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Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.48× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Eldorado Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, exploration, development, and sale of mineral products primarily in Turkey, Canada, and Greece. It primarily produces gold, as well as silver, lead, and zinc. The company holds a 100% interest in... Read more

$30.05+29.1% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#19 of 32 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-1.15%
IncomeYield0.95%(5y avg 0.85%)Payout2.62%sustainable
Stop $28.20Target $39.15(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$45.00+49.8%5 analysts
$39.15our TP
$30.05price
$45.00mean
$55

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.48× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and materials cycle peak fwd=5.3x,ratio=0.48x. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Eldorado Gold Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.1 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.48× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.1
P/E (Fwd)5.3
Mkt Cap$8.3B
EV/EBITDA7.7
Profit Mgn28.6%
ROE14.0%
Rev Growth49.9%
Beta1.39
Dividend0.95%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.97neutral
IV64%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.9
Quality Rank
3.4
Value Rank
6.7

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.3
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Macd
7.6
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5MATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=5.3x,ratio=0.48xA.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $28.50Resistance $35.88

Price Targets

$28
$39
A.Upside+30.3%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=5.3x,ratio=0.48x

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EGO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.48× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $28.20. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EGO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.15 (+29.1% upside). Prior stop was $28.20. Stop-loss: $28.20.

What are the risks of investing in EGO?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.48× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is EGO overvalued or undervalued?

Eldorado Gold Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.1 (forward 5.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EGO?

14 analysts cover EGO with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $45.

What does Eldorado Gold Corporation do?Eldorado Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, exploration, development, and sale of...

Eldorado Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, exploration, development, and sale of mineral products primarily in Turkey, Canada, and Greece. It primarily produces gold, as well as silver, lead, and zinc. The company holds a 100% interest in the Kisladag and Efemçukuru mines located in Turkey; Lamaque complex located in Quebec, Canada; Olympias located in northern Greece; and Stratoni, Skouries, Perama Hill, and Sapes gold mines located in Greece. The company was formerly known as Eldorado Corporation Ltd. and changed its name to Eldorado Gold Corporation in April 1996. Eldorado Gold Corporation was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

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