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CCSCentury Communities, Inc.Sell4.2·$69.99+0.21%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Revenue declining at -13% year-over-year, a confirmed death cross with the price below a falling 200-day average, quality below the minimum acceptable threshold, and a put/call ratio of 3.33 all point to a deteriorating setup; the sole countervailing positive is a four-quarter earnings beat streak averaging more than 40% above consensus, which has not been sufficient to arrest the structural price weakness.

Thesis pillars

  • Revenue Contraction RiskStable
  • Earnings Beat Streak ResilienceStable
  • Confirmed Price DowntrendStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Century Communities, Inc. (CCS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · Real Estate - Development

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $69.99: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Century Communities builds and sells single-family homes under two brands—Century Communities and Century Complete—across 16 states, targeting entry-level to move-up buyers with approximately 94% of 2025 deliveries priced below FHA mortgage limits. The company delivered 10,387... Read more

$69.99+2.1% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#4 of 4 Real Estate - Development
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield7.79%
IncomeYield1.74%(5y avg 1.32%)Payout26.80%
Stop $65.09Target $71.45(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$78.00+11.4%2 analysts
$71.45our TP
$69.99price
$78.00mean
$64
$92

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $69.99: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202618d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-5.3% upside)
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.8
P/E (Fwd)17.1
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA14.6
Profit Mgn3.3%
ROE5.2%
Rev Growth-12.6%
Beta1.29
Dividend1.74%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV64%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -12.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -13%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
1.3
Value Rank
5.0

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Roe
1.7
Operating Margin
1.7
Net Margin
1.7
Roa
2.0
Moat
3.9
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
7.3
Fcf Quality
7.9
No competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 18d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
74 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $54.49Resistance $72.91

Price Targets

$65
$71
A.Upside+2.1%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (18d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CCS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $69.99: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Prior stop was $65.09. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CCS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $71.45 (+2.1% upside). Prior stop was $65.09. Stop-loss: $65.09.

What are the risks of investing in CCS?

Target reached (-5.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is CCS overvalued or undervalued?

Century Communities, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.8 (forward 17.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CCS?

8 analysts cover CCS with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $78.

What does Century Communities, Inc. do?Century Communities builds and sells single-family homes under two brands—Century Communities and Century...

Century Communities builds and sells single-family homes under two brands—Century Communities and Century Complete—across 16 states, targeting entry-level to move-up buyers with approximately 94% of 2025 deliveries priced below FHA mortgage limits. The company delivered 10,387 new homes in 2025 and operates a financial services segment providing mortgage, title, and escrow services to its homebuyers.

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