Value
8.5/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1 |
- ▸Attractively valued
BTDR · Why this verdict
Why Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bitdeer is a very fast-growing (47% YoY) small-cap with modest insider buying, but four straight earnings misses, a 3/9 Piotroski score, 33% short interest and a 76% drawdown make it a highly speculative rebound case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Bitdeer is growing revenue 47% YoY and ranks as an industry growth leader, which supports a rebound if growth converts to profit. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 30% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGross margin, operating margin and net margin are all scored 0.0 out of 10, so growth is not producing profit. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, no competitive moat and a quality score of 1.8 (below the 4.0 floor) leave no fundamental support for the valuation. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score rises above 5 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPeer quality rank is 0.5 out of 10 and debt-to-equity scores only 3.5, so balance-sheet strain could force dilution. | ||
Bitdeer missed estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of -58%, so earnings execution must improve for the stock to recover. Earnings | EPS surprise turns positive at the 2026-11-10 report, which is 9 days away. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe latest misses came after a -167.9% miss, and earnings concerns of 0 beats and 4 misses show a persistent pattern. | ||
Insiders bought $447,000 over 90 days across 2 purchases with no sales, a BULLISH signal during the 76% drawdown. Insider | Insiders keep net buying and institutions keep accumulating over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe purchases are only 0.025% of market cap and are too small to show strong conviction. | ||
RSI near 27 below the 200-day average with a death cross and falling OBV signals capitulation, with resistance at $11.29 as the rebound target. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 40 and price holds above the $6.24 stop level. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterShort interest of 33% and implied volatility of 320% show extreme positioning, and the downtrend is confirmed. | ||
Bitdeer is growing revenue 47% YoY and ranks as an industry growth leader, which supports a rebound if growth converts to profit.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 30% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGross margin, operating margin and net margin are all scored 0.0 out of 10, so growth is not producing profit.
A Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, no competitive moat and a quality score of 1.8 (below the 4.0 floor) leave no fundamental support for the valuation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score rises above 5 within 12 months.
CounterPeer quality rank is 0.5 out of 10 and debt-to-equity scores only 3.5, so balance-sheet strain could force dilution.
Bitdeer missed estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of -58%, so earnings execution must improve for the stock to recover.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise turns positive at the 2026-11-10 report, which is 9 days away.
CounterThe latest misses came after a -167.9% miss, and earnings concerns of 0 beats and 4 misses show a persistent pattern.
Insiders bought $447,000 over 90 days across 2 purchases with no sales, a BULLISH signal during the 76% drawdown.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insiders keep net buying and institutions keep accumulating over the next two quarters.
CounterThe purchases are only 0.025% of market cap and are too small to show strong conviction.
RSI near 27 below the 200-day average with a death cross and falling OBV signals capitulation, with resistance at $11.29 as the rebound target.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 40 and price holds above the $6.24 stop level.
CounterShort interest of 33% and implied volatility of 320% show extreme positioning, and the downtrend is confirmed.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 47% YoY
Momentum
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.5 |
| Analyst rating | 8.6 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 220%
Insider
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $447,000 (0.027% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 0.5 |
| growth rank | 9.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.6 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.2 |
| days to cover | 4.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 0.9 |
| debt equity | 3.5 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 33%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.20
- ▸High IV: 140%
- ▸Above max pain $1
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+54.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -75% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.7<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.5, and Insider at 7.9; the weakest are Momentum at 1.7, Quality at 1.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 1.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rapid Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for the next 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Weak Quality No Moat
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 2 from the current 3.
- P4Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifInsiders become net sellers of more than $500,000 over 90 days.
- P5Capitulation Downtrend
Trip ifShare price falls below $6.24, the stop level, from the current $6.71.