Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 6.1 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.23
FDX · Why this verdict
Why FedEx (FDX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with individual positive surprises of roughly 26%, 17%, 6%, and 5% reading from most to least recent and an average beat above 13%, demonstrating a consistent pattern of under-promising and over-delivering relative to Wall Street expectations. Earnings | EPS surprise remains above 2% in the next reported quarter, extending the unbroken beat streak to five quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFour consecutive beats may partly reflect analysts anchoring estimates too conservatively; any quarter where volume softness or cost inflation surprises to the upside could break the streak and prompt a sharp repricing of expectations. | ||
Free cash flow is running at roughly a fifth of reported net income — a red-alert level of cash conversion flagged by quality analysis — and no identifiable competitive moat supports pricing power or barriers to entry; together these drag quality metrics below the minimum acceptable threshold for an investable position. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow rises to at least 50% of net income over the next four reported quarters, demonstrating a material improvement in earnings-to-cash conversion. | →Stable |
| CounterIn a capital-intensive network logistics business, a low free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio may reflect a period of elevated capital investment; if that cycle matures and capital expenditure moderates, conversion ratios could improve without any change in the underlying competitive landscape. | ||
The stock is trading at its technical resistance take-profit level, leaving essentially no remaining upside while the downside risk amounts to roughly 5.9%; the reward-to-risk geometry is firmly unfavorable, meaning the setup does not support initiating or extending exposure at the current price. Price targets | The stock pulls back at least 10% from its current level, bringing it below $305 and establishing a new entry point where upside to a refreshed resistance target exceeds 12%. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong earnings surprise consistent with the recent four-quarter beat streak could propel the stock materially above the current resistance level, establishing a higher price objective and rendering the current target stale. | ||
With an earnings release scheduled within seven days, the stock is inside the window where pre-announcement positioning volatility is highest; this near-term binary event adds meaningful uncertainty to any position held at the current price, regardless of the underlying fundamental view. Engine gate (failed) | The stock closes above $356 — more than 5% above the pre-announcement level — on the first trading day after the release, confirming the event resolved with a strongly positive surprise rather than a decline. | →Stable |
| CounterThe recent four-quarter beat track record increases the probability that the upcoming report will again exceed estimates, potentially rewarding holders with a positive price gap that disproves the downside event-risk concern. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with individual positive surprises of roughly 26%, 17%, 6%, and 5% reading from most to least recent and an average beat above 13%, demonstrating a consistent pattern of under-promising and over-delivering relative to Wall Street expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains above 2% in the next reported quarter, extending the unbroken beat streak to five quarters.
CounterFour consecutive beats may partly reflect analysts anchoring estimates too conservatively; any quarter where volume softness or cost inflation surprises to the upside could break the streak and prompt a sharp repricing of expectations.
Free cash flow is running at roughly a fifth of reported net income — a red-alert level of cash conversion flagged by quality analysis — and no identifiable competitive moat supports pricing power or barriers to entry; together these drag quality metrics below the minimum acceptable threshold for an investable position.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow rises to at least 50% of net income over the next four reported quarters, demonstrating a material improvement in earnings-to-cash conversion.
CounterIn a capital-intensive network logistics business, a low free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio may reflect a period of elevated capital investment; if that cycle matures and capital expenditure moderates, conversion ratios could improve without any change in the underlying competitive landscape.
The stock is trading at its technical resistance take-profit level, leaving essentially no remaining upside while the downside risk amounts to roughly 5.9%; the reward-to-risk geometry is firmly unfavorable, meaning the setup does not support initiating or extending exposure at the current price.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The stock pulls back at least 10% from its current level, bringing it below $305 and establishing a new entry point where upside to a refreshed resistance target exceeds 12%.
CounterA strong earnings surprise consistent with the recent four-quarter beat streak could propel the stock materially above the current resistance level, establishing a higher price objective and rendering the current target stale.
With an earnings release scheduled within seven days, the stock is inside the window where pre-announcement positioning volatility is highest; this near-term binary event adds meaningful uncertainty to any position held at the current price, regardless of the underlying fundamental view.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The stock closes above $356 — more than 5% above the pre-announcement level — on the first trading day after the release, confirming the event resolved with a strongly positive surprise rather than a decline.
CounterThe recent four-quarter beat track record increases the probability that the upcoming report will again exceed estimates, potentially rewarding holders with a positive price gap that disproves the downside event-risk concern.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
FedEx has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging over 13% above estimates, but quality metrics have fallen below the minimum acceptable threshold — with free cash flow amounting to only about a fifth of net income and no identifiable competitive moat — while the stock has reached its technical resistance target leaving virtually no upside and an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio, with an earnings announcement in seven days adding a further layer of event risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 1.5 |
| Op margin | 4.5 |
| Net margin | 2.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 9.2 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 125% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
| EPS growth | 1.1 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.1 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $18,598,096 (0.025% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 4.8 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 4.3 |
| put call | 2.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 4.3 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.59
- ▸High IV: 86%
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 156.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:100d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.09
Upside
+0.6%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.34>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.09 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.5, Catalyst at 7.1, and Value at 7.0; the weakest are Growth at 3.3, Insider at 3.8, and Momentum at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four Quarter Earnings Outperformance
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 1 quarter, breaking the 4-quarter consecutive beat streak.
- P2Weak Cash Conversion Quality Floor Breach
Trip ifFree cash flow rises above 50% of net income for 2 consecutive reported quarters, signaling material improvement in earnings-to-cash conversion.
- P3Price At Target Unfavorable Asymmetry
Trip ifStock price retreats more than 10% from $338.75, falling below $305 and creating at least 12% upside to a new resistance target.
- P4Imminent Earnings Event Risk
Trip ifStock price closes above $356 on the first trading day after the earnings release, confirming the binary event resolved with a significant positive outcome.