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Shake Shack, Inc. (SHAK) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $64.23: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.61; Below-average business quality.

Shake Shack operates 659 system-wide Shacks (373 company-owned, 286 licensed) in the premium fast-casual segment globally, with 45 new company-operated openings in 2025 targeting ~1,500 long-term. Revenue comes from Shack-level food sales and licensed royalties; domestic food... Read more

$64.23+34.7% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#10 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-0.37%
Stop $59.63Target $86.36(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$95.96+49.4%25 analysts
$86.36our TP
$64.23price
$95.96mean
$150

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $64.23: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.61; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 17, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Shake Shack, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)65.4
P/E (Fwd)39.4
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA19.0
Profit Mgn2.8%
ROE8.5%
Rev Growth14.3%
Beta1.78
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.61bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$125+94.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Volume
4.5
Capitulation risk (RSI 17, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
1.4
Net Margin
1.4
Roe
2.8
Gross Margin
4.1
Moat
5.6
Current Ratio
6.1
Piotroski F
8.9
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -24% FCF/NIStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
17 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $59.49Resistance $103.93

Price Targets

$60
$86
A.Upside+34.5%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHAK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $64.23: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.61; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 17, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $59.63. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SHAK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $86.36 (+34.7% upside). Prior stop was $59.63. Stop-loss: $59.63.

What are the risks of investing in SHAK?

Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is SHAK overvalued or undervalued?

Shake Shack, Inc. trades at a P/E of 65.4 (forward 39.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SHAK?

36 analysts cover SHAK with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $96.

What does Shake Shack, Inc. do?Shake Shack operates 659 system-wide Shacks (373 company-owned, 286 licensed) in the premium fast-casual segment...

Shake Shack operates 659 system-wide Shacks (373 company-owned, 286 licensed) in the premium fast-casual segment globally, with 45 new company-operated openings in 2025 targeting ~1,500 long-term. Revenue comes from Shack-level food sales and licensed royalties; domestic food distribution is concentrated through a single broadline distributor.

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