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Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $102.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Expand Energy is the largest independent natural gas producer in the US by net daily production, with operations in the Haynesville shale (Louisiana/Texas), Marcellus shale (Pennsylvania), and Marcellus/Utica shales (West Virginia/Ohio), holding working interests in... Read more

$102.78+15.8% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#1 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
Stop $97.82Target $119.15(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$132.38+28.8%26 analysts
$119.15our TP
$102.78price
$132.38mean
$95
$165

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $102.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.5
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$24.2B
EV/EBITDA3.6
Profit Mgn24.9%
ROE17.6%
Rev Growth41.0%
Beta0.46
Dividend3.16%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.53bullish
IV49%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-09Item 5.02HIGH
    CEO/President Domenic Dell'Osso replaced by Michael Wichterich as Interim President and CEO, effective immediately February 6, 2026. Dell'Osso also resigned from the Board. No permanent CEO named; Wichterich is Interim only.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Marcel Teunissen appointed EVP and Chief Financial Officer, effective April 6, 2026. Previously President, North America and CFO at Parkland Corporation. Clean succession with named replacement.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-10Item 5.02LOW
    John D. Gass notified Expand Energy on April 6, 2026 that he will not stand for re-election and will retire from the Board at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Not due to any disagreement with the Company.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.6>=5.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $93.75Resistance $107.14

Price Targets

$98
$119
A.Upside+15.9%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Analyst Consensus

Analysts33
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$132

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $102.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $119.15 (+15.9%), stop $97.82 (−5.1%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EXE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $119.15 (+15.8% upside). Target $119.15 (+15.9%), stop $97.82 (−5.1%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Stop-loss: $97.82.

What are the risks of investing in EXE?

Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is EXE overvalued or undervalued?

Expand Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of 7.5 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about EXE?

33 analysts cover EXE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $132.

What does Expand Energy Corporation do?Expand Energy is the largest independent natural gas producer in the US by net daily production, with operations in the...

Expand Energy is the largest independent natural gas producer in the US by net daily production, with operations in the Haynesville shale (Louisiana/Texas), Marcellus shale (Pennsylvania), and Marcellus/Utica shales (West Virginia/Ohio), holding working interests in approximately 6,600 gross wells. It completed the Southwestern Energy merger in October 2024 and spent $2.85 billion in capital in 2025.

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