Forestar Group looks cheap on cash flow (price to operating cash flow of 4.7x) with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, but earnings have been soft, lumpy revenue and bearish options positioning cap conviction ahead of results in five days.
Thesis pillars
- Cash Flow Valuation Discount↓Deteriorating
- Strong Piotroski Fundamentals↓Deteriorating
- Soft Recent Earnings↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 19, 2025
Forestar Group Inc (FOR) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Sector Rotation edge
Real Estate · Real Estate - Development
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.97: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Forestar Group Inc. is a national, well-capitalized residential lot development company focused primarily on making investments in land acquisition and development to sell finished single-family residential lots to homebuilders. Our common stock is listed on the New York Stock... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.97: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — Forestar Group Inc
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Oct 29, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: .Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 28, 2026, Donald J. Tomnitz informed the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Forestar Group Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Fortune Bay Corp. Announces Completion of 2026 Summer Drill Program at Murmac and Strike Uranium Projects — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS Forestar Group Inc. Reports Fiscal 2026 Financial Results and Provides Fiscal 2027 Guidance — fiscal.ai Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Forestar Group Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Forestar Group (FOR) Could Be 24% Undervalued After Chairman Retirement News - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Forestar Group Inc. Announces Executive Chairman Changes - www.marketscreener.com — www.marketscreener.com Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T12:04:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-10-29Item 5.02MEDIUM.Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 28, 2026, Donald J. Tomnitz informed the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Forestar Group Inc.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -13.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.97: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $23.22. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $28.90 (+15.7% upside). Prior stop was $23.22. Stop-loss: $23.22.
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).
Forestar Group Inc trades at a P/E of 9.0 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
7 analysts rate FOR, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 2 analysts publish price targets averaging $34.
What does Forestar Group Inc do?Forestar Group Inc. is a national, well-capitalized residential lot development company focused primarily on making...
Forestar Group Inc. is a national, well-capitalized residential lot development company focused primarily on making investments in land acquisition and development to sell finished single-family residential lots to homebuilders. Our common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NYSE Texas under the ticker symbol "FOR." The listing and trading of the Common Stock on the NYSE Texas commenced on July 1, 2025.