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Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellHigh Confidence

Industrials · Waste Management

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $158.92: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous waste collection, transfer and disposal services, including by rail, along with resource recovery primarily through recycling and renewable fuels generation, in 46... Read more

$158.92+15.6% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#3 of 7 Waste Management
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.62%
IncomeYield0.88%(5y avg 0.68%)Payout32.44%sustainable
Stop $152.30Target $183.67(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$204.08+28.4%26 analysts
$183.67our TP
$158.92price
$204.08mean
$305

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $158.92: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Waste Connections, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)38.8
P/E (Fwd)25.7
Mkt Cap$40.4B
EV/EBITDA16.2
Profit Mgn11.0%
ROE13.1%
Rev Growth6.4%
Beta0.54
Dividend0.88%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.71neutral
IV29%low
Max Pain$180+13.3% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.** On March 18, 2026, upon the recommendation of its Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Waste Conne...
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.5
Revenue Growth
4.1
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.6>=5.5A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $148.84Resistance $170.07

Price Targets

$152
$184
A.Upside+15.6%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts20
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$204

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WCN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $158.92: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Prior stop was $152.30. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the WCN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $183.67 (+15.6% upside). Prior stop was $152.30. Stop-loss: $152.30.

What are the risks of investing in WCN?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Is WCN overvalued or undervalued?

Waste Connections, Inc. trades at a P/E of 38.8 (forward 25.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WCN?

20 analysts cover WCN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $204.

What does Waste Connections, Inc. do?Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous...

Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous waste collection, transfer and disposal services, including by rail, along with resource recovery primarily through recycling and renewable fuels generation, in 46 states in the U.S. and six provinces in Canada.

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