Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Waste Management
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $78.61: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
Casella Waste Systems is a regional vertically integrated solid waste company providing collection, disposal, transfer, recycling, and organics services across 11 northeastern U.S. states, headquartered in Vermont. Revenue is earned from residential, commercial, municipal, and... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $78.61: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicNew England, New York, Pennsylvania and other Mid-Atlantic states10-K Item 1A: 'Our operations and customers are concentrated principally in New England, New York, Pennsylvania and other Mid-Atlantic states'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-10Item 5.02MEDIUMSean Steves resigned as SVP and COO of Solid Waste Operations effective March 20, 2026 to pursue other opportunities outside the waste industry. Company initiated search for next COO of Solid Waste Operations. No successor named. Resignation not due to any disagreement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $78.61: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $73.69. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $98.14 (+24.8% upside). Prior stop was $73.69. Stop-loss: $73.69.
Concentration risk — Geographic: New England, New York, Pennsylvania and other Mid-Atlantic states; Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 650.9 (forward 51.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover CWST with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $113.
What does Casella Waste Systems, Inc. do?Casella Waste Systems is a regional vertically integrated solid waste company providing collection, disposal, transfer,...
Casella Waste Systems is a regional vertically integrated solid waste company providing collection, disposal, transfer, recycling, and organics services across 11 northeastern U.S. states, headquartered in Vermont. Revenue is earned from residential, commercial, municipal, and industrial customers through collection fees, disposal charges, and recycling commodity sales.