Value
9.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.6 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.6x
- ▸Attractively valued
EXE · Why this verdict
Why Expand Energy (EXE) is rated BUY NOW
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY NOW
Overall score7.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company carries a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, operating margins the data characterizes as strong at approximately 25%, and a wide economic moat — characteristics consistent with a business that compounds returns through commodity cycles. Quality | Operating margins remain above 20% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher over the next four quarters, confirming the quality floor holds through commodity price fluctuations. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow conversion has been flagged at 52% of net income, meaning the business is not fully translating accounting earnings into cash — if this gap persists or widens, the reported margin quality may overstate true earnings power. | ||
The stock trades at a forward multiple of approximately 9 times earnings, which the data characterizes as attractively valued, with analyst consensus targets pointing to more than 30% upside from the current price. Value | The gap between the current price and the analyst consensus target narrows meaningfully over the next 12 months as the valuation discount closes. | →Stable |
| CounterNatural gas-weighted revenue concentration makes the earnings base highly sensitive to commodity price swings; a sustained decline in gas prices could compress forward earnings estimates and widen the discount rather than close it. | ||
Revenue has expanded at roughly 41% year over year, placing the company among the top growth profiles within its peer group and supporting the case for a multiple re-rating. Growth | Revenue growth remains above 25% year over year for at least two of the next four reported quarters, confirming the expansion rate is not purely a base-effect artifact. | →Stable |
| CounterThe growth rate is anchored to natural gas production volumes and commodity pricing; a pullback in either could cause the reported growth rate to decelerate materially without any operational failure by management. | ||
The stock is in a death cross configuration with RSI near 30 and price below all major moving averages — a significant near-term technical headwind that may delay valuation re-rating regardless of fundamental strength. Momentum | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average within six months and RSI sustains above 45, signaling that the technical pressure has cleared and a re-rating can begin. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the long-term moving average continues to decline and volume distribution persists, the technical configuration may prove structural — signaling further price weakness before any recovery — rather than a sentiment extreme that precedes a reversal. | ||
The company carries a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, operating margins the data characterizes as strong at approximately 25%, and a wide economic moat — characteristics consistent with a business that compounds returns through commodity cycles.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 20% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher over the next four quarters, confirming the quality floor holds through commodity price fluctuations.
CounterFree cash flow conversion has been flagged at 52% of net income, meaning the business is not fully translating accounting earnings into cash — if this gap persists or widens, the reported margin quality may overstate true earnings power.
The stock trades at a forward multiple of approximately 9 times earnings, which the data characterizes as attractively valued, with analyst consensus targets pointing to more than 30% upside from the current price.
→StableValue
- Expectation
- The gap between the current price and the analyst consensus target narrows meaningfully over the next 12 months as the valuation discount closes.
CounterNatural gas-weighted revenue concentration makes the earnings base highly sensitive to commodity price swings; a sustained decline in gas prices could compress forward earnings estimates and widen the discount rather than close it.
Revenue has expanded at roughly 41% year over year, placing the company among the top growth profiles within its peer group and supporting the case for a multiple re-rating.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 25% year over year for at least two of the next four reported quarters, confirming the expansion rate is not purely a base-effect artifact.
CounterThe growth rate is anchored to natural gas production volumes and commodity pricing; a pullback in either could cause the reported growth rate to decelerate materially without any operational failure by management.
The stock is in a death cross configuration with RSI near 30 and price below all major moving averages — a significant near-term technical headwind that may delay valuation re-rating regardless of fundamental strength.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average within six months and RSI sustains above 45, signaling that the technical pressure has cleared and a re-rating can begin.
CounterIf the long-term moving average continues to decline and volume distribution persists, the technical configuration may prove structural — signaling further price weakness before any recovery — rather than a sentiment extreme that precedes a reversal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Expand Energy is a high-quality natural gas producer trading at a forward multiple of roughly 9 times earnings with analyst targets implying more than 30% upside, supported by 41% year-over-year revenue growth and a wide economic moat — but a death cross, RSI near 30, and price below all major moving averages represent a meaningful near-term technical headwind that warrants patience before adding exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.9 |
| ROA | 6.4 |
| Gross margin | 5.6 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 4.2 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 52% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 41% YoY
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.5 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 45%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $560,880 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.9 |
| support resistance | 6.8 |
| 52w position | 4.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 6.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.48
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 352.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Deep value: 55% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUEPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:6.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:23d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Energy:4/10
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.3>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
6.12
Upside
+30.6%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
HALF
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 23d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_NOW verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 6.12.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.3, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Insider at 5.0, Technical at 5.3, and Catalyst at 5.4. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.12 and an engine sizing output of HALF.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Steep Valuation Discount
Trip ifPrice rises above $115 for 3 consecutive sessions, eliminating most of the gap to the analyst consensus target and erasing the valuation discount.
- P2Exceptional Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a material deceleration from the 41% current rate.
- P3Wide Moat Quality Franchise
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters, eroding the quality floor and weakening the wide-moat characterization.
- P4Technical Momentum Headwind
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average for 5 consecutive sessions and RSI sustains above 45, confirming the technical headwind has cleared.