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Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Tobacco

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $74.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States.

Altria Group operates primarily in the United States through PM USA (Marlboro cigarettes, 61.8B units in 2025), USSTC (Copenhagen, Skoal MST), Helix (on! oral nicotine pouches), NJOY (e-vapor), and Middleton (Black & Mild cigars). Substantially all revenue is from domestic... Read more

$74.00-1.3% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#2 of 6 Tobacco
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.94%
IncomeYield5.75%(5y avg 7.65%)Payout87.68%at-risk
Stop $70.46Target $73.07(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$69.45-6.1%11 analysts
$73.07our TP
$74.00price
$69.45mean
$50
$82

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $74.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.

Recent Developments — Altria Group, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.1 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.8% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.4
P/E (Fwd)12.6
Mkt Cap$123.1B
EV/EBITDA9.1
Profit Mgn39.5%
ROE
Rev Growth5.3%
Beta0.52
Dividend5.75%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.55bullish
IV31%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States
    10-K Item 1: 'We operate primarily within the United States and generate substantially all of our revenue from domestic customers.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Conservative
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $64.65Resistance $74.56

Price Targets

$70
$73
A.Upside-1.3%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $74.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $70.46. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $73.07 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $70.46. Stop-loss: $70.46.

What are the risks of investing in MO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.8% away).

Is MO overvalued or undervalued?

Altria Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.4 (forward 12.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MO?

24 analysts cover MO with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $69.

What does Altria Group, Inc. do?Altria Group operates primarily in the United States through PM USA (Marlboro cigarettes, 61.8B units in 2025), USSTC...

Altria Group operates primarily in the United States through PM USA (Marlboro cigarettes, 61.8B units in 2025), USSTC (Copenhagen, Skoal MST), Helix (on! oral nicotine pouches), NJOY (e-vapor), and Middleton (Black & Mild cigars). Substantially all revenue is from domestic customers; Marlboro has been the largest-selling US cigarette brand for over 50 years.

Related stocks: BTI (British American Tobacco Indus) · PM (Philip Morris International Inc) · MNST (Monster Beverage Corporation) · BUD (Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA Sponsor) · MKC (McCormick & Company, Incorporat)