Altria Group delivers exceptional operating margins of 40%, a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9, and a Rule of 40 of 47, but the stock has exceeded analyst price targets, carries a geographic concentration risk in a single country, and the dividend yield has been flagged as potentially unsustainable.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Operating Margins↑Improving
- Dividend Sustainability Concern↓Deteriorating
- Geographic Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Tobacco
Sell if holding. At $77.58, A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country nicotine source.
Altria Group manufactures and sells tobacco and nicotine products in the United States through PM USA (cigarettes), USSTC (smokeless tobacco), Helix (oral nicotine pouches), and NJOY (e-vapor), employing approximately 5,900 people. Revenue is generated almost entirely from... Read more
Sell if holding. At $77.58, A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country nicotine source. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.
About Altria Group, Inc.
About Altria Group, Inc.
Altria Group sold 61.8 billion cigarette units through PM USA — the largest cigarette company in the United States — and 732.4 million units of oral tobacco products in 2025, employing approximately 5,900 people at December 31, 2025. The company generates substantially all revenue from domestic U.S. customers across three reportable segments: smokeable products, oral tobacco products, and e-vapor, with Marlboro holding the position of largest-selling U.S. cigarette brand for over 50 years. In 2025, ITC exclusion and cease-and-desist orders on NJOY ACE triggered goodwill and intangible asset impairments in the e-vapor reporting unit.
Altria's smokeable products segment, led by PM USA and Middleton (cigars), sells principally to wholesalers and large retail organizations throughout the United States. PM USA purchases the majority of its burley and flue-cured leaf tobaccos directly from domestic growers under a contract growing program, while Middleton purchases through leaf merchants. PM USA faces annual healthcare cost recovery litigation settlement payments that competing manufacturers not party to those settlements are not required to match, creating a structural pricing challenge against discount brands. The oral tobacco segment spans Copenhagen, Skoal, and Red Seal MST products alongside the on! nicotine pouch brand from Helix. NJOY — which contracts with third-party importers to supply all of its products — faces ITC exclusion orders on NJOY ACE pending appeal before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. Altria also holds a 75% stake in Horizon, a joint venture with Japan Tobacco for U.S. commercialization of heated tobacco stick products, pending FDA authorization.
Show full overview
A single-source material risk surfaces in the smoke-free pivot: Altria's 10-K discloses that nicotine used in innovative smoke-free products is extracted from tobacco produced in one country, and if alternate sources cannot be identified, supply disruption could impair the company's growth initiatives. This exposure intersects with the accelerating volume decline in cigarettes — down 10% in 2025 — as the company depends on smoke-free product growth for long-term revenue offset. In 2025, the ITC's exclusion orders prohibiting NJOY ACE importation resulted in impairment charges to the e-vapor reporting unit, with the pending appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit leaving the ban in effect during proceedings.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Tobacco
From Altria Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — Altria Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Altria Group, Inc. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Raised to $70.6, Implies 3% Downside - TradingView — TradingView Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Altria Group Now Yields Twice as Much as Coca-Cola. Is It the Most Overlooked Dividend Stock? Here's the Clear Answer. - — The Motley Fool Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Altria Group (MO) Looks 5% Overvalued On Earnings Optimism - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS All It Takes Is 226 Shares of Altria Stock to Earn $1,000 a Year in Dividends. Is It Worth It? - The Motley Fool — The Motley Fool Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS All It Takes Is 226 Shares of Altria Stock to Earn $1,000 a Year in Dividends. Is It Worth It? - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail Oct 27, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-06T11:48:16Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUnited States10-K Item 1: 'we operate primarily within the United States and generate substantially all of our revenue from domestic customers'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-country nicotine source10-K Item 1A: 'the nicotine used in our operating companies' innovative smoke-free products is extracted from tobacco produced in one country'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-18Item 5.02LOWCompensation arrangements disclosed for newly elected CEO Salvatore Mancuso and new CFO, effective upon conclusion of Annual Meeting on May 14, 2026. Appointments were previously reported. No departure without successor.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $77.58, A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country nicotine source. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $73.92. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $63.91 reached (−17.6% from $77.58); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $73.92. Stop-loss: $73.92.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country nicotine source; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Altria Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.0 (forward 13.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts rate MO, with a consensus score of 3.6/5. 11 analysts publish price targets averaging $73.
What does Altria Group, Inc. do?Altria Group manufactures and sells tobacco and nicotine products in the United States through PM USA (cigarettes),...
Altria Group manufactures and sells tobacco and nicotine products in the United States through PM USA (cigarettes), USSTC (smokeless tobacco), Helix (oral nicotine pouches), and NJOY (e-vapor), employing approximately 5,900 people. Revenue is generated almost entirely from domestic U.S. customers, with Marlboro as the principal cigarette brand.