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Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Tobacco

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $73.42, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States domestic; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country tobacco nicotine supply.

Altria Group is a U.S.-focused tobacco and nicotine holding company operating through PM USA (cigarettes), USSTC (moist smokeless tobacco), Helix (oral nicotine pouches), NJOY (e-vapor), and Middleton (cigars), with approximately 5,900 employees and revenue substantially all... Read more

$73.42+9.3% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#5 of 6 Tobacco
Entry $66.23(50-day MA)Stop $62.97Target $72.37(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$65.58-10.7%12 analysts
$72.37our TP
$73.42price
$65.58mean
$50

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $73.42, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States domestic; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country tobacco nicotine supply. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $72.93 has reached target $72.37. No upside to wait for. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: conservative.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States domestic
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country tobacco nicotine supply
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.6
P/E (Fwd)11.7
Mkt Cap$114.0B
EV/EBITDA8.7
Profit Mgn34.5%
ROE
Rev Growth-0.5%
Beta0.45
Dividend6.22%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C1.47bearish
IV40%normal
Max Pain$35-52.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States domestic
    10-K Item 1: 'We operate primarily within the United States and generate substantially all of our revenue from domestic customers.'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle-country tobacco nicotine supply
    10-K Item 1A: 'the nicotine used in our operating companies' innovative smoke-free products is extracted from tobacco produced in one country'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -0.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.4
Declining revenue: -0%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.9
Gap
3.0
52w Position
9.8
Extreme gap up (8.3%) - may pull back
GatesA.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Conservative
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $64.08Resistance $73.85

Price Targets

$63
$66
$72
A.Upside-1.4%
A.R:R-1.8:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-21.8% upside)
! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $73.42, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States domestic; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country tobacco nicotine supply. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $72.93 has reached target $72.37. No upside to wait for. Target $72.37 (-1.4%), stop $62.97 (−16.6%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $72.37 (+9.3% upside). Target $72.37 (-1.4%), stop $62.97 (−16.6%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Stop-loss: $62.97.

What are the risks of investing in MO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States domestic; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country tobacco nicotine supply; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is MO overvalued or undervalued?

Altria Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.6 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MO?

24 analysts cover MO with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $66.

What does Altria Group, Inc. do?Altria Group is a U.S.-focused tobacco and nicotine holding company operating through PM USA (cigarettes), USSTC (moist...

Altria Group is a U.S.-focused tobacco and nicotine holding company operating through PM USA (cigarettes), USSTC (moist smokeless tobacco), Helix (oral nicotine pouches), NJOY (e-vapor), and Middleton (cigars), with approximately 5,900 employees and revenue substantially all from domestic customers. The company generates income from premium brands including Marlboro, Copenhagen, Skoal, and on! pouches sold to wholesalers and large retailers in the United States.

Related stocks: PM (Philip Morris International Inc) · BTI (British American Tobacco Indus) · SFD (Smithfield Foods, Inc.) · MNST (Monster Beverage Corporation) · DG (Dollar General Corporation)