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Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Waste Management

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $85.10: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Casella Waste Systems is a vertically integrated regional solid waste company serving New England, New York, and Mid-Atlantic states through Eastern, Western, Mid-Atlantic, and Resource Solutions segments, with 2025 revenues of approximately $1.84B across the four segments.... Read more

$85.10+10.6% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#5 of 7 Waste Management
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.00%
Stop $81.93Target $97.44(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$112.00+31.6%10 analysts
$97.44our TP
$85.10price
$112.00mean
$130

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $85.10: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Casella Waste Systems, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: New England, New York, Pennsylvania and other Mid-Atlantic states
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)800.9
P/E (Fwd)58.7
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA16.5
Profit Mgn0.4%
ROE0.5%
Rev Growth9.6%
Beta0.77
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.50bearish
IV69%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNew England, New York, Pennsylvania and other Mid-Atlantic states
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our operations and customers are concentrated principally in New England, New York, Pennsylvania and other Mid-Atlantic states'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    SVP and COO of Solid Waste Operations Sean Steves resigned effective March 20, 2026 to pursue other opportunities. Company initiated search for successor. No disagreement with operations, policies, or practices cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.0
Bollinger
1.5
52w Position
4.5

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.2
Net Margin
0.2
Operating Margin
1.1
Roa
1.2
Gross Margin
2.7
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.2
Piotroski F
8.9
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $75.97Resistance $89.48

Price Targets

$82
$97
A.Upside+14.5%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CWST stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $85.10: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Prior stop was $81.93. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CWST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $97.44 (+10.6% upside). Prior stop was $81.93. Stop-loss: $81.93.

What are the risks of investing in CWST?

Concentration risk — Geographic: New England, New York, Pennsylvania and other Mid-Atlantic states; Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is CWST overvalued or undervalued?

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 800.9 (forward 58.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CWST?

18 analysts cover CWST with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $112.

What does Casella Waste Systems, Inc. do?Casella Waste Systems is a vertically integrated regional solid waste company serving New England, New York, and...

Casella Waste Systems is a vertically integrated regional solid waste company serving New England, New York, and Mid-Atlantic states through Eastern, Western, Mid-Atlantic, and Resource Solutions segments, with 2025 revenues of approximately $1.84B across the four segments. Revenue comes from collection, disposal tipping fees, recycling, and organics services under multi-year contracts with commercial, municipal, and residential customers. The company has made 76 acquisitions since 2018 and operates 9 landfills across the Northeast.

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