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Four Corners Property Trust, In (FCPT) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Tenant: Olive Garden.

Four Corners Property Trust is a net lease REIT owning 1,303 restaurant and retail properties in 48 states, leased primarily to operators under triple-net arrangements. As of December 31, 2025, Darden Restaurants and Brinker International represented 44.7% and 6.6% of annual... Read more

$24.83+1.8% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#12 of 23 REIT - Retail
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.52%
IncomeYield5.99%(5y avg 5.19%)Payout130.00%
Stop $23.95Target $25.24(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$28.11+13.2%9 analysts
$25.24our TP
$24.83price
$28.11mean
$30

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Tenant: Olive Garden. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Four Corners Property Trust, In

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Tenant: Olive Garden
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.0
P/E (Fwd)20.3
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA10.9
Profit Mgn38.7%
ROE7.5%
Rev Growth6.9%
Beta0.84
Dividend5.99%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMTenantDarden45%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Darden and Brinker International, Inc. ("Brinker") constituted approximately 44.7% and 6.6%, respectively, of our annual cash base rent'
  • HIGHTenantOlive Garden
    10-K Item 1A: 'our restaurant properties include 316 Olive Garden restaurants. As a result, our success... is dependent on the continued success of the Olive Garden brand'
  • LOWGeographicTexas10%
    10-K Item 1: 'properties in only one state, Texas, individually accounted for 10% or more of our total revenue at 10.0% of our total revenue'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-01Item 5.02LOW
    Board elected Michael Friedland, age 66, as independent director effective April 1, 2026, to serve on Investment and Nominating/Governance Committees. Routine board appointment; no officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
1.7
Obv
4.0
Ma Position
5.0
Rsi
7.8
Uptrend pullback (RSI 37) - buy opportunityAbove 200-MA but MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.21Resistance $25.76

Price Targets

$24
$25
A.Upside+1.7%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.3% upside)
! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FCPT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Tenant: Olive Garden. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $23.95. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FCPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.24 (+1.8% upside). Prior stop was $23.95. Stop-loss: $23.95.

What are the risks of investing in FCPT?

Concentration risk — Tenant: Olive Garden; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is FCPT overvalued or undervalued?

Four Corners Property Trust, In trades at a P/E of 22.0 (forward 20.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FCPT?

15 analysts cover FCPT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Four Corners Property Trust, In do?Four Corners Property Trust is a net lease REIT owning 1,303 restaurant and retail properties in 48 states, leased...

Four Corners Property Trust is a net lease REIT owning 1,303 restaurant and retail properties in 48 states, leased primarily to operators under triple-net arrangements. As of December 31, 2025, Darden Restaurants and Brinker International represented 44.7% and 6.6% of annual cash base rent, respectively; restaurant properties account for 74% of total revenues.

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