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Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Reinsurance

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $32.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.6% away).

Hamilton Insurance Group is a global specialty insurance and reinsurance company with $2.9 billion in gross premiums written in 2025, operating via Lloyd's Syndicate 4000 and HIDAC (International segment, 52% of GPW) and Hamilton Re in Bermuda (48% of GPW). Investment returns... Read more

$32.79+7.6% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#1 of 5 Insurance - Reinsurance
Entry $30.05(50-day MA)Stop $28.76Target $32.34(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1Setup A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$33.00+0.6%7 analysts
$32.34our TP
$32.79price
$33.00mean
$27
$37

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $32.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.6% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $32.79 has reached target $32.34. No upside to wait for. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.6% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.8
P/E (Fwd)6.7
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA2.4
Profit Mgn19.8%
ROE32.6%
Rev Growth29.4%
Beta0.67
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV58%elevated
Max Pain$25-23.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of intermediaries
    10-K Item 1A: 'we rely on a limited number of intermediaries for a significant portion of our business'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-02Item 1.01MEDIUM
    Hamilton Re entered new Investment Agreement with Two Sigma Hamilton Fund on April 1, 2026, committing minimum $1.8 billion or 60% of net tangible assets. Replaces prior 2023 Commitment Agreement.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-02Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Prior Commitment Agreement with Two Sigma dated July 1, 2023 (as amended January 1, 2025) terminated and replaced by new Investment Agreement effective April 1, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02LOW
    Marc Roston designated as new Magnitude Investor board designee effective February 20, 2026, replacing H. Hawes Bostic III. Departure not related to any disagreement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.6
Rsi
4.4
Ma Position
9.0
Overbought (RSI 72)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $29.65Resistance $33.00

Price Targets

$29
$30
$32
A.Upside-1.4%
A.R:R-1.3:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.4% upside)
! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $32.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.6% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $32.79 has reached target $32.34. No upside to wait for. Target $32.34 (-1.4%), stop $28.76 (−14.0%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.34 (+7.6% upside). Target $32.34 (-1.4%), stop $28.76 (−14.0%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $28.76.

What are the risks of investing in HG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.6% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5.

Is HG overvalued or undervalued?

Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. trades at a P/E of 5.8 (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HG?

15 analysts cover HG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $33.

What does Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. do?Hamilton Insurance Group is a global specialty insurance and reinsurance company with $2.9 billion in gross premiums...

Hamilton Insurance Group is a global specialty insurance and reinsurance company with $2.9 billion in gross premiums written in 2025, operating via Lloyd's Syndicate 4000 and HIDAC (International segment, 52% of GPW) and Hamilton Re in Bermuda (48% of GPW). Investment returns are generated through a unique relationship with Two Sigma's TS Hamilton Fund.

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