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Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T (EL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products

Sell if holding. At $79.55, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).

Estée Lauder is a global manufacturer, marketer and seller of prestige beauty products across skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care under 20+ brands including Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C, La Mer and TOM FORD, sold in approximately 150 countries. Revenue is generated... Read more

$79.55+6.5% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#13 of 13 Household & Personal Products
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield6.24%
IncomeYield1.75%(5y avg 1.61%)Payout471.43%at-risk
Stop $74.41Target $85.19(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$94.65+19.0%23 analysts
$85.19our TP
$79.55price
$94.65mean
$70
$125

Sell if holding. At $79.55, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 92d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.5%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)25.2
Mkt Cap$28.9B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn-1.7%
ROE-5.9%
Rev Growth4.6%
Beta1.21
Dividend1.75%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C1.11bearish
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$50-37.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-01Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Estée Lauder updated its Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP) restructuring program, expanded in February 2025 to include reorganization/rightsizing, process simplification, outsourcing and go-to-market footprint evolution. Cumulative charges updated; full expected amounts not re-quantified in this amendment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.7

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.3
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
7.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 92d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $74.68Resistance $87.90

Price Targets

$74
$85
A.Upside+7.1%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-19 (92d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $79.55, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Prior stop was $74.41. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

What is the EL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $85.19 (+6.5% upside). Prior stop was $74.41. Stop-loss: $74.41.

What are the risks of investing in EL?

Thin upside margin: 6.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

Is EL overvalued or undervalued?

Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 25.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EL?

34 analysts cover EL with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $95.

What does Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T do?Estée Lauder is a global manufacturer, marketer and seller of prestige beauty products across skin care, makeup,...

Estée Lauder is a global manufacturer, marketer and seller of prestige beauty products across skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care under 20+ brands including Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C, La Mer and TOM FORD, sold in approximately 150 countries. Revenue is generated through wholesale channels and ~1,600 freestanding stores; the largest client provides approximately 3% of total revenue, reflecting broad diversification.

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