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GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin (GFL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Waste Management

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.85: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and... Read more

$36.85+20.1% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#4 of 7 Waste Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.25%
IncomeYield0.17%(5y avg 0.14%)Payout16.69%sustainable
Stop $34.46Target $44.27(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.1:1
Analyst target$50.89+38.1%12 analysts
$44.27our TP
$36.85price
$50.89mean
$64

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.85: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Val5.8Qual2.6Grw6.9Mom3.6Sent7.0Ins5.0Peer4.3Tech6.4Risk6.45.2OVERALL

Recent Developments — GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)99.6
P/E (Fwd)41.1
Mkt Cap$13.3B
EV/EBITDA13.2
Profit Mgn3.1%
ROE3.0%
Rev Growth5.4%
Beta0.51
Dividend0.17%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$25-32.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.1
Roa
0.9
Roe
1.0
Operating Margin
1.3
Fcf Quality
1.3
Net Margin
1.6
Moat
4.2
Current Ratio
5.5
Piotroski F
7.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 16% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.9
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Obv
5.8
Macd
7.4
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
28 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $35.53Resistance $42.00

Price Targets

$34
$44
A.Upside+20.1%
A.R:R3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GFL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.85: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $34.46. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GFL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.27 (+20.1% upside). Prior stop was $34.46. Stop-loss: $34.46.

What are the risks of investing in GFL?

Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is GFL overvalued or undervalued?

GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin trades at a P/E of 99.6 (forward 41.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GFL?

18 analysts cover GFL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $51.

What does GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin do?GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It...

GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida.

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