Skip to main content

Choice Hotels International, In (CHH) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Lodging

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $106.65 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

We are primarily a hotel franchisor operating in 49 states, the District of Columbia, and 50 countries and territories. As of December 31, 2025, we had 7,575 hotels with 656,825 rooms open and operating, and 825 hotels with 77,862 rooms under construction, awaiting conversion or... Read more

$106.65+13.8% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#6 of 8 Lodging
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield4.01%
IncomeYield1.08%(5y avg 1.10%)Payout15.54%sustainable
Stop $99.18Target $121.34(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$112.53+5.5%15 analysts
$121.34our TP
$106.65price
$112.53mean
$86
$129

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $106.65 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Choice Hotels International, In

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 15.4): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.4
P/E (Fwd)13.7
Mkt Cap$4.9B
EV/EBITDA14.0
Profit Mgn35.0%
ROE940.8%
Rev Growth3.5%
Beta0.65
Dividend1.08%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.07bullish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$50-53.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02MEDIUM
    .Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 20, 2026, Simone Wu, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Corporate Secretary & External Affairs of Choice Hotels International, Inc.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.4

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 108.0%
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $96.89Resistance $123.82

Price Targets

$99
$121
A.Upside+13.8%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $106.65 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $99.18. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the CHH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $121.34 (+13.8% upside). Prior stop was $99.18. Stop-loss: $99.18.

What are the risks of investing in CHH?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 15.4): -1.5.

Is CHH overvalued or undervalued?

Choice Hotels International, In trades at a P/E of 14.4 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CHH?

23 analysts cover CHH with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $113.

What does Choice Hotels International, In do?We are primarily a hotel franchisor operating in 49 states, the District of Columbia, and 50 countries and territories....

We are primarily a hotel franchisor operating in 49 states, the District of Columbia, and 50 countries and territories. As of December 31, 2025, we had 7,575 hotels with 656,825 rooms open and operating, and 825 hotels with 77,862 rooms under construction, awaiting conversion or approved for development, or committed to future franchise development on outstanding

Related stocks: ATAT (Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limite) · HTHT (H World Group Limited) · WH (Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.) · IHG (Intercontinental Hotels Group) · H (Hyatt Hotels Corporation)