Covenant Logistics shows a bullish uptrend-pullback setup and an extremely cheap PEG ratio, but a quality score far below the engine's floor, a severe earnings-quality red flag, moderate insider selling, and a flagged dividend yield trap keep the engine's stance at exit.
Thesis pillars
- Uptrend Pullback Buy Opportunity↑Improving
- Peg Valuation Cheapness↓Deteriorating
- Quality Floor Exit Signal↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Industrials · Trucking
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $30.92: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 13.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Covenant Logistics Group is a truckload carrier and logistics provider operating roughly 2,300 tractors across four segments — Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing — which generated 29.95%, 33.47%, 27.08%, and 9.44% of 2025 freight revenue, respectively. One... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $30.92: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 13.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
About Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
Covenant Logistics Group operates approximately 2,300 tractors across four reportable segments — Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing — which respectively generated 29.95%, 33.47%, 27.08%, and 9.44% of 2025 freight revenue. One customer, served through the Expedited and Managed Freight segments, accounted for more than 10% of consolidated revenue in 2025, and the top ten customers together represented approximately 44% of total revenue.
Covenant earns Expedited and Dedicated revenue on a per-mile basis for truckload transportation, supplemented by detention, loading, and fuel-surcharge charges, while its non-asset-based Managed Freight segment brokers freight and provides transportation management services and its Warehousing segment manages customer facilities and freight-yard shuttle services. The company's Expedited fleet of roughly 800 tractors runs mostly two-person driver teams for time-sensitive, high-service freight, while its approximately 1,500-tractor Dedicated fleet serves customers under multi-year committed-capacity contracts of three to five years. Covenant also holds a 49% equity stake in Transport Enterprise Leasing, which contributed $14.7 million of equity income in both 2025 and 2024, and operates a young company-owned tractor fleet averaging about 2.0 years old versus a 6.3-year U.S. Class 8 industry average. The board raised the quarterly dividend to $0.07 per share in February 2025, continuing a series of increases since the program began in January 2022, and the company acquired freight-brokerage operator Star Logistics Solutions during 2025.
Show full overview
Customer concentration remains a swing factor for Covenant's results: the top ten customers supplied about 44% of 2025 revenue, and the single largest account exceeding 10% of consolidated revenue sits within the Expedited and Managed Freight segments, meaning a pricing renegotiation or volume pullback from that one relationship would disproportionately hit two of the company's four reportable segments at once. On May 13, 2026, the compensation committee approved 2026 long-term incentive awards for the company's named executive officers, including a $2,984,000 target award for CEO David Parker paid entirely in cash given his existing stock holdings — a routine compensation-cycle disclosure rather than a leadership change.
See also: Industrials · Trucking
From Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-11-02Recent Developments — Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Oct 29, 2026
- NEWS Covenant Logistics Gr Q3 Adj. EPS $0.50 Beats $0.44 Estimate, Sales $353.894M Beat $337.500M Estimate — benzinga Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS TD Cowen Maintains Buy on Covenant Logistics Gr, Lowers Price Target to $42 — benzinga Oct 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Full Transcript: Covenant Logistics Gr Q2 2026 Earnings Call — benzinga Sep 18, 2026 neutral
- NEWS This Sphere Entertainment Analyst Begins Coverage On A Bullish Note; Here Are Top 5 Initiations For Thursday — benzinga Aug 20, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-11-02T11:43:19Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomersingle largest customer10-K Item 1: 'We had one customer, serviced by our Expedited and Managed Freight reportable segments, that accounted for more than 10% of our consolidated revenue in 2025'
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers44%10-K Item 1: 'Our top ten customers accounted for approximately 44% and 45% of our total revenue in 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-15Item 5.02LOWCompensation Committee approved 2026 Long-Term Incentive Plan target awards for named executive officers, including $2,984,000 for CEO David Parker; a routine compensation-cycle action, not a leadership change.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $30.92: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 13.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $28.76. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $42.07 (+36.1% upside). Prior stop was $28.76. Stop-loss: $28.76.
Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 3092.0 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover CVLG with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $50.
What does Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. do?Covenant Logistics Group is a truckload carrier and logistics provider operating roughly 2,300 tractors across four...
Covenant Logistics Group is a truckload carrier and logistics provider operating roughly 2,300 tractors across four segments — Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing — which generated 29.95%, 33.47%, 27.08%, and 9.44% of 2025 freight revenue, respectively. One customer accounted for more than 10% of consolidated revenue in 2025, and the top ten customers together represented approximately 44% of total revenue.