Value
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 6.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.03
- ▸Attractively valued
CCL · Why this verdict
Why Carnival Corporation (CCL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Carnival is a cheaply valued cruise operator with strong operating margins and positive momentum, but thin 5.8% upside to the analyst target, leverage, and a very high beta limit the reward relative to risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Carnival trades at a forward P/E of 11.2x with a PEG of 0.99, so the shares are attractively valued relative to earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below ~14x and PEG stays near or below 1.0 over the next 12 months as earnings grow. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCruise earnings are highly cyclical and tied to consumer discretionary spending, so a low multiple may reflect peak-earnings risk rather than a bargain. | ||
Momentum is positive, with rising on-balance volume showing accumulation and the stock holding above its 200-day moving average. Bull case | Price stays above the 200-day moving average and accumulation continues over the coming months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 200-day average slope is flat and the shares have only 5.8% upside to the analyst target, so momentum may fade quickly. | ||
The analyst target of $30.50 is only 5.8% above the $28.83 price against 12.1% downside to the stop level, giving a reward-to-risk of about 0.5. Bear case | Analyst targets are raised or the price pulls back so that upside to target exceeds downside. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag in strong trends; improving earnings could drive upgrades that open the upside gap. | ||
Debt-to-equity of 1.8 triggers a leverage penalty, and only 58% of net income converts to free cash flow, which constrains balance-sheet flexibility. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion improves above 80% of net income and debt-to-equity declines below 1.5. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong operating margins and a 7 of 9 Piotroski score suggest balance sheet repair is on track and the 58% conversion may reflect heavy fleet investment timing. | ||
With a beta of 2.38 and implied volatility near 64%, the shares carry far more market risk than a typical holding and fit only an aggressive profile. Suitability rationale | Beta and implied volatility ease over the year as earnings stabilize. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh volatility cuts both ways; a consumer-spending upswing could produce outsized gains for a stock with 7.4 momentum. | ||
Carnival trades at a forward P/E of 11.2x with a PEG of 0.99, so the shares are attractively valued relative to earnings growth.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below ~14x and PEG stays near or below 1.0 over the next 12 months as earnings grow.
CounterCruise earnings are highly cyclical and tied to consumer discretionary spending, so a low multiple may reflect peak-earnings risk rather than a bargain.
Momentum is positive, with rising on-balance volume showing accumulation and the stock holding above its 200-day moving average.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Price stays above the 200-day moving average and accumulation continues over the coming months.
CounterThe 200-day average slope is flat and the shares have only 5.8% upside to the analyst target, so momentum may fade quickly.
The analyst target of $30.50 is only 5.8% above the $28.83 price against 12.1% downside to the stop level, giving a reward-to-risk of about 0.5.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised or the price pulls back so that upside to target exceeds downside.
CounterAnalyst targets lag in strong trends; improving earnings could drive upgrades that open the upside gap.
Debt-to-equity of 1.8 triggers a leverage penalty, and only 58% of net income converts to free cash flow, which constrains balance-sheet flexibility.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion improves above 80% of net income and debt-to-equity declines below 1.5.
CounterStrong operating margins and a 7 of 9 Piotroski score suggest balance sheet repair is on track and the 58% conversion may reflect heavy fleet investment timing.
With a beta of 2.38 and implied volatility near 64%, the shares carry far more market risk than a typical holding and fit only an aggressive profile.
→StableSuitability rationale
- Expectation
- Beta and implied volatility ease over the year as earnings stabilize.
CounterHigh volatility cuts both ways; a consumer-spending upswing could produce outsized gains for a stock with 7.4 momentum.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.0 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 7.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 5.7 |
| Current ratio | 1.1 |
| FCF quality | 4.5 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 58% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.4 |
| EPS growth | 3.0 |
Momentum
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 6.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $693,750 (0.002% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.4 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 9.3 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 2.5 |
| implied vol | 3.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 1.8 |
| debt equity | 3.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.63
- ▸Above max pain $12
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:44d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.8>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_FLAG:5.01,1.02
Reward-to-Risk
-0.25
Upside
-3.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.46>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.25 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.8, Value at 7.3, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Growth at 3.2, Technical at 3.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.25 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 16x from the current 11.2x.
- P2Positive Price Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the $26.91 stop level, which is below the 200-day average trend, from the current $28.83.
- P3Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target falls below 0% from the current 5.8%.
- P4Leverage And Earnings Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income conversion falls below 50% from the current 58%.
- P5High Beta Volatility Risk
Trip ifBeta stays above 2.5 from the current 2.38 for 2 consecutive quarters.