Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) Stock Analysis
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.15 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust is a REIT that originates, acquires, and manages senior commercial real estate loans and credit-oriented investments in North America, Europe, and Australia; externally managed by BXMT Advisors, a Blackstone subsidiary. Revenue is primarily net interest... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.15 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate10-K Item 1A: 'We seek to originate, acquire, and manage senior loans and other debt or credit-oriented investments collateralized by or relating to commercial real estate in North America, Europe, and Australia.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-11Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Anthony F. Marone Jr. resigned effective February 11, 2026; succeeded by Marcin Urbaszek (Deputy CFO since January 2025). Marone resigned to focus on role as Global Head of Blackstone Real Estate Finance. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.15 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $18.25. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $20.02 (+4.7% upside). Prior stop was $18.25. Stop-loss: $18.25.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (4).
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.8 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover BXMT with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $21.
What does Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. do?Blackstone Mortgage Trust is a REIT that originates, acquires, and manages senior commercial real estate loans and...
Blackstone Mortgage Trust is a REIT that originates, acquires, and manages senior commercial real estate loans and credit-oriented investments in North America, Europe, and Australia; externally managed by BXMT Advisors, a Blackstone subsidiary. Revenue is primarily net interest income on a floating-rate loan portfolio secured by institutional commercial real estate assets.