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Walmart Inc. (WMT) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $131.07: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

Walmart Inc. ("Walmart," the "Company" or "we") is a people-led, technology-powered omnichannel retailer dedicated to helping people around the world save money and live better by providing the opportunity to shop in both retail stores and through eCommerce, and to access our... Read more

$131.07-0.8% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#9 of 9 Discount Stores
Stop $125.81Target $129.81(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$136.56+4.2%41 analysts
$129.81our TP
$131.07price
$136.56mean
$62
$150

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $131.07: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-4.0% upside)
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)46.9
P/E (Fwd)39.0
Mkt Cap$1.02T
EV/EBITDA24.6
Profit Mgn3.1%
ROE21.8%
Rev Growth5.6%
Beta0.66
Dividend0.77%
Rating analysts48

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.80neutral
IV40%normal
Max Pain$65-50.4% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-01-30Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously reported by Walmart Inc.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Value Rank
1.7
Quality Rank
4.4

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Peg Ratio
2.6
Pe
2.7
Forward Pe
2.8
Analyst Target
4.0
Ps
9.4
Forward P/E: 39.0xPEG: 4.78

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
1.0
Net Margin
1.5
Operating Margin
1.8
Current Ratio
3.2
Fcf Quality
3.9
Roa
4.6
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Roe
7.3
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 48% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $121.33Resistance $132.46

Price Targets

$126
$130
A.Upside-1.0%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-21 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WMT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $131.07: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $125.81. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WMT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $129.81 (-0.8% upside). Prior stop was $125.81. Stop-loss: $125.81.

What are the risks of investing in WMT?

Target reached (-4.0% upside); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is WMT overvalued or undervalued?

Walmart Inc. trades at a P/E of 46.9 (forward 39.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WMT?

48 analysts cover WMT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $137.

What does Walmart Inc. do?Walmart Inc. ("Walmart," the "Company" or "we") is a people-led, technology-powered omnichannel retailer dedicated to...

Walmart Inc. ("Walmart," the "Company" or "we") is a people-led, technology-powered omnichannel retailer dedicated to helping people around the world save money and live better by providing the opportunity to shop in both retail stores and through eCommerce, and to access our other service offerings.

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