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Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Wait for pullback to $244.51. At $256.49 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $244.51 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: aerospace market (70.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (72.0%).

Howmet Aerospace manufactures advanced engineered components for aerospace (approximately 70% of 2025 revenue) and commercial transportation (approximately 15%), including jet engine parts, fasteners, airframe structures, and forged aluminum wheels. RTX Corporation and GE... Read more

$256.49+11.5% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#3 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.18%
IncomeYield0.19%Payout10.67%sustainable
Entry $244.51(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $226.20Target $271.65(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$301.84+17.7%21 analysts
$271.65our TP
$256.49price
$301.84mean
$340

Wait for pullback to $244.51. At $256.49 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $244.51 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: aerospace market (70.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (72.0%). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.59, quality 7.8/10, growth 8.7/10). Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: aerospace market (70.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (72.0%)
Thin upside margin: 5.9%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)58.9
P/E (Fwd)42.3
Mkt Cap$101.3B
EV/EBITDA40.5
Profit Mgn20.2%
ROE33.8%
Rev Growth19.1%
Beta1.19
Dividend0.19%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.30bullish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$145-43.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductaerospace market70%
    10-K Item 1: 'Howmet's largest market is aerospace, which represented approximately 70% of the Company's revenue in 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerRTX Corporation11%
    10-K Item 1: 'RTX Corporation and GE Aerospace each represented approximately 11% of the Company's third-party sales'
  • MEDIUMCustomerGE Aerospace11%
    10-K Item 1: 'RTX Corporation and GE Aerospace each represented approximately 11% of the Company's third-party sales'
  • HIGHGeographicNorth America72%
    10-K Item 1: 'North America and Europe generated 72% and 22%, respectively, of Howmet's sales in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $234.51Resistance $280.62

Price Targets

$226
$245
$272
A.Upside+5.9%
A.R:R0.7:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HWM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $244.51. At $256.49 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $244.51 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: aerospace market (70.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (72.0%). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.59, quality 7.8/10, growth 8.7/10). Target $271.65 (+5.9%), stop $226.20 (−13.4%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HWM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $271.65 (+11.5% upside). Target $271.65 (+5.9%), stop $226.20 (−13.4%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $226.20.

What are the risks of investing in HWM?

Concentration risk — Product: aerospace market (70.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (72.0%); Thin upside margin: 5.9%.

Is HWM overvalued or undervalued?

Howmet Aerospace Inc. trades at a P/E of 58.9 (forward 42.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HWM?

29 analysts cover HWM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $302.

What does Howmet Aerospace Inc. do?Howmet Aerospace manufactures advanced engineered components for aerospace (approximately 70% of 2025 revenue) and...

Howmet Aerospace manufactures advanced engineered components for aerospace (approximately 70% of 2025 revenue) and commercial transportation (approximately 15%), including jet engine parts, fasteners, airframe structures, and forged aluminum wheels. RTX Corporation and GE Aerospace each represented approximately 11% of 2025 third-party sales, and the company operates in 19 countries.

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