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EGYVAALCO Energy, Inc.Sell4.9·$5.06+2.02%
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VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.06: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 7.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

VAALCO Energy, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Gabon, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Cote d'Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, and Canada. It holds 58.8%... Read more

$5.06+61.3% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#40 of 48 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-14.15%
IncomeYield4.94%Payout92.59%at-risk
Stop $4.71Target $8.16(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 7.4:1
Analyst target$9.60+89.7%3 analysts
$8.16our TP
$5.06price
$9.60mean
$11

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.06: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 7.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)15.1
Mkt Cap$541M
EV/EBITDA20.1
Profit Mgn-45.9%
ROE-33.7%
Rev Growth-43.3%
Beta0.07
Dividend4.94%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV75%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.2
Quality Rank
0.3
Value Rank
6.0

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Current Ratio
2.1
Moat
4.8
Piotroski F
5.6
Gross Margin
6.9
Cash-burning: FCF -25% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 5.7>=5.5A.R:R 7.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.76Resistance $5.72

Price Targets

$5
$8
A.Upside+61.3%
A.R:R7.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EGY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.06: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 7.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $4.71. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EGY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $8.16 (+61.3% upside). Prior stop was $4.71. Stop-loss: $4.71.

What are the risks of investing in EGY?

Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is EGY overvalued or undervalued?

VAALCO Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EGY?

6 analysts cover EGY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $10.

What does VAALCO Energy, Inc. do?VAALCO Energy, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and...

VAALCO Energy, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Gabon, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Cote d'Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, and Canada. It holds 58.8% interest in the Etame production sharing contract related to the Etame Marin block covering an area of approximately 46,200 gross acres located offshore in the Republic of Gabon in West Africa. The company also holds 100% interest in the Eastern Desert, which contains West Gharib, West Bakr, and Northwest Gharib merged concessions covering an area of approximately 45,067 acres, as well as Western Desert, which contains the South Ghazalat concession covering an area of approximately 7,340 acres located in Egypt. In addition, it holds 27.4% non-operated working interest in CI-40 in the deepwater producing Baobab field in Block CI-40, offshore Cote d'Ivoire in West Africa. Further, the company owns production and working interests in Cardium light oil and Mannville liquids-rich gas assets in Harmattan, within the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, approximately 80 kilometers north of Calgary, Alberta; and a 60% working interest in an undeveloped portion of block P offshore Equatorial Guinea. VAALCO Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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