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Fresh Del Monte Produce, Inc. (FDP) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Farm Products

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.50: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 4.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.43; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Fresh Del Monte is a vertically integrated producer, marketer, and distributor of fresh and fresh-cut fruit and vegetables under the Del Monte brand in 80+ countries. North America accounts for 58% of net sales, with bananas (34%), fresh-cut produce (20%), and pineapples (16%)... Read more

$32.50+36.3% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#4 of 7 Farm Products
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-3.08%
IncomeYield3.67%(5y avg 2.62%)Payout82.76%at-risk
Stop $31.12Target $44.20(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 4.0:1
Analyst target$52.00+60.0%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.50: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 4.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.43; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Fresh Del Monte Produce, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (58.0%)
Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.6
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA8.7
Profit Mgn1.6%
ROE3.6%
Rev Growth-4.9%
Beta0.29
Dividend3.67%
Rating analysts5

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.43bearish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$20-38.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNorth America58%
    10-K Item 1: 'North America is our largest market, accounting for 58% of our net sales in 2025'
  • MEDIUMGeographicCosta Rica sourcing34%
    10-K Item 1: 'Costa Rica is our most significant sourcing location representing approximately 34% of our total sales volume of fresh produce products'
  • MEDIUMSupplierone grower in the Philippines
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 13% of our banana net sales in 2025 were supplied by one grower in the Philippines with whom our contract is set to expire'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop 10 customers29%
    10-K Item 1: 'our top 10 customers accounted for approximately 29% of our net sales'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
4.1
Capitulation risk (RSI 7, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Net Margin
0.8
Roe
1.2
Operating Margin
1.4
Roa
2.2
Moat
3.9
Piotroski F
7.8
Current Ratio
8.0
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -69% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9Quality concerns
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 4.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
7 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $32.08Resistance $42.24

Price Targets

$31
$44
A.Upside+36.0%
A.R:R4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FDP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.50: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 4.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.43; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $31.12. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FDP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.20 (+36.3% upside). Prior stop was $31.12. Stop-loss: $31.12.

What are the risks of investing in FDP?

Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (58.0%); Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).

Is FDP overvalued or undervalued?

Fresh Del Monte Produce, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.6 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FDP?

5 analysts cover FDP with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $52.

What does Fresh Del Monte Produce, Inc. do?Fresh Del Monte is a vertically integrated producer, marketer, and distributor of fresh and fresh-cut fruit and...

Fresh Del Monte is a vertically integrated producer, marketer, and distributor of fresh and fresh-cut fruit and vegetables under the Del Monte brand in 80+ countries. North America accounts for 58% of net sales, with bananas (34%), fresh-cut produce (20%), and pineapples (16%) as key revenue categories. Costa Rica is its largest sourcing location, representing 34% of total fresh produce sales volume.

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