Shake Shack, Inc. (SHAK) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $101.83 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single ShackSauce supplier.
Shake Shack operates 659 system-wide Shacks (373 company-operated, 286 licensed) globally serving premium burgers, chicken, and milkshakes. Revenue comes from company-operated Shack sales and licensed Shack royalties; supply is concentrated in a limited number of single-source... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $101.83 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single ShackSauce supplier. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSuppliersingle ground beef supplier38%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 38% of our ground beef patties from one supplier'
- HIGHSuppliersingle ShackSauce supplier10-K Item 1A: '(vii) ShackSauce from one supplier'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-09Item 5.02LOWDirector Joshua Silverman resigned from Board effective May 1, 2026 after 9+ years. Board reducing size from 9 to 8 directors effective May 1, 2026. No disagreement with Company cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-24Item 5.02HIGHCorporate Controller Peter Herpich designated interim principal financial officer February 23, 2026. CFO Katherine Fogertey resigned November 2025; formal CFO search underway. No permanent successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $101.83 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single ShackSauce supplier. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $94.70. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $103.53 (+1.7% upside). Prior stop was $94.70. Stop-loss: $94.70.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single ShackSauce supplier; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.
Shake Shack, Inc. trades at a P/E of 92.3 (forward 57.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
35 analysts cover SHAK with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $115.
What does Shake Shack, Inc. do?Shake Shack operates 659 system-wide Shacks (373 company-operated, 286 licensed) globally serving premium burgers,...
Shake Shack operates 659 system-wide Shacks (373 company-operated, 286 licensed) globally serving premium burgers, chicken, and milkshakes. Revenue comes from company-operated Shack sales and licensed Shack royalties; supply is concentrated in a limited number of single-source ingredient suppliers.