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Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Farm Products

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.06: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through two segments, Farming; and Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy. The company is involved in the production of a range of agricultural commodities,... Read more

$14.06+10.0% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#4 of 7 Farm Products
Stop $13.08Target $15.46(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$13.19-6.2%7 analysts
$15.46our TP
$14.06price
$13.19mean
$7
$16

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.06: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-18.4% upside)
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA14.7
Profit Mgn-0.6%
ROE-0.4%
Rev Growth11.1%
Beta0.06
Dividend2.05%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.71neutral
IV69%elevated
Max Pain$3-82.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.5
Operating Margin
1.0
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.1
Piotroski F
5.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
7.1
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Momentum 5.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.79Resistance $15.78

Price Targets

$13
$15
A.Upside+10.0%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.4% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-11 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGRO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.06: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $13.08. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGRO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.46 (+10.0% upside). Prior stop was $13.08. Stop-loss: $13.08.

What are the risks of investing in AGRO?

Target reached (-18.4% upside); Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).

Is AGRO overvalued or undervalued?

Adecoagro S.A. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGRO?

13 analysts cover AGRO with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Adecoagro S.A. do?Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The...

Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through two segments, Farming; and Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy. The company is involved in the production of a range of agricultural commodities, including soybean, corn, wheat, peanut, sunflower, cotton, and others; planting, harvesting, processing, and marketing of white, brown, and rough rice; genetic development of seeds; and production of dairy products, such as raw milk, ultra-high temperature milk, UP milk, powdered milk, semi-hard cheese, cream, cream and cocoa flavored milk, chocolate and fluid milk, and other dairy products. It also generates electricity through burning biogas extracted from effluents produced by its dairy cattle; and provides grain warehousing and conditioning, and handling and drying services. In addition, the company cultivates and harvests sugarcane to produce sugar, ethanol, biomethane, and electricity; and sells carbon credits. Further, it engages in land transformation activities, such as the acquisition of farmlands or businesses with underdeveloped or underutilized agricultural land; and the implementation of production technology and agricultural practices. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. As of May 1, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Tether Investments, S.A. De C.V.

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