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Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $242.50, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.5%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Howmet Aerospace makes advanced engineered components (jet engine parts, fasteners, airframe structures, forged aluminum wheels) for aerospace (70% of 2025 revenue) and commercial transportation (15%). Revenue was primarily from North America (72%) and Europe (22%) with 25,430... Read more

$242.50+4.5% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#19 of 46 Aerospace & Defense
Stop $225.79Target $252.58(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$280.65+15.7%21 analysts
$252.58our TP
$242.50price
$280.65mean
$315

Sell if holding. At $242.50, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.5%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.5%
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)63.8
P/E (Fwd)42.1
Mkt Cap$94.8B
EV/EBITDA40.7
Profit Mgn18.3%
ROE30.4%
Rev Growth14.6%
Beta1.24
Dividend0.20%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C3.23bearish
IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerRTX Corporation11%
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, RTX Corporation and GE Aerospace each represented approximately 11% of the Company's third-party sales. The loss of any such significant customer could have a material adverse effect'
  • LOWCustomerGE Aerospace11%
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, RTX Corporation and GE Aerospace each represented approximately 11% of the Company's third-party sales. The loss of any such significant customer could have a material adverse effect'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
1.8
Ps
2.4
Forward Pe
2.7
Peg Ratio
4.4
Analyst Target
5.0
Forward P/E: 42.1xPEG: 2.07Expensive valuation
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $230.97Resistance $259.82

Price Targets

$226
$253
A.Upside+4.2%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HWM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $242.50, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.5%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $225.79. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HWM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $252.58 (+4.5% upside). Prior stop was $225.79. Stop-loss: $225.79.

What are the risks of investing in HWM?

Thin upside margin: 4.5%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Expensive valuation.

Is HWM overvalued or undervalued?

Howmet Aerospace Inc. trades at a P/E of 63.8 (forward 42.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HWM?

29 analysts cover HWM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $281.

What does Howmet Aerospace Inc. do?Howmet Aerospace makes advanced engineered components (jet engine parts, fasteners, airframe structures, forged...

Howmet Aerospace makes advanced engineered components (jet engine parts, fasteners, airframe structures, forged aluminum wheels) for aerospace (70% of 2025 revenue) and commercial transportation (15%). Revenue was primarily from North America (72%) and Europe (22%) with 25,430 employees in 23 countries.

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