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Carnival Corporation (CCL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $26.48 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.67).

Carnival Corporation is the largest global cruise company operating 8 cruise line brands including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, AIDA, Holland America Line, and Cunard, with 160,000+ team members serving 13.5M+ guests annually. Revenue comes from onboard and onshore... Read more

$26.48+17.2% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#9 of 15 Travel Services
Stop $24.65Target $31.06(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$34.51+30.3%22 analysts
$31.06our TP
$26.48price
$34.51mean
$45

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $26.48 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.67). Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5
Negative news sentiment (-0.67)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.3
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$35.4B
EV/EBITDA8.4
Profit Mgn11.5%
ROE27.9%
Rev Growth6.1%
Beta2.48
Dividend0.59%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.29bullish
IV68%elevated
Max Pain$15-43.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.5
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.1
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $24.74Resistance $30.16

Price Targets

$25
$31
A.Upside+17.3%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-24 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CCL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $26.48 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.67). Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $24.65. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the CCL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.06 (+17.2% upside). Prior stop was $24.65. Stop-loss: $24.65.

What are the risks of investing in CCL?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.67); Negative momentum.

Is CCL overvalued or undervalued?

Carnival Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.3 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CCL?

32 analysts cover CCL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Carnival Corporation do?Carnival Corporation is the largest global cruise company operating 8 cruise line brands including Carnival Cruise...

Carnival Corporation is the largest global cruise company operating 8 cruise line brands including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, AIDA, Holland America Line, and Cunard, with 160,000+ team members serving 13.5M+ guests annually. Revenue comes from onboard and onshore cruise vacation sales globally; in December 2025 the boards recommended unifying the dual-listed structure under a single entity.

Related stocks: TCOM (Trip.com Group Limited) · BKNG (Booking Holdings Inc. Common St) · VIK (Viking Holdings Ltd) · TNL (Travel Leisure Co.) · RCL (Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.)