Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the BXMT stock price target?

Take-profit $18.27 (+2.7% upside). Prior stop was $17.23.

Q: What are the risks of investing in BXMT?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Target reached (2.7% upside); Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum.

Q: Is BXMT overvalued or undervalued?

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.4 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about BXMT?

15 analysts cover BXMT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $21.

Oversold Bounce setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 16 hr ago (May 20, 2026, 1:36 AM ET)

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.79 — A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate.

Blackstone Mortgage Trust is a REIT that originates, acquires, and manages senior commercial real estate loans and credit-oriented investments in North America, Europe, and Australia; externally managed by BXMT Advisors, a Blackstone subsidiary. Revenue is primarily net interest... Read more

$17.79+2.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#6 of 17 REIT - Mortgage

QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—

IncomeYield10.31%(5y avg 10.56%)Payout313.33%

Stop $17.23Target $18.27(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1

Analyst target$21.00+18.0%7 analysts

$18.27our TP

$17.79price

$21.00mean

$23

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.

Latest news

Reported Earlier, Blackstone Mortgage Trust Announces Pricing Of $450M In 6.250% Senior Secured Notes Due 2031 Via Priva — benzinga May 6, 2026 neutral
JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Lowers Price Target to $20 — benzinga Apr 30, 2026 neutral
Earnings Scheduled For April 29, 2026 — benzinga Apr 29, 2026 neutral
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Q1 Adj. EPS $0.21 Misses $0.36 Estimate, Sales $84.821M Miss $101.267M Estimate — benzinga Apr 29, 2026 negative
JP Morgan Upgrades Blackstone Mortgage Trust to Overweight, Announces $21 Price Target — benzinga Apr 16, 2026 positive

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong growth profile

Risks

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.4

P/E (Fwd)9.3

Mkt Cap$3.1B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn22.2%

ROE2.9%

Rev Growth34.9%

Beta0.95

Dividend10.31%

Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.36bearish

IV46%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate
10-K Item 1A: 'We seek to originate, acquire, and manage senior loans and other debt or credit-oriented investments collateralized by or relating to commercial real estate in North America, Europe, and Australia.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-02-11Item 5.02MEDIUM
CFO Anthony F. Marone Jr. resigned effective February 11, 2026; succeeded by Marcin Urbaszek (Deputy CFO since January 2025). Marone resigned to focus on role as Global Head of Blackstone Real Estate Finance. No disagreement cited.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.915%0.89

Quality5.215%0.78

Growth10.015%1.50

Momentum2.610%0.26

Sentiment6.710%0.67

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank3.610%0.36

Technical Setup8.95%0.45

Risk Profile4.35%0.21

Catalyst2.75%0.14

Overall (Σ contributions)5.75

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd

0.9

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

2.2

Rsi

3.0

Volume

6.0

Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History

0.0

Surprise Avg

0.0

Dividend Safety

3.5

Erm

5.0

Earnings Timing

5.0

Earnings concerns: 0B/4MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

1.2

Value Rank

1.7

Growth Rank

6.4

GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

27 · Oversold

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.76Resistance $20.30

Price Targets

$17

$18

A.Upside+2.7%

A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.7% upside)

! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

0/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is BXMT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.79 — A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 27, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $17.23. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BXMT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.27 (+2.7% upside). Prior stop was $17.23. Stop-loss: $17.23.

What are the risks of investing in BXMT?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Is BXMT overvalued or undervalued?

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.4 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BXMT?

15 analysts cover BXMT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. do?Blackstone Mortgage Trust is a REIT that originates, acquires, and manages senior commercial real estate loans and...