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GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin (GFL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Waste Management

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.12: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 1.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 6.60; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and... Read more

$40.12+12.7% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#1 of 7 Waste Management
Stop $37.28Target $45.17(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$51.92+29.4%12 analysts
$45.17our TP
$40.12price
$51.92mean
$65

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.12: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 1.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 6.60; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.70, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Val5.4Qual3.1Grw7.2Mom4.6Sent6.9Ins5.0Peer5.4Tech5.7Risk5.15.4OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Earnings detected in news
Risks
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.9), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.03% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)109.0
P/E (Fwd)40.4
Mkt Cap$14.6B
EV/EBITDA13.8
Profit Mgn58.0%
ROE3.3%
Rev Growth7.3%
Beta0.53
Dividend0.16%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C6.60bearish
IV48%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.1
Roa
0.8
Roe
1.1
Fcf Quality
1.7
Current Ratio
2.3
Operating Margin
2.5
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Net Margin
10.0
Strong margins: 58%Earnings quality RED FLAG: 21% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
32 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $36.96Resistance $45.35

Price Targets

$37
$45
A.Upside+12.6%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.9), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.03% of cap)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GFL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.12: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 1.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 6.60; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $37.28. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GFL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.17 (+12.7% upside). Prior stop was $37.28. Stop-loss: $37.28.

What are the risks of investing in GFL?

Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.9), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.03% of cap).

Is GFL overvalued or undervalued?

GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin trades at a P/E of 109.0 (forward 40.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GFL?

19 analysts cover GFL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $52.

What does GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin do?GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It...

GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida.

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