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Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Real Estate · Real Estate - Development

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $63.79 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Howard Hughes Holdings is a real estate developer operating Master Planned Communities (Summerlin, Woodlands, Bridgeland, Teravalis across ~101,000 gross acres in 5 states), Operating Assets (77 properties: 37 office, 13 retail, 18 multifamily), and Strategic Developments... Read more

$63.79+20.4% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#3 of 4 Real Estate - Development
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield9.41%
Stop $60.67Target $76.78(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 4.1:1
Analyst target$90.33+41.6%3 analysts
$76.78our TP
$63.79price
$90.33mean
$100

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $63.79 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 20%
Risks
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.8
P/E (Fwd)62.5
Mkt Cap$3.8B
EV/EBITDA14.8
Profit Mgn8.0%
ROE3.6%
Rev Growth18.4%
Beta1.15
DividendNone
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
    Howard Hughes entered a warrant agreement with Mr. Grandisson on April 20, 2026 to purchase warrants for 1,131,273 shares at $100/share for $10M, exercisable 2030-2031 with transfer restrictions until 2030. Officer compensatory arrangement.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 1.01MEDIUM
    HHC (wholly-owned subsidiary) completed a $1B private offering of senior notes: $500M at 5.875% due 2032 and $500M at 6.125% due 2034 on February 17, 2026 to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A/Reg S.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.1
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
4.5
Macd
9.9
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
7.1

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.3
Quality Rank
1.7
Growth Rank
7.5
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $61.32Resistance $68.25

Price Targets

$61
$77
A.Upside+20.4%
A.R:R4.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HHH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $63.79 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Prior stop was $60.67. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the HHH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $76.78 (+20.4% upside). Prior stop was $60.67. Stop-loss: $60.67.

What are the risks of investing in HHH?

Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is HHH overvalued or undervalued?

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.8 (forward 62.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HHH?

7 analysts cover HHH with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $90.

What does Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. do?Howard Hughes Holdings is a real estate developer operating Master Planned Communities (Summerlin, Woodlands,...

Howard Hughes Holdings is a real estate developer operating Master Planned Communities (Summerlin, Woodlands, Bridgeland, Teravalis across ~101,000 gross acres in 5 states), Operating Assets (77 properties: 37 office, 13 retail, 18 multifamily), and Strategic Developments including Ward Village condominiums. Revenue comes from MPC land sales to homebuilders, commercial rents, and condo sales; the company is transitioning toward a diversified holding company with a pending ~$2.1B Vantage insurance acquisition.

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