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ELEstee Lauder Companies, Inc. (TSell4.5·$90.17+0.55%
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Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T (EL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $90.17 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

Estée Lauder is a global manufacturer, marketer and seller of prestige beauty products across skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care under 20+ brands including Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C, La Mer and TOM FORD, sold in approximately 150 countries. Revenue is generated... Read more

$90.170.0% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#13 of 13 Household & Personal Products
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield5.57%
IncomeYield1.56%(5y avg 1.62%)Payout471.43%at-risk
Stop $84.07Target $90.15(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$95.12+5.5%25 analysts
$90.15our TP
$90.17price
$95.12mean
$70
$125

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $90.17 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T

About Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T

The Estée Lauder Companies markets prestige skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products under more than 20 brands across approximately 150 countries and territories, including Large Brands such as Estée Lauder, La Mer, Clinique, and M·A·C and Scaling Brands including Jo Malone London, TOM FORD, The Ordinary, Aveda, and Bobbi Brown Cosmetics. Research and development spending totaled $316 million in fiscal 2025, and the company operated approximately 1,600 freestanding stores as of June 30, 2025, with wholly-owned operations in over 50 countries.

The company earns revenue as a wholesaler and direct-to-consumer operator, selling through department stores, duty-free retailers, specialty-multi retailers, online platforms, and top-tier salons — as well as through roughly 1,600 freestanding stores and brand.com websites. Online sales are concentrated in mainland China, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Manufacturing occurs primarily at company-owned facilities in the United States, Canada, Belgium, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and Japan, supplemented by third-party manufacturing networks. Some products rely on a single or limited number of suppliers, which subjects the company to supply disruption risk if financial or operational conditions at those suppliers deteriorate. The company invests in trade promotions including purchase-with-purchase and gift-with-purchase sampling programs and cooperative advertising with retail partners. Members of the Lauder family beneficially own shares representing approximately 84% of the outstanding voting power of common stock.

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Department store traffic in the United States has shown a longer-term decline, and the 10-K flags that consolidation or liquidation in the retail trade could render the company increasingly dependent on key retailers, with a severe adverse impact on customers' business operations potentially having a corresponding material adverse effect. If one of the largest retail customers entered bankruptcy or changed strategy, the company's results could be materially harmed. Competition from Indie Brands — some backed by private-equity investors — is cited as a growing competitive force in distribution channels where the company is less represented.

See also: Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products

From Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T

Material events (past 30 days)

  • 8K Jun 3, 2026 MEDIUM Item 2.05: Amendment No. 6 (8-K/A) to the Profit Recovery and Growth Plan restructuring program originally committed February 1, 2024. Expanded restructuring includes reorganization and rightsizing, simplification and acceleration of processes, outsourcing of select services, and evolution of go-to-market foot

Generated 2026-06-17T08:56:47Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 19, 202665d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)28.2
Mkt Cap$32.4B
EV/EBITDA16.4
Profit Mgn-1.7%
ROE-5.9%
Rev Growth4.6%
Beta1.25
Dividend1.56%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.79neutral
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$140+55.3% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-01Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Estée Lauder updated its Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP) restructuring program, expanded in February 2025 to include reorganization/rightsizing, process simplification, outsourcing and go-to-market footprint evolution. Cumulative charges updated; full expected amounts not re-quantified in this amendment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.7

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.1
Bollinger
2.0
52w Position
4.9
Gap
5.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVE8K SERIOUS 2.05Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $74.97Resistance $91.99

Price Targets

$84
$90
A.Upside-0.0%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! 8K_SERIOUS:2.05

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-19 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $90.17 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Prior stop was $84.07. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

What is the EL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $90.15 (0.0% upside). Prior stop was $84.07. Stop-loss: $84.07.

What are the risks of investing in EL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is EL overvalued or undervalued?

Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 28.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EL?

34 analysts cover EL with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $95.

What does Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T do?Estée Lauder is a global manufacturer, marketer and seller of prestige beauty products across skin care, makeup,...

Estée Lauder is a global manufacturer, marketer and seller of prestige beauty products across skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care under 20+ brands including Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C, La Mer and TOM FORD, sold in approximately 150 countries. Revenue is generated through wholesale channels and ~1,600 freestanding stores; the largest client provides approximately 3% of total revenue, reflecting broad diversification.

Related stocks: ELF (e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.) · KVUE (Kenvue Inc.) · UL (Unilever PLC) · KMB (Kimberly-Clark Corporation) · CL (Colgate-Palmolive Company)
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