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BTDRBitdeer Technologies GroupSell5.8·$11.56-5.00%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Revenue is growing at a triple-digit pace and price momentum remains technically constructive, but the company burns cash at a rate equal to its entire revenue base, has missed earnings estimates in every quarter over the past year by an average of 64%, and carries a 34% short interest — growth alone has not been sufficient to validate the business model.

Thesis pillars

  • Cash Burn Quality FailureStable
  • Hypergrowth Revenue TrajectoryStable
  • Extreme Short InterestImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthShortModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.56: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 4.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 37%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Bitdeer Technologies Group operates as a technology company for blockchain and high-performance computing (HPC) in Singapore, the United States, Bhutan, Norway, Finland, Ethiopia, Canada, and internationally. The company offers hash rate sharing solutions, including cloud hash... Read more

$11.56+70.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#66 of 125 Software - Application
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-26.17%
Stop $10.75Target $19.70(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.7:1
Analyst target$22.64+95.9%12 analysts
$19.70our TP
$11.56price
$22.64mean
$35

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.56: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 4.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 37%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 22d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 17, 202622d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -62099.0%), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-29.5
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA9.7
Profit Mgn-27.0%
ROE-26.1%
Rev Growth169.4%
Beta2.47
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C1.13bearish
IV137%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.9
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Macd
2.8
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Hyper-growth tech sacrificing current profitability for scale. Floor tripped because model treats negative margins uniformly; the growth dimension tells the other half of the story.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
4.1
Moat
4.2
Piotroski F
5.6
Current Ratio
6.5
Cash-burning: FCF -100% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Volatile — 10.5% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Short Interest
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Beta
1.8
Debt Equity
2.2
Days To Cover
4.6
Put Call
5.8
Max Pain Risk
7.0
High short interest justified: 37%High IV: 137%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.6
Value Rank
4.1
Growth Rank
9.8
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 4.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 22d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $10.28Resistance $17.90

Price Targets

$11
$20
A.Upside+70.4%
A.R:R4.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -62099.0%), Negative free cash flow
! momentum at 1.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-17 (22d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BTDR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.56: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 4.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 37%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $10.75. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BTDR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.70 (+70.4% upside). Prior stop was $10.75. Stop-loss: $10.75.

What are the risks of investing in BTDR?

Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -62099.0%), Negative free cash flow.

Is BTDR overvalued or undervalued?

Bitdeer Technologies Group trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -29.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BTDR?

19 analysts cover BTDR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $23.

What does Bitdeer Technologies Group do?Bitdeer Technologies Group operates as a technology company for blockchain and high-performance computing (HPC) in...

Bitdeer Technologies Group operates as a technology company for blockchain and high-performance computing (HPC) in Singapore, the United States, Bhutan, Norway, Finland, Ethiopia, Canada, and internationally. The company offers hash rate sharing solutions, including cloud hash rate and hash-rate subscription plans; and a one-stop mining rig hosting solution comprising deployment, maintenance, and management services for cryptocurrency mining; as well as mining cryptocurrencies for its own account. It also operates mining datacenters to generate hash rates; handles various processes involved in computing, such as equipment procurement, transport logistics, datacenter design and construction, equipment management, and daily operations; and sells mining rigs. In addition, the company offers Minerplus, a software platform that offers software support to reduce time needed for daily maintenance and mining rig upgrade; AI infrastructure and AI cloud business to offer advanced AI cloud capabilities, HPC services and colocation services; and mining solutions under the SEALMINER brand. The company is headquartered in Singapore.

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