Value
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 42.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.29
GFL · Why this verdict
Why GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin (GFL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The overall quality score sits at 2.6, below the 4.0 minimum floor, with weak return on assets, minimal operating margin, and the absence of a competitive moat — a profile that fails the baseline quality threshold required for holding a position. Warnings | Quality metrics recover such that return on equity, operating margin, and free cash flow conversion collectively push the quality assessment above the 4.0 floor within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski financial-health score of 7 out of 9 indicates balance-sheet discipline is intact, and analyst consensus still implies approximately 21% upside — the quality weakness may already be reflected in current prices. | ||
Free cash flow represents only 16% of reported net income, a red-flag earnings quality signal indicating that the vast majority of reported profits are not converting into cash — a structural concern that undermines reliance on headline earnings. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion rises above 50% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming that earnings quality is improving. | →Stable |
| CounterLow free cash flow relative to net income in a given period can reflect elevated capital expenditure or working capital build associated with growth initiatives; if reinvestment normalises, conversion could recover sharply. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average, which itself is declining at approximately 4.5% per month — a configuration consistent with a confirmed downtrend that has triggered a hard technical block on new positions. Momentum breakdown | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive for at least 4 consecutive weeks, signalling a genuine trend reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is improving and RSI is near the mid-range at 52, suggesting downward momentum may be decelerating; a recovery in earnings delivery could catalyse a technical trend reversal before the moving average fully inflects. | ||
The company has split earnings results evenly over the last four quarters — two beats and two misses — with the most recent quarter missing estimates by approximately 35%, signalling unreliable execution against analyst forecasts. Earnings | The company delivers positive earnings surprises for 3 consecutive quarters, demonstrating a sustained return to reliable delivery. | →Stable |
| CounterOne of the two beats delivered an 88% positive surprise, suggesting the business can produce strong upside when conditions align; inconsistency may reflect lumpy project timing rather than a deteriorating earnings trend. | ||
The overall quality score sits at 2.6, below the 4.0 minimum floor, with weak return on assets, minimal operating margin, and the absence of a competitive moat — a profile that fails the baseline quality threshold required for holding a position.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality metrics recover such that return on equity, operating margin, and free cash flow conversion collectively push the quality assessment above the 4.0 floor within 12 months.
CounterA Piotroski financial-health score of 7 out of 9 indicates balance-sheet discipline is intact, and analyst consensus still implies approximately 21% upside — the quality weakness may already be reflected in current prices.
Free cash flow represents only 16% of reported net income, a red-flag earnings quality signal indicating that the vast majority of reported profits are not converting into cash — a structural concern that undermines reliance on headline earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion rises above 50% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming that earnings quality is improving.
CounterLow free cash flow relative to net income in a given period can reflect elevated capital expenditure or working capital build associated with growth initiatives; if reinvestment normalises, conversion could recover sharply.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average, which itself is declining at approximately 4.5% per month — a configuration consistent with a confirmed downtrend that has triggered a hard technical block on new positions.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive for at least 4 consecutive weeks, signalling a genuine trend reversal.
CounterMACD is improving and RSI is near the mid-range at 52, suggesting downward momentum may be decelerating; a recovery in earnings delivery could catalyse a technical trend reversal before the moving average fully inflects.
The company has split earnings results evenly over the last four quarters — two beats and two misses — with the most recent quarter missing estimates by approximately 35%, signalling unreliable execution against analyst forecasts.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company delivers positive earnings surprises for 3 consecutive quarters, demonstrating a sustained return to reliable delivery.
CounterOne of the two beats delivered an 88% positive surprise, suggesting the business can produce strong upside when conditions align; inconsistency may reflect lumpy project timing rather than a deteriorating earnings trend.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
GFL's free cash flow conversion at just 16% of net income, a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, and quality below the minimum threshold collectively render the setup unattractive despite a wide gap to analyst price targets.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.0 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.1 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 1.3 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 16% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 8.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.30 (n=3)
- ▸Analyst upside: 31%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.0 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 4.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| put call | 2.8 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.3 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.58
- ▸High IV: 71%
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.9 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 18.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.6>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.66
Upside
+13.7%
Downside
8.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 6.9 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 6.9, Momentum at 6.6, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Quality at 2.6, Technical at 2.9, and Peer rank at 4.7. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.66 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Free Cash Flow Quality Red Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion rises above 50% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Confirmed Downtrend Death Cross
Trip ifPrice crosses above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P3Inconsistent Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 3 consecutive quarters.
- P4Quality Below Minimum Floor
Trip ifOperating margin expands above 10% for 2 consecutive quarters, signalling a meaningful improvement in the quality floor.