Value
9.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.08
- ▸Attractively valued
BTE · Why this verdict
Why Baytex Energy (BTE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Baytex Energy shows 51% revenue growth, a 9/9 Piotroski score and positive momentum near its 52-week high, but it is burning cash (FCF -13% of revenue), has missed earnings in 3 of 4 quarters and reports in 4 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The high yield is flagged as unsafe, with dividend safety scoring 4.3 out of 10, and the news modifier of -2 points to negative recent headlines. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety score rises above 6.0 as free cash flow turns positive. | →Stable |
| CounterDebt-to-equity scores a strong 9.7 out of 10 and peers rank the company conservative on debt, so financial stress may be limited. | ||
Baytex is growing revenue 51% YoY, supported by a PEG of 0.08 and a forward P/E of 14.0x. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 25% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue data is only provisional from yfinance, and net margin and ROE are scored 0.0 out of 10, so growth is not yet reaching shareholders. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 shows broadly improving fundamentals, but free cash flow is negative at -13% of revenue. Quality breakdown | FCF margin turns positive and rises above 0% within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCash-burning operations with a high yield flagged as unsafe suggest the distribution may be funded by debt or asset sales. | ||
Baytex missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with surprises of -1844% and -2685.5%, then beat by 192.5% last quarter, so earnings are highly erratic going into the report in 4 days. Earnings | EPS surprise stays positive at the 2026-11-05 report. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimates are tiny relative to actuals, which makes percentage surprises unreliable, and earnings history is scored 0.0 out of 10. | ||
Price is above the 200-day average with rising OBV (volume accumulation) and within 4.1% of the 52-week high, with resistance at $5.50. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the $5.00 stop level and breaks above $5.50. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI of 73 marks the stock as overbought, and upside to resistance is only 2.2% against 7.1% downside. | ||
The high yield is flagged as unsafe, with dividend safety scoring 4.3 out of 10, and the news modifier of -2 points to negative recent headlines.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety score rises above 6.0 as free cash flow turns positive.
CounterDebt-to-equity scores a strong 9.7 out of 10 and peers rank the company conservative on debt, so financial stress may be limited.
Baytex is growing revenue 51% YoY, supported by a PEG of 0.08 and a forward P/E of 14.0x.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 25% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterRevenue data is only provisional from yfinance, and net margin and ROE are scored 0.0 out of 10, so growth is not yet reaching shareholders.
A Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 shows broadly improving fundamentals, but free cash flow is negative at -13% of revenue.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin turns positive and rises above 0% within 12 months.
CounterCash-burning operations with a high yield flagged as unsafe suggest the distribution may be funded by debt or asset sales.
Baytex missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with surprises of -1844% and -2685.5%, then beat by 192.5% last quarter, so earnings are highly erratic going into the report in 4 days.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive at the 2026-11-05 report.
CounterEstimates are tiny relative to actuals, which makes percentage surprises unreliable, and earnings history is scored 0.0 out of 10.
Price is above the 200-day average with rising OBV (volume accumulation) and within 4.1% of the 52-week high, with resistance at $5.50.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the $5.00 stop level and breaks above $5.50.
CounterRSI of 73 marks the stock as overbought, and upside to resistance is only 2.2% against 7.1% downside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 7.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -13% of revenue
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 6.2 |
- ▸Strong growth: 51% YoY
Momentum
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 1.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 21, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.9 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 0.5 |
| growth rank | 6.9 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.8 |
| 52w position | 5.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 9.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.3 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+27.9%
Downside
11.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 9.5; weakest: Momentum at 1.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Technical at 8.4, and Growth at 8.1; the weakest are Momentum at 1.5, Catalyst at 3.2, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Piotroski Versus Cash Burn
Trip ifFCF margin stays below -10% of revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Erratic Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Positive Momentum Near HighTripped
Trip ifShare price falls below $5.00, the stop level, from the current $5.38.
- P5Yield Trap Risk
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 3.0 from the current 4.3.