Waste Connections has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with consistent low-single-digit positive surprises and holds an 18.4% upside to analyst consensus targets, but trades in a confirmed price downtrend below the 200-day moving average with weak organic growth.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Reliability→Stable
- Confirmed Price Downtrend Below 200ma→Stable
- Analyst Consensus Upside 18 Percent→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Industrials · Waste Management
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $155.56 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous waste collection, transfer and disposal services, including by rail, along with resource recovery primarily through recycling and renewable fuels generation, in 46... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $155.56 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — Waste Connections, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Waste Connections (WCN) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Waste Connections (WCN) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo! Finance Canada — Yahoo! Finance Canada positive
- NEWS Waste Connections tops Q2 estimates, raises outlook as margins expand (WCN:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Waste Connections (WCN) Releases Q2 2026 Earnings: Revenue Up 6.4%, EPS Grows 4.5% - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS Waste Connections Raises 2026 Outlook After Strong Quarter - TipRanks — TipRanks positive
Generated 2026-09-25T23:46:58Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $155.56 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $150.26. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $181.84 (+16.9% upside). Prior stop was $150.26. Stop-loss: $150.26.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.
Waste Connections, Inc. trades at a P/E of 37.8 (forward 25.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover WCN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $202.
What does Waste Connections, Inc. do?Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous...
Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous waste collection, transfer and disposal services, including by rail, along with resource recovery primarily through recycling and renewable fuels generation, in 46 states in the U.S. and six provinces in Canada.