Waste Connections has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with consistent low-single-digit positive surprises and holds an 18.4% upside to analyst consensus targets, but trades in a confirmed price downtrend below the 200-day moving average with weak organic growth.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Reliability→Stable
- Confirmed Price Downtrend Below 200ma→Stable
- Analyst Consensus Upside 18 Percent→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Industrials · Waste Management
Sell if holding. At $167.62, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.
Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous waste collection, transfer and disposal services, including by rail, along with resource recovery primarily through recycling and renewable fuels generation, in 46... Read more
Sell if holding. At $167.62, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Waste Connections, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Waste Connections (WCN) Surpasses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Waste Connections’s (NYSE:WCN) Q1 CY2026 Sales Beat Estimates - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS Waste Connections’s (NYSE:WCN) Q1 CY2026 Sales Beat Estimates - FinancialContent — FinancialContent positive
- NEWS Waste Connections Delivers Strong Q1 2026 Results, Boosts Outlook - TipRanks — TipRanks positive
- NEWS Waste Connections tops Q1 estimates as revenue, profit beat targets (WCN:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
Generated 2026-07-07T14:22:13Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $167.62, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $159.52. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $183.53 (+9.5% upside). Prior stop was $159.52. Stop-loss: $159.52.
Thin upside margin: 9.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Weak overall score: 5.0/10.
Waste Connections, Inc. trades at a P/E of 41.2 (forward 27.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover WCN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $204.
What does Waste Connections, Inc. do?Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous...
Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous waste collection, transfer and disposal services, including by rail, along with resource recovery primarily through recycling and renewable fuels generation, in 46 states in the U.S. and six provinces in Canada.