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Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Reinsurance

Wait for pullback to $29.96. BUY gates pass at $32.02, but concentration risk — Counterparty: Two Sigma / TS Hamilton Fund (37.0%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $29.96 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Hamilton Insurance Group is a Bermuda-based global specialty insurance and reinsurance company with $2.9 billion in 2025 gross premiums written through Hamilton Global Specialty (International segment, 52% of GPW) and Hamilton Re (Bermuda segment, 48% of GPW). Investment returns... Read more

$32.02+10.3% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#1 of 5 Insurance - Reinsurance
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield16.54%
Entry $29.96(support + ATR)Stop $28.53Target $33.05(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1Setup A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$33.86+5.7%7 analysts
$33.05our TP
$32.02price
$33.86mean
$27
$38

Wait for pullback to $29.96. BUY gates pass at $32.02, but concentration risk — Counterparty: Two Sigma / TS Hamilton Fund (37.0%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $29.96 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-8.0% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.1 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Two Sigma / TS Hamilton Fund (37.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.4): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.3
P/E (Fwd)6.8
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA2.3
Profit Mgn21.7%
ROE33.7%
Rev Growth-2.2%
Beta0.70
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.78bearish
IV36%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyTwo Sigma / TS Hamilton Fund37%
    10-K Item 1: 'As of December 31, 2025, Two Sigma manages $2.2 billion, or 37%, of our total invested assets, via our investment in the TS Hamilton Fund.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-06Item 5.02LOW
    Peter W. Wilson elected as new director at Hamilton's 2026 Annual General Meeting (May 5, 2026); appointed to Technology, Nominating and Governance, and Underwriting and Risk Committees. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-02Item 1.01MEDIUM
    Hamilton Re entered new Investment Agreement with Two Sigma on April 1, 2026, replacing prior Commitment Agreement. New minimum commitment: lesser of $1.8B or 60% of Group net tangible assets; establishes two-tier withdrawal structure with 55-day and 6-month notice periods.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-02Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Prior Commitment Agreement dated July 1, 2023 (amended Jan 1, 2025) with Two Sigma terminated and superseded by new Investment Agreement effective April 1, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02LOW
    Marc N. Roston succeeded H. Hawes Bostic III as Magnitude Investor's shareholder-appointed director effective Feb 20, 2026. Bostic's departure not related to any disagreement. Roston joins Investments and Technology Committees.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $29.41Resistance $33.72

Price Targets

$29
$30
$33
A.Upside+3.2%
A.R:R-1.0:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HG stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $29.96. BUY gates pass at $32.02, but concentration risk — Counterparty: Two Sigma / TS Hamilton Fund (37.0%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $29.96 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-8.0% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $33.05 (+3.2%), stop $28.53 (−12.2%), Setup A.R:R 2.1:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $33.05 (+10.3% upside). Target $33.05 (+3.2%), stop $28.53 (−12.2%), Setup A.R:R 2.1:1. Stop-loss: $28.53.

What are the risks of investing in HG?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Two Sigma / TS Hamilton Fund (37.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.4): -1.5.

Is HG overvalued or undervalued?

Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. trades at a P/E of 5.3 (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HG?

16 analysts cover HG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $34.

What does Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. do?Hamilton Insurance Group is a Bermuda-based global specialty insurance and reinsurance company with $2.9 billion in...

Hamilton Insurance Group is a Bermuda-based global specialty insurance and reinsurance company with $2.9 billion in 2025 gross premiums written through Hamilton Global Specialty (International segment, 52% of GPW) and Hamilton Re (Bermuda segment, 48% of GPW). Investment returns are supplemented by Two Sigma managing $2.2 billion (37%) of total invested assets through the dedicated TS Hamilton Fund.

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