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GFLGFL Environmental Inc. SubordinSell5.4·$43.55
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

GFL's free cash flow conversion at just 16% of net income, a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, and quality below the minimum threshold collectively render the setup unattractive despite a wide gap to analyst price targets.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Minimum Floor↓Deteriorating
  • Free Cash Flow Quality Red Flag→Stable
  • Confirmed Downtrend Death Cross↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin (GFL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Waste Management

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.55: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.07; Below-average business quality.

GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and... Read more

$43.55+1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#5 of 9 Waste Management
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield2.09%
IncomeYield0.16%(5y avg 0.14%)Payout17.16%sustainable
Stop $41.27Target $44.10(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$50.92+16.9%13 analysts
$44.10our TP
$43.55price
$50.92mean
$40
$63

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.55: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.07; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-16

Recent Developments — GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin

Generated 2026-10-16T11:47:10Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202613d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (1.3% upside)
Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)46.6
Mkt Cap$15.7B
EV/EBITDA15.4
Profit Mgn-2.9%
ROE-2.3%
Rev Growth16.3%
Beta0.51
Dividend0.16%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C2.07bearish
IV92%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -2.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.8
Operating Margin
2.8
Current Ratio
3.0
Moat
4.2
Piotroski F
5.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.7
52w Position
8.1
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)Momentum 7.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $39.71Resistance $43.85

Price Targets

$41
$44
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GFL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.55: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.07; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $41.27. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GFL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.10 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $41.27. Stop-loss: $41.27.

What are the risks of investing in GFL?

Target reached (1.3% upside); Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).

Is GFL overvalued or undervalued?

GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 46.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GFL?

18 analysts cover GFL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $51.

What does GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin do?GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It...

GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida.

Related stocks: CLH (Clean Harbors, Inc.) · RSG (Republic Services, Inc.) · CWST (Casella Waste Systems, Inc.) · WM (Waste Management, Inc.) · WCN (Waste Connections, Inc.)
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