VSE Corporation (VSEC) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the VSEC stock price target?

Take-profit $226.70 (+41.5% upside). Target $226.70 (+40.4%), stop $154.80 (−4.3%), A.R:R 2.9:1.

Q: What are the risks of investing in VSEC?

Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors; Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum; EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d.

Q: Is VSEC overvalued or undervalued?

VSE Corporation trades at a P/E of 63.3 (forward 27.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Overall verdict: Hold.

Q: What do analysts say about VSEC?

15 analysts cover VSEC with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $261.

Oversold Bounce setup

HoldModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $161.46, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

$161.46+41.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#8 of 46 Aerospace & Defense

Stop $154.80Target $226.70(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.9:1

Analyst target$260.57+61.4%7 analysts

$226.70our TP

$161.46price

$260.57mean

$270

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $161.46, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 22, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)

Strong growth profile

Analyst upside: 42%

Risks

Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Negative momentum

Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)63.3

P/E (Fwd)27.4

Mkt Cap$4.5B

EV/EBITDA28.8

Profit Mgn1.1%

ROE4.4%

Rev Growth32.4%

Beta1.43

Dividend0.25%

Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.57bearish

IV90%elevated

Max Pain$120-25.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

MEDIUMCustomerCustomer Group20%
10-K Item 1A: 'A group of affiliated customers under common ownership (the "Customer Group") collectively accounted for approximately 20% of the Company's revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.015%0.90

Quality4.715%0.70

Growth10.015%1.50

Momentum3.010%0.30

Sentiment6.610%0.66

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank3.510%0.35

Technical Setup7.45%0.37

Risk Profile3.65%0.18

Catalyst5.55%0.28

Overall (Σ contributions)5.74

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

2.2

Rsi

3.0

Volume

8.6

Capitulation risk (RSI 22, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

2.6

Value Rank

3.9

Growth Rank

7.7

GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

22 · Oversold

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $159.59Resistance $232.61

Price Targets

$155

$227

A.Upside+40.4%

A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is VSEC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $161.46, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 22, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $226.70 (+40.4%), stop $154.80 (−4.3%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VSEC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $226.70 (+41.5% upside). Target $226.70 (+40.4%), stop $154.80 (−4.3%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Stop-loss: $154.80.

What are the risks of investing in VSEC?

Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Is VSEC overvalued or undervalued?

VSE Corporation trades at a P/E of 63.3 (forward 27.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VSEC?

15 analysts cover VSEC with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $261.

What does VSE Corporation do?VSE Corporation is an aviation aftermarket parts distributor and MRO services provider for commercial and government...

VSE Corporation is an aviation aftermarket parts distributor and MRO services provider for commercial and government aviation markets, operating as a single Aviation segment after divesting Fleet (April 2025) and Federal & Defense segments. With ~1,600 employees, it services commercial airlines, regional carriers, and aviation operators globally. A pending $2.025B acquisition of Precision Aviation Group (PAG) is expected to close in Q2 2026.