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Waste Management, Inc. (WM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Waste Management

Sell if holding. At $219.59, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Waste Management, Inc. is a holding company and all operations are conducted by its subsidiaries. When the terms "the Company," "we," "us" or "our" are used in this document, those terms refer to Waste Management, Inc., together with its consolidated subsidiaries and... Read more

$219.59+4.9% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#1 of 7 Waste Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.39%
IncomeYield1.59%(5y avg 1.49%)Payout49.49%sustainable
Stop $210.47Target $230.44(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$256.04+16.6%25 analysts
$230.44our TP
$219.59price
$256.04mean
$210
$285

Sell if holding. At $219.59, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 68d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Waste Management, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.9%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.2
P/E (Fwd)24.0
Mkt Cap$89.3B
EV/EBITDA14.6
Profit Mgn11.0%
ROE29.9%
Rev Growth3.5%
Beta0.49
Dividend1.59%
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.23bearish
IV33%normal
Max Pain$330+50.3% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-13Item 5.02MEDIUM
    [10.1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926027703/tm268718d1_ex10-1.htm) | | [Transition success bonus letter agreement dated March 13, 2026.](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926027703/tm268718d1_ex10-1.htm) | | 104 | | Cover Page Interactive Data Fi...
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Performance Calculation Date ("PCD") | | As of December 31, 2028; award (if any) paid out after certification by the Committee of actual level of achievement ("payment date").
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 68d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $212.15Resistance $235.62

Price Targets

$210
$230
A.Upside+4.9%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (68d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $219.59, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $210.47. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the WM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $230.44 (+4.9% upside). Prior stop was $210.47. Stop-loss: $210.47.

What are the risks of investing in WM?

Thin upside margin: 4.9%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

Is WM overvalued or undervalued?

Waste Management, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.2 (forward 24.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WM?

39 analysts cover WM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $256.

What does Waste Management, Inc. do?Waste Management, Inc. is a holding company and all operations are conducted by its subsidiaries. When the terms "the...

Waste Management, Inc. is a holding company and all operations are conducted by its subsidiaries. When the terms "the Company," "we," "us" or "our" are used in this document, those terms refer to Waste Management, Inc., together with its consolidated subsidiaries and consolidated variable interest entities. When we use the term "WMI," we are referring only to Waste Management, Inc., the parent holding company.

Related stocks: RSG (Republic Services, Inc.) · GFL (GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin) · WCN (Waste Connections, Inc.) · CLH (Clean Harbors, Inc.)