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General Dynamics Corporation (GD) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $343.10 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (70.0%).

General Dynamics is a global aerospace and defense company with four segments: Aerospace (Gulfstream business jets, Jet Aviation), Marine Systems (nuclear submarines, destroyers), Combat Systems (Abrams tanks, Stryker vehicles), and Technologies (GDIT IT services, Mission... Read more

$343.10+2.7% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#27 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.70%
IncomeYield1.77%(5y avg 2.06%)Payout38.33%sustainable
Stop $325.59Target $352.40(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$391.55+14.1%21 analysts
$352.40our TP
$343.10price
$391.55mean
$313
$444

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $343.10 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (70.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — General Dynamics Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (70.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.6
P/E (Fwd)19.0
Mkt Cap$92.8B
EV/EBITDA15.2
Profit Mgn8.1%
ROE18.0%
Rev Growth10.3%
Beta0.34
Dividend1.77%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV31%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. government70%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 70% of our consolidated revenue was from the U.S. government.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $306.77Resistance $353.57

Price Targets

$326
$352
A.Upside+2.7%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.7% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $343.10 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (70.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $325.59. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $352.40 (+2.7% upside). Prior stop was $325.59. Stop-loss: $325.59.

What are the risks of investing in GD?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (70.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Is GD overvalued or undervalued?

General Dynamics Corporation trades at a P/E of 21.6 (forward 19.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GD?

33 analysts cover GD with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $392.

What does General Dynamics Corporation do?General Dynamics is a global aerospace and defense company with four segments: Aerospace (Gulfstream business jets, Jet...

General Dynamics is a global aerospace and defense company with four segments: Aerospace (Gulfstream business jets, Jet Aviation), Marine Systems (nuclear submarines, destroyers), Combat Systems (Abrams tanks, Stryker vehicles), and Technologies (GDIT IT services, Mission Systems). Approximately 70% of consolidated revenue came from the U.S. government in 2025.

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