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BTEBaytex Energy CorpHold6.3·$4.44
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Baytex Energy shows 51% revenue growth, a 9/9 Piotroski score and positive momentum near its 52-week high, but it is burning cash (FCF -13% of revenue), has missed earnings in 3 of 4 quarters and reports in 4 days.

Thesis pillars

  • Yield Trap Risk→Stable
  • Strong Revenue Growth→Stable
  • Piotroski Versus Cash Burn→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Earnings today — results expected after close (2026-11-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.44, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Negative momentum.

Baytex Energy Corp., an energy company, engages in the acquisition, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. It offers light oil and condensate, heavy oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. The company also holds... Read more

$4.44+23.9% Upside to targetScore 6.3/10#26 of 49 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-7.27%
IncomeYield1.42%(5y avg 7.49%)Payout1.84%sustainable
Stop $4.25Resistance target $5.50A.R:R 0.0:1

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.44, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Nov 2, 2026
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 2026Earnings today — results expected after close· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)11.5
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA3.5
Profit Mgn-42.9%
ROE-8.8%
Rev Growth51.3%
Beta0.74
Dividend1.42%
Analysts with ratings15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C5.00bearish
IV45%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.3
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings todayYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
30 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.38Resistance $5.61

Price Targets

$4
$6
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings today - binary event risk
! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (Earnings today — results expected after close)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BTE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.44, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Resistance target $5.50 (+23.9%), stop $4.25 (−4.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BTE stock price target?

Resistance target: $5.50 (+23.9% upside). Resistance target $5.50 (+23.9%), stop $4.25 (−4.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $4.25.

What are the risks of investing in BTE?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Negative momentum.

Is BTE overvalued or undervalued?

Baytex Energy Corp trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BTE?

15 analysts rate BTE, with a consensus score of 3.8/5.

What does Baytex Energy Corp do?Baytex Energy Corp., an energy company, engages in the acquisition, development, and production of crude oil and...

Baytex Energy Corp., an energy company, engages in the acquisition, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. It offers light oil and condensate, heavy oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. The company also holds 100% interest in Duvernay and Peace River properties in Alberta; and Lloydminster property in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Baytex Energy Corp. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Related stocks: MGY (Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation) · SM (SM Energy Company) · VIST (Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.) · DMLP (Dorchester Minerals, L.P.) · PR (Permian Resources Corporation)
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