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Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Farm Products

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.20: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming. The company is involved in the production of a range of agricultural... Read more

$13.20+14.0% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#4 of 7 Farm Products
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-3.81%
IncomeYield2.26%Payout1943.61%at-risk
Stop $12.19Target $14.95(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$13.11-0.6%7 analysts
$14.95our TP
$13.20price
$13.11mean
$7
$16

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.20: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Adecoagro S.A.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-13.0% upside)
Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)655.5
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA13.5
Profit Mgn0.9%
ROE1.1%
Rev Growth22.5%
Beta-0.07
Dividend2.26%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Operating Margin
0.1
Gross Margin
0.2
Roe
0.4
Net Margin
0.5
Roa
0.7
Moat
4.9
Current Ratio
6.2
Piotroski F
7.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -526% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9Quality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.5
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
7.1
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5A.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 86d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.29Resistance $15.25

Price Targets

$12
$15
A.Upside+13.3%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-11 (86d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGRO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.20: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $12.19. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGRO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.95 (+14.0% upside). Prior stop was $12.19. Stop-loss: $12.19.

What are the risks of investing in AGRO?

Target reached (-13.0% upside); Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0).

Is AGRO overvalued or undervalued?

Adecoagro S.A. trades at a P/E of 655.5 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGRO?

13 analysts cover AGRO with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Adecoagro S.A. do?Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The...

Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming. The company is involved in the production of a range of agricultural commodities, including soybean, corn, wheat, peanut, sunflower, cotton, and others; planting, harvesting, processing, and marketing of white, brown, and rough rice; genetic development of seeds; and production of dairy products, such as raw milk, ultra-high temperature milk, powdered milk, semi-hard cheese, cream, cream and cocoa flavored milk, chocolate and fluid milk, and other dairy products. It also generates electricity through burning biogas extracted from effluents produced by its dairy cattle; and provides grain warehousing and conditioning, and handling and drying services. In addition, the company cultivates andharvests sugarcane to produce ethanol, sugar, and bioelectricity; and sells carbon credits. Further, it engages in land transformation activities, such as the acquisition of farmlands or businesses with underdeveloped or underutilized agricultural land; and the implementation of production technology and agricultural practices. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. As of May 1, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Tether Investments, S.A. De C.V.

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