Four consecutive earnings beats averaging 35% above consensus and free cash flow conversion far above net income speak to operational discipline, but a forward multiple near 59x, razor-thin margins that keep quality below the minimum threshold, and a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average together limit the near-term investment case.
Thesis pillars
- Premium Multiple Limits Rerating→Stable
- Earnings Beat Execution→Stable
- Exceptional Free Cash Flow→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026· older than 90 days
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Industrials · Waste Management
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $96.23: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality.
Casella Waste Systems is a regional, vertically integrated solid waste services company with operations in 11 northeastern U.S. states, providing collection, disposal, transfer, recycling, and organics services. Revenue reached approximately $1.84 billion in fiscal 2025 across... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $96.23: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
About Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
Casella Waste Systems generated approximately $1.84 billion in total revenues in fiscal year 2025 across 11 northeastern U.S. states, split among four segments: Western ($663 million), Eastern ($473 million), Resource Solutions ($360 million), and Mid-Atlantic ($341 million). The company employed approximately 5,600 people as of January 2026, about 270 covered by collective bargaining agreements, and collection pricing advanced 5.0% in fiscal 2025.
Casella earns revenue through per-route collection fees under one-to-five year commercial service agreements and per-ton tipping fees at its nine Subtitle D and C&D landfills and 72 transfer stations. A floating energy and environmental fee program partially offsets diesel exposure; the company consumed about 15 million gallons of diesel in solid waste operations in fiscal 2025. The recycling business deploys a sustainability recycling adjustment fee that floats inversely with commodity prices, reducing downside exposure to paper, plastics, and metals market cycles. Municipal collection contracts are subject to periodic competitive bidding and compete against larger national operators with significantly greater financial resources, including those with adjacent market positions in the Northeast. Casella closed nine acquisitions in fiscal 2025 with over $110 million in total annualized revenues.
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Operations and customers are concentrated principally in New England, New York, Pennsylvania, and other Mid-Atlantic states, making results susceptible to regional economic cycles and weather events. Near-term disposal capacity constraints compound this concentration: the 10-K discloses that Casella expects to consume all remaining permitted capacity at the NCES Landfill in Bethlehem, New Hampshire during fiscal year 2027, while the landfill under development in Dalton, New Hampshire is unlikely to be permitted and operational by that deadline. The Ontario County Landfill in Seneca, New York is set to close at the end of fiscal year 2028 when its 25-year operating agreement expires.
See also: Industrials · Waste Management
From Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 21, 2026Recent Developments — Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on Casella Waste Systems, Raises Price Target to $99 — benzinga Oct 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS UBS Downgrades Casella Waste Systems to Neutral, Lowers Price Target to $95 — benzinga Oct 21, 2026 negative
- NEWS UBS Downgrades Casella Waste Systems to Neutral From Buy — fiscal.ai Oct 21, 2026 negative
- NEWS 'Jana Partners Built Stake In Casella Waste Systems, Urges Management To Improve Margins And Returns On Capital' - Reute — benzinga Oct 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS If You Invested $1000 In Casella Waste Systems Stock 15 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today — benzinga Oct 9, 2026
Latest item Oct 21, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:59:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicNew England and Mid-Atlantic states10-K Item 1A: 'Our operations and customers are concentrated principally in New England, New York, Pennsylvania and other Mid-Atlantic states'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $96.23: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $89.49. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $92.66 reached (−3.7% from $96.23); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $89.49. Stop-loss: $89.49.
Target reached (-3.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 1069.2 (forward 67.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts rate CWST, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 10 analysts publish price targets averaging $107.
What does Casella Waste Systems, Inc. do?Casella Waste Systems is a regional, vertically integrated solid waste services company with operations in 11...
Casella Waste Systems is a regional, vertically integrated solid waste services company with operations in 11 northeastern U.S. states, providing collection, disposal, transfer, recycling, and organics services. Revenue reached approximately $1.84 billion in fiscal 2025 across four segments, led by the Western region ($663 million). The company has grown through 76 acquisitions since 2018, densifying its footprint in New England, New York, and the Mid-Atlantic.