TopBuild Corp. (BLD) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Sell if holding. At $400.76, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
TopBuild installs insulation and commercial roofing (59% of sales) and distributes insulation and specialty building products (41% of sales) through 200+ installation branches and 250+ distribution centers across the U.S. and Canada. Customers include production homebuilders,... Read more
Sell if holding. At $400.76, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — TopBuild Corp.
Latest news
- TopBuild Sets Q1 2026 Release Amid QXO Acquisition - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- TopBuild (BLD): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q4 Earnings? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- TopBuild (BLD) Expected to Announce Earnings on Tuesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- Calamos Advisors LLC Purchases 2,533 Shares of TopBuild Corp. $BLD - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- UBS Group AG Sells 25,241 Shares of TopBuild Corp. $BLD - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierCertainTeed, Johns Manville, Knauf, and Owens Corning10-K Item 1: 'We source the majority of our fiberglass building products from four primary U.S.-based residential fiberglass insulation manufacturers: CertainTeed, Johns Manville, Knauf, and Owens Corning'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-17Item 5.02LOWVP and Chief Growth Officer Joseph M. Viselli notified TopBuild of intention to retire effective June 30, 2026, solely for personal reasons. No disagreement cited. Will remain to facilitate transition; no successor named.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-02Item 5.02LOWJohn Achille promoted from VP and COO to President and COO effective April 1, 2026. Will continue reporting to CEO Robert Buck, now also overseeing Supply Chain and all growth/M&A initiatives.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $400.76, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $388.00. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $413.51 (+3.2% upside). Prior stop was $388.00. Stop-loss: $388.00.
Thin upside margin: 3.2%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.
TopBuild Corp. trades at a P/E of 22.5 (forward 19.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover BLD with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $475.
What does TopBuild Corp. do?TopBuild installs insulation and commercial roofing (59% of sales) and distributes insulation and specialty building...
TopBuild installs insulation and commercial roofing (59% of sales) and distributes insulation and specialty building products (41% of sales) through 200+ installation branches and 250+ distribution centers across the U.S. and Canada. Customers include production homebuilders, commercial contractors, school districts, and municipalities; top customer was 3.1% and top 10 were 10.6% of revenues in 2025.