Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
BP · Why this verdict
Why BP p.l.c. (BP) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BP has a strong earnings beat streak, cheap valuation (8.7x forward P/E) and excellent cash conversion, but the $50.39 price is already above the $48.65 analyst target and it sits near its 52-week high.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at an 8.7x forward P/E with a 189% FCF/NI conversion and a 4.1% dividend. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above net income and forward P/E stays below 11x. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe company has no competitive moat and quality ranks near the bottom of its peers (0.33). | ||
BP beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters by +23.8%, +24.6% and +33.3% for an average surprise of 20.3%. Last 4 quarters | EPS continues to beat in the report due 2027-02-09. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEnergy earnings track commodity prices, so beats may reflect oil-price gains rather than execution and reverse if prices fall. | ||
At $50.39 the stock is above the $48.65 analyst target (upside of -3.4%), leaving no analyst-implied upside. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised above $50 following continued earnings beats. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is within 2.1% of its 52-week high, so further gains rely on oil prices rather than valuation. | ||
Revenue grew 41% YoY, scoring 10/10 for growth, on provisional data. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays positive and above 10% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth is driven by energy prices and revenue data is provisional, so the 41% could reverse in a downturn. | ||
Momentum is 6.9/10 with a golden cross, price above its 200-day average and rising volume. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average and momentum stays above 5.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA breakout near the 52-week high with a negative asymmetry ratio of -0.28 offers little margin for error. | ||
The stock trades at an 8.7x forward P/E with a 189% FCF/NI conversion and a 4.1% dividend.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above net income and forward P/E stays below 11x.
CounterThe company has no competitive moat and quality ranks near the bottom of its peers (0.33).
BP beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters by +23.8%, +24.6% and +33.3% for an average surprise of 20.3%.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS continues to beat in the report due 2027-02-09.
CounterEnergy earnings track commodity prices, so beats may reflect oil-price gains rather than execution and reverse if prices fall.
At $50.39 the stock is above the $48.65 analyst target (upside of -3.4%), leaving no analyst-implied upside.
Tripped↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above $50 following continued earnings beats.
CounterThe stock is within 2.1% of its 52-week high, so further gains rely on oil prices rather than valuation.
Revenue grew 41% YoY, scoring 10/10 for growth, on provisional data.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays positive and above 10% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth is driven by energy prices and revenue data is provisional, so the 41% could reverse in a downturn.
Momentum is 6.9/10 with a golden cross, price above its 200-day average and rising volume.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average and momentum stays above 5.5.
CounterA breakout near the 52-week high with a negative asymmetry ratio of -0.28 offers little margin for error.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 1.9 |
| Op margin | 7.4 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 189% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 41% YoY
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 0.3 |
| growth rank | 6.5 |
Technical
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 5.5 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 5.8 |
| put call | 8.7 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 5.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $25
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 4.3%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:98d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.43
Upside
+2.8%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Peer rank at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.0, and Technical at 6.9; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.3, Momentum at 4.6, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.43 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Cheap Valuation Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% from current 189%.
- P3Price Above Analyst TargetTripped
Trip ifShare price falls below $48.65, more than 3% below $50.39, reaching the analyst target.
- P4Revenue Growth Surge
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% YoY from current 41%.
- P5Breakout Momentum Trend
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from current 6.9.