Hamilton Insurance Group combines an attractive forward valuation at 6.7x earnings with a four-quarter beat streak averaging approximately 74% above estimates, but a declining revenue trend, an elevated put-to-call ratio of 6.0, and thin near-term upside to the price target argue for patience before adding exposure.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Valuation Discount→Stable
- Revenue Decline Earnings Divergence↑Improving
- Exceptional Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Insurance - Reinsurance
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $36.47 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.3% away).
Hamilton Insurance Group is a global specialty insurance and reinsurance company founded in Bermuda, operating through three underwriting platforms—Hamilton Global Specialty, Hamilton Select, and Hamilton Re—across London, Dublin, Bermuda, and the U.S. The company wrote $2.9... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $36.47 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.3% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.3/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 106d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.
About Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.
Hamilton Insurance Group's two reporting segments generated $2.9 billion in gross premiums in 2025—the International segment accounted for $1.5 billion (52%) and the Bermuda segment for $1.4 billion (48%)—with combined ratios of 95.0% and 90.9%, respectively. The company held $9.6 billion in total assets and $2.8 billion in shareholders' equity at December 31, 2025, carrying a 5.0% financial leverage ratio. An AM Best 'A' rating upgrade in April 2024 expanded the company's reach with cedants and distribution partners in the global reinsurance market.
Hamilton earns underwriting income across property, casualty, and specialty lines through three platforms. The International segment operates through Lloyd's Syndicate 4000 (Hamilton Global Specialty), targeting commercial specialty and casualty risks for medium-to-large U.S. E&S accounts, and through Hamilton Select, a domestic E&S carrier serving small-to-mid-sized clients. The Bermuda segment (Hamilton Re) writes global property, casualty, and specialty reinsurance plus high-excess specialty insurance for large U.S. commercial risks. Gross premiums grew from $2.0 billion in 2023 to $2.9 billion in 2025, propelled by expansion in marine, financial lines, and cyber. The $6.2 billion investment portfolio combines a traditional investment-grade fixed income sleeve (Aa3 average rating, 3.4-year duration) with the TS Hamilton Fund managed by Two Sigma, which targets low-correlated absolute returns across equity and macro strategies.
Show full overview
Two Sigma manages $2.2 billion—37% of total invested assets—through a rolling three-year commitment with the current term expiring June 30, 2028. Withdrawals of capital at or below the minimum commitment amount require six months' notice and a monthly cap of 1/12th of that tranche, limiting flexibility. The TS Hamilton Fund produced net returns of 16.0%, 16.3%, and 7.6% in 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively, though the 10-K explicitly flags that historical performance may not be indicative of future results and that Hamilton cannot control the fund's asset allocation or investment decisions. In April 2026, Hamilton Re replaced the prior Commitment Agreement with a new Investment Agreement committing to maintain no less than $1.8 billion or 60% of net tangible assets in the fund.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Reinsurance
From Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 2, 2026Recent Developments — Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.
Latest news
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Hamilton Insurance Group, Raises Price Target to $43 — benzinga Nov 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) Q3 earnings: what to expect - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) Q3 earnings: what to expect - StockStory — StockStory Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) Q3 earnings: what to expect - FinancialContent — FinancialContent Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) Q3 earnings: what to expect - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 2, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:34:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMcounterpartyTwo Sigma (TS Hamilton Fund)37%10-K Item 1: 'Two Sigma manages $2.2 billion, or 37%, of our total invested assets, via our investment in the TS Hamilton Fund'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-02Item 1.02MEDIUMPrior Commitment Agreement (dated July 1, 2023, as amended January 1, 2025) with Two Sigma was superseded by a new Investment Agreement on April 1, 2026. Hamilton Re committed to maintain ≥$1.8 billion or 60% of net tangible assets in the TS Hamilton Fund.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-06Item 5.02LOWAt the 2026 Annual General Meeting on May 5, 2026, shareholders elected first-time nominee Peter W. Wilson to Hamilton Insurance Group's Board of Directors. Mr. Wilson was appointed to the Technology, Nominating and Governance, and Underwriting and Risk Committees. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $36.47 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.3% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $34.21. Score 6.3/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $33.56 reached (−8.0% from $36.47); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $34.21. Stop-loss: $34.21.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.3% away).
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. trades at a P/E of 7.0 (forward 7.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts rate HG, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 7 analysts publish price targets averaging $39.
What does Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. do?Hamilton Insurance Group is a global specialty insurance and reinsurance company founded in Bermuda, operating through...
Hamilton Insurance Group is a global specialty insurance and reinsurance company founded in Bermuda, operating through three underwriting platforms—Hamilton Global Specialty, Hamilton Select, and Hamilton Re—across London, Dublin, Bermuda, and the U.S. The company wrote $2.9 billion in gross premiums in 2025, backed by $9.6 billion in total assets, with 37% of invested assets managed by Two Sigma through the TS Hamilton Fund.