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CCSCentury Communities, Inc.Sell4.4·$64.13+0.79%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Revenue declining at -13% year-over-year, a confirmed death cross with the price below a falling 200-day average, quality below the minimum acceptable threshold, and a put/call ratio of 3.33 all point to a deteriorating setup; the sole countervailing positive is a four-quarter earnings beat streak averaging more than 40% above consensus, which has not been sufficient to arrest the structural price weakness.

Thesis pillars

  • Revenue Contraction RiskStable
  • Earnings Beat Streak ResilienceStable
  • Confirmed Price DowntrendStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Century Communities, Inc. (CCS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueQualityModerate Confidence

Real Estate · Real Estate - Development

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $64.13: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.83; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Century Communities builds and sells single-family homes under two brands—Century Communities and Century Complete—across 16 states, targeting entry-level to move-up buyers with approximately 94% of 2025 deliveries priced below FHA mortgage limits. The company delivered 10,387... Read more

$64.13+3.4% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#4 of 4 Real Estate - Development
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.32%
IncomeYield1.93%(5y avg 1.32%)Payout26.81%
Stop $61.11Target $66.30(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$78.00+21.6%2 analysts
$66.30our TP
$64.13price
$78.00mean
$92

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $64.13: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.83; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-03
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 21, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.2
P/E (Fwd)13.9
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA15.1
Profit Mgn3.4%
ROE5.2%
Rev Growth-7.3%
Beta1.29
Dividend1.93%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.83bearish
IV52%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -7.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.7
Earnings Growth
4.1
Declining revenue: -7%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.1
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 28)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
2.5
Value Rank
3.8

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Roe
1.7
Net Margin
1.7
Roa
1.8
Operating Margin
2.1
Moat
3.9
Fcf Quality
4.6
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
8.2
Earnings quality warning: 58% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $63.00Resistance $73.25

Price Targets

$61
$66
A.Upside+3.4%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-21 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CCS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $64.13: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.83; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $61.11. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CCS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $66.30 (+3.4% upside). Prior stop was $61.11. Stop-loss: $61.11.

What are the risks of investing in CCS?

Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is CCS overvalued or undervalued?

Century Communities, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.2 (forward 13.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CCS?

7 analysts cover CCS with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $78.

What does Century Communities, Inc. do?Century Communities builds and sells single-family homes under two brands—Century Communities and Century...

Century Communities builds and sells single-family homes under two brands—Century Communities and Century Complete—across 16 states, targeting entry-level to move-up buyers with approximately 94% of 2025 deliveries priced below FHA mortgage limits. The company delivered 10,387 new homes in 2025 and operates a financial services segment providing mortgage, title, and escrow services to its homebuyers.

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