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Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy Now (conditional)High Confidence

Conditional: momentum 5.7/10 (below 6.0 threshold), death cross active, analysts disagree (1.6× target spread) — below strong-conviction threshold. Size accordingly.

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Buy at $100.66 (limit $100.44). A.R:R 2.9:1 at $100.66 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $118.91 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$18 per share to target. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Expand Energy is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S. by net daily production, with operations in the Haynesville (Louisiana/Texas), Northeast Appalachia (Pennsylvania), and Southwest Appalachia (West Virginia/Ohio) shales. Natural gas = 2,409 Bcf of 2,622... Read more

$100.66+18.4% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#1 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.03%
IncomeYield3.16%(5y avg 4.34%)Payout23.74%sustainable
Entry $100.44(at market)Stop $95.88Target $118.91(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$132.12+31.3%25 analysts
$118.91our TP
$100.66price
$132.12mean
$165

Buy at $100.66 (limit $100.44). A.R:R 2.9:1 at $100.66 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $118.91 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$18 per share to target. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Deep value: 50% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. Score 7.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Expand Energy Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.5
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$24.1B
EV/EBITDA3.6
Profit Mgn24.9%
ROE17.6%
Rev Growth41.0%
Beta0.35
Dividend3.16%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.87neutral
IV37%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommoditynatural gas
    10-K Item 1: 'Expand Energy is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S., based on net daily production'
  • LOWCustomerone purchaser11%
    10-K Item 1: 'we had sales to one purchaser that accounted for 11% of our total revenues (before the effects of hedging).'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Marcel Teunissen appointed as EVP and CFO of Expand Energy effective April 6, 2026. Previously served as CFO at Parkland Corporation. Annual salary $550,000 with 100% bonus target. Prior CFO not named in filing.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-10Item 5.02LOW
    John D. Gass notified Expand Energy he will not stand for re-election to the Board and will retire at conclusion of the 2026 Annual Meeting. Decision not due to any disagreement with the Company.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.8
Support Resistance
2.3
52w Position
6.0
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.7>=5.5A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $94.06Resistance $102.35

Price Targets

$96
$100
$119
A.Upside+18.1%
A.R:R2.9:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)4.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %2.1%
Max %4.2%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts31
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$132

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXE stock a buy right now?

Buy at $100.66 (limit $100.44). A.R:R 2.9:1 at $100.66 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $118.91 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$18 per share to target. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Deep value: 50% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. Target $118.91 (+18.1%), stop $95.88 (−5.0%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Score 7.1/10, high confidence.

What is the EXE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $118.91 (+18.4% upside). Target $118.91 (+18.1%), stop $95.88 (−5.0%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Stop-loss: $95.88.

What are the risks of investing in EXE?

Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is EXE overvalued or undervalued?

Expand Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of 7.5 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Strong Buy.

What do analysts say about EXE?

31 analysts cover EXE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $132.

What does Expand Energy Corporation do?Expand Energy is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S. by net daily production, with operations in...

Expand Energy is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S. by net daily production, with operations in the Haynesville (Louisiana/Texas), Northeast Appalachia (Pennsylvania), and Southwest Appalachia (West Virginia/Ohio) shales. Natural gas = 2,409 Bcf of 2,622 Bcfe total 2025 production; one purchaser = 11% of revenues.

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