.4): -1.5.

Hamilton Insurance Group is a global specialty insurance and reinsurance company founded in Bermuda, operating through three underwriting platforms—Hamilton Global Specialty, Hamilton Select, and Hamilton Re—across London, Dublin, Bermuda, and the U.S. The company wrote $2.9... Read more

$31.72+11.3% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 5 Insurance - Reinsurance
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield16.87%
Entry $28.80(support + ATR)Stop $27.58Target $32.05(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1Setup A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$34.14+7.6%7 analysts
$32.05our TP
$31.72price
$34.14mean
$27
$38

Wait for pullback to $28.80. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $31.72. Engine's entry $28.80 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.4): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-6.4% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.

About Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.

Hamilton Insurance Group's two reporting segments generated $2.9 billion in gross premiums in 2025—the International segment accounted for $1.5 billion (52%) and the Bermuda segment for $1.4 billion (48%)—with combined ratios of 95.0% and 90.9%, respectively. The company held $9.6 billion in total assets and $2.8 billion in shareholders' equity at December 31, 2025, carrying a 5.0% financial leverage ratio. An AM Best 'A' rating upgrade in April 2024 expanded the company's reach with cedants and distribution partners in the global reinsurance market.

Hamilton earns underwriting income across property, casualty, and specialty lines through three platforms. The International segment operates through Lloyd's Syndicate 4000 (Hamilton Global Specialty), targeting commercial specialty and casualty risks for medium-to-large U.S. E&S accounts, and through Hamilton Select, a domestic E&S carrier serving small-to-mid-sized clients. The Bermuda segment (Hamilton Re) writes global property, casualty, and specialty reinsurance plus high-excess specialty insurance for large U.S. commercial risks. Gross premiums grew from $2.0 billion in 2023 to $2.9 billion in 2025, propelled by expansion in marine, financial lines, and cyber. The $6.2 billion investment portfolio combines a traditional investment-grade fixed income sleeve (Aa3 average rating, 3.4-year duration) with the TS Hamilton Fund managed by Two Sigma, which targets low-correlated absolute returns across equity and macro strategies.

Show full overview

Two Sigma manages $2.2 billion—37% of total invested assets—through a rolling three-year commitment with the current term expiring June 30, 2028. Withdrawals of capital at or below the minimum commitment amount require six months' notice and a monthly cap of 1/12th of that tranche, limiting flexibility. The TS Hamilton Fund produced net returns of 16.0%, 16.3%, and 7.6% in 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively, though the 10-K explicitly flags that historical performance may not be indicative of future results and that Hamilton cannot control the fund's asset allocation or investment decisions. In April 2026, Hamilton Re replaced the prior Commitment Agreement with a new Investment Agreement committing to maintain no less than $1.8 billion or 60% of net tangible assets in the fund.

See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Reinsurance

From Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.4): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.2
P/E (Fwd)6.7
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA2.3
Profit Mgn21.7%
ROE33.7%
Rev Growth-2.2%
Beta0.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.96bearish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$35+10.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMcounterpartyTwo Sigma (TS Hamilton Fund)37%
    10-K Item 1: 'Two Sigma manages $2.2 billion, or 37%, of our total invested assets, via our investment in the TS Hamilton Fund'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-02Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Prior Commitment Agreement (dated July 1, 2023, as amended January 1, 2025) with Two Sigma was superseded by a new Investment Agreement on April 1, 2026. Hamilton Re committed to maintain ≥$1.8 billion or 60% of net tangible assets in the TS Hamilton Fund.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-06Item 5.02LOW
    At the 2026 Annual General Meeting on May 5, 2026, shareholders elected first-time nominee Peter W. Wilson to Hamilton Insurance Group's Board of Directors. Mr. Wilson was appointed to the Technology, Nominating and Governance, and Underwriting and Risk Committees. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $28.43Resistance $32.70

Price Targets

$28
$29
$32
A.Upside+1.0%
A.R:R-0.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.5%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HG stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $28.80. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $31.72. Engine's entry $28.80 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.4): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-6.4% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $32.05 (+1.0%), stop $27.58 (−15.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.7:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.05 (+11.3% upside). Target $32.05 (+1.0%), stop $27.58 (−15.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.7:1. Stop-loss: $27.58.

What are the risks of investing in HG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.4): -1.5.

Is HG overvalued or undervalued?

Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. trades at a P/E of 5.2 (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HG?

16 analysts cover HG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $34.

What does Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. do?Hamilton Insurance Group is a global specialty insurance and reinsurance company founded in Bermuda, operating through...

Hamilton Insurance Group is a global specialty insurance and reinsurance company founded in Bermuda, operating through three underwriting platforms—Hamilton Global Specialty, Hamilton Select, and Hamilton Re—across London, Dublin, Bermuda, and the U.S. The company wrote $2.9 billion in gross premiums in 2025, backed by $9.6 billion in total assets, with 37% of invested assets managed by Two Sigma through the TS Hamilton Fund.

Related stocks: SPNT (SiriusPoint Ltd.) · RNR (RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.) · RGA (Reinsurance Group of America, I) · EG (Everest Group, Ltd.)
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