An entertainment holding company posting 59% revenue growth and exceptional free-cash-flow conversion of 295% relative to net income carries a favorable risk/reward of 2.2-to-1, but a forward P/E above 33 times earnings and a confirmed near-term downtrend mean the setup is better suited to patient holders than aggressive new entrants at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Revenue Growth Rate↓Deteriorating
- Superior Free Cash Conversion↓Deteriorating
- Rich Valuation Limits New Buyers↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026· older than 90 days
Liberty Media Corporation - Ser (FWONA) Stock Analysis
Communication Services · Entertainment
Sell if holding. At $91.03, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).
Liberty Media Corporation owns the exclusive commercial rights to the F1 Championship and the MotoGP Championship, staging 24 Formula 1 Events across 21 countries in 2025 with viewership across approximately 200 territories. Revenue flows from media rights (31.3% of Formula 1... Read more
Sell if holding. At $91.03, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Liberty Media Corporation - Ser
About Liberty Media Corporation - Ser
Exclusive commercial rights to the F1 Championship—covering 24 events in 21 countries, drawing hundreds of millions of television viewers across approximately 200 territories in 2025, with peak live race-weekend crowds exceeding 450,000—anchor Liberty Media Corporation's portfolio alongside the MotoGP Championship. Formula 1's principal 2025 revenue segments were media rights (31.3% of total revenue), race promotion (26.7%), and sponsorship (21.7%), all operating under multi-year contracts with annual fee escalators. Both motorsport championships are headquartered primarily in the United Kingdom and Spain.
Formula 1 sells broadcast rights under Television Rights Agreements typically lasting three to five years, reaching broadcasters including ESPN (U.S. and Latin America), Sky (UK, Germany, Italy), Canal+ (France), DAZN (Spain), and beIN Sports (Asia and MENA), among more than 50 agreements worldwide. Race promoters stage events under three-to-seven year contracts with annual escalators tied to CPI or fixed percentages up to 5% per year; the Las Vegas Grand Prix is directly promoted by Formula 1, which retains ticket and commercial revenue. Sponsorship arrangements covering global partner status, official supplier designations, and trackside packages typically run three to five years. The 2026 Concorde Agreement, finalized in 2025, commits all Formula 1 Teams through the 2030 season and establishes the Prize Fund as a percentage of Formula 1's Prize Fund Adjusted EBIT, including a heritage payment to Ferrari. MotoGP, acquired in 2023, adds additional race promotion, broadcast, and sponsorship revenues.
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Formula 1's entire commercial operation rests on the 100-Year Agreements with the FIA, granting an exclusive license effective January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2110. The FIA may terminate this license upon an unpermitted change of control or material breach—a termination the filing states could cause Formula 1 to discontinue its operations and lead to the termination of substantially all of Formula 1's commercial contracts. Liberty Media obtained FIA approval of its 2017 acquisition under these agreements, but any future change of control that lacks FIA pre-approval could trigger termination regardless of operational performance.
See also: Communication Services · Entertainment
From Liberty Media Corporation - Ser's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — Liberty Media Corporation - Ser
Latest news
- NEWS FWONA Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 1.24B USD - TradingView — TradingView Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Evergreen Capital Management LLC Makes New $1.03 Million Investment in Liberty Media Corporation - Liberty Formula One S — MarketBeat Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Liberty Media Corporation - Series A Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $115.54, Implies 41% Upside - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Liberty Media Corporation (NASDAQ:FWONA) Relative Volume Hits 2.70 - Kalkine India — Kalkine India Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Trust Co. of Vermont Buys Shares of 18,060 Liberty Media Corporation - Liberty Formula One Series A $FWONA - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Aug 19, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:10Z.
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $91.03, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $86.55. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $96.57 (+6.1% upside). Prior stop was $86.55. Stop-loss: $86.55.
Thin upside margin: 6.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.
Liberty Media Corporation - Ser trades at a P/E of 111.0 (forward 37.8). TrendMatrix value score: 2.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts rate FWONA, with a consensus score of 4.3/5. 6 analysts publish price targets averaging $111.
What does Liberty Media Corporation - Ser do?Liberty Media Corporation owns the exclusive commercial rights to the F1 Championship and the MotoGP Championship,...
Liberty Media Corporation owns the exclusive commercial rights to the F1 Championship and the MotoGP Championship, staging 24 Formula 1 Events across 21 countries in 2025 with viewership across approximately 200 territories. Revenue flows from media rights (31.3% of Formula 1 total revenue in 2025), race promotion (26.7%), and sponsorship (21.7%), all under multi-year contracts with annual fee escalators.