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VSE Corporation (VSEC) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $158.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Customer Group (20.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).

VSE Corporation is a provider of aftermarket parts distribution and MRO services for commercial, business, and general aviation operators globally through its single Aviation segment, with ~1,600 employees. Revenue comes from parts supply, distribution, and component and engine... Read more

$158.66+38.7% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#11 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.34%
IncomeYield0.24%(5y avg 0.59%)Payout13.84%sustainable
Stop $151.53Target $220.00(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$252.88+59.4%8 analysts
$220.00our TP
$158.66price
$252.88mean
$270

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $158.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Customer Group (20.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — VSE Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 39%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Customer Group (20.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)58.1
P/E (Fwd)28.9
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA21.5
Profit Mgn4.2%
ROE3.8%
Rev Growth26.8%
Beta1.25
Dividend0.24%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV66%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerCustomer Group20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company has material customer concentration within its business operations. A group of affiliated customers under common ownership (the "Customer Group") collectively accounted for approximately 20% of the Company's revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume
5.9
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.0
Value Rank
4.2
Growth Rank
7.3
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $156.22Resistance $212.58

Price Targets

$152
$220
A.Upside+38.7%
A.R:R2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VSEC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $158.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Customer Group (20.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $151.53. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VSEC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $220.00 (+38.7% upside). Prior stop was $151.53. Stop-loss: $151.53.

What are the risks of investing in VSEC?

Concentration risk — Customer: Customer Group (20.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is VSEC overvalued or undervalued?

VSE Corporation trades at a P/E of 58.1 (forward 28.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VSEC?

15 analysts cover VSEC with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $253.

What does VSE Corporation do?VSE Corporation is a provider of aftermarket parts distribution and MRO services for commercial, business, and general...

VSE Corporation is a provider of aftermarket parts distribution and MRO services for commercial, business, and general aviation operators globally through its single Aviation segment, with ~1,600 employees. Revenue comes from parts supply, distribution, and component and engine accessory repair for airlines, cargo carriers, MRO integrators, and business aviation customers.

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