Shake Shack trades 28% below analyst targets with strong 42% analyst upside and 3-of-4 earnings beats, but the company's free cash flow is deeply negative relative to net income, quality is below minimum thresholds, and a 3.05 put-to-call ratio signals heavy institutional hedging against the current price.
Thesis pillars
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality Flag→Stable
- Strong Earnings Beat Streak Growth→Stable
- Large Analyst Upside Gap↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Shake Shack, Inc. (SHAK) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $56.82: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Shake Shack operates 659 Shacks globally — 373 company-operated and 286 licensed — serving premium burgers, chicken, and shakes, targeting approximately 1,500 company-operated locations long-term. Company-operated Shacks generate transactional food and beverage revenue; licensed... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $56.82: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — Shake Shack, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Shake Shack, Cava Stocks Bounce Back. But Not All Fast-Casual Restaurants Are Equal. - Barron's — Barron's positive
- NEWS Earnings To Watch: Shake Shack (SHAK) Reports Q1 Results Tomorrow - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Will Shake Shack (SHAK) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Shake Shack (SHAK) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Will Shake Shack (SHAK) beat estimates again in its next earnings report? - MSN — MSN positive
Generated 2026-09-26T04:01:58Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierone ground beef supplier38%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 38% of our ground beef patties from one supplier'
- HIGHSupplier'Shroom Burgers10-K Item 1A: ''Shroom Burgers from one supplier'
- HIGHSupplierShackSauce10-K Item 1A: 'ShackSauce from one supplier'
- HIGHSupplierone national distribution company10-K Item 1A: 'rely on one national distribution company for the majority of our domestic distribution needs'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-07Item 5.02MEDIUMMichelle Hook appointed CFO of Shake Shack effective May 11, 2026, reporting to CEO Robert Lynch. Hook previously served as CFO of Portillo's Inc. since December 2020 and spent 17+ years at Domino's Pizza. No reason cited for prior CFO departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $56.82: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $53.09. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $72.90 (+28.3% upside). Prior stop was $53.09. Stop-loss: $53.09.
Concentration risk — Supplier: 'Shroom Burgers; Concentration risk — Supplier: ShackSauce; Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).
Shake Shack, Inc. trades at a P/E of 61.8 (forward 41.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
34 analysts cover SHAK with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $81.
What does Shake Shack, Inc. do?Shake Shack operates 659 Shacks globally — 373 company-operated and 286 licensed — serving premium burgers, chicken,...
Shake Shack operates 659 Shacks globally — 373 company-operated and 286 licensed — serving premium burgers, chicken, and shakes, targeting approximately 1,500 company-operated locations long-term. Company-operated Shacks generate transactional food and beverage revenue; licensed Shacks generate royalties from international and domestic non-traditional venues.