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WMTWalmart Inc.Sell4.6·$112.20+0.32%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Three consecutive quarterly earnings beats offer near-term support, but a forward P/E of 36.4x and PEG of 4.68 leave the shares richly valued relative to growth, while free cash flow at only 30% of net income signals a quality shortfall. With approximately 5.9% remaining to the analyst price target and a risk/reward that barely clears 1-to-1, the setup favors patience over new exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Stretched Valuation HeadwindStable
  • Oversold Uptrend MomentumStable
  • Weak Free Cash ConversionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Walmart Inc. (WMT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $112.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Weak overall score: 4.6/10.

Walmart Inc. ("Walmart," the "Company" or "we") is a people-led, technology-powered omnichannel retailer dedicated to helping people around the world save money and live better by providing the opportunity to shop in both retail stores and through eCommerce, and to access our... Read more

$112.20+15.2% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#8 of 9 Discount Stores
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.77%
IncomeYield0.89%(5y avg 1.26%)Payout33.54%sustainable
Stop $104.73Target $127.50(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$138.59+23.5%41 analysts
$127.50our TP
$112.20price
$138.59mean
$81
$155

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $112.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Weak overall score: 4.6/10. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 20, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Weak overall score: 4.6/10
Negative momentum
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.2%), Material insider selling (28 sells, 0.12% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)39.4
P/E (Fwd)34.0
Mkt Cap$890.0B
EV/EBITDA21.4
Profit Mgn3.1%
ROE24.1%
Rev Growth7.3%
Beta0.60
Dividend0.89%
Rating analysts48

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.50bearish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$65-42.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
4.5
Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.7
Growth Rank
3.3
Quality Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $107.25Resistance $122.94

Price Targets

$105
$128
A.Upside+13.6%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-20 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WMT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $112.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Weak overall score: 4.6/10. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $104.73. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WMT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $127.50 (+15.2% upside). Prior stop was $104.73. Stop-loss: $104.73.

What are the risks of investing in WMT?

Weak overall score: 4.6/10; Negative momentum; Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.2%), Material insider selling (28 sells, 0.12% of cap).

Is WMT overvalued or undervalued?

Walmart Inc. trades at a P/E of 39.4 (forward 34.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WMT?

48 analysts cover WMT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $139.

What does Walmart Inc. do?Walmart Inc. ("Walmart," the "Company" or "we") is a people-led, technology-powered omnichannel retailer dedicated to...

Walmart Inc. ("Walmart," the "Company" or "we") is a people-led, technology-powered omnichannel retailer dedicated to helping people around the world save money and live better by providing the opportunity to shop in both retail stores and through eCommerce, and to access our other service offerings.

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