TopBuild Corp. (BLD) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $416.01 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.
TopBuild installs insulation and commercial roofing (59% of sales) and distributes insulation and specialty building products (41% of sales) through 200+ installation branches and 250+ distribution centers across the U.S. and Canada. Customers include production homebuilders,... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $416.01 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About TopBuild Corp.
About TopBuild Corp.
TopBuild's two-segment structure — Installation Services (59% of 2025 sales) and Specialty Distribution (41%) — covers both the contractor-installer and distributor layers of the U.S. and Canadian insulation and commercial roofing market. The installation network operates more than 200 branches in the continental United States and the distribution business runs over 250 centers; combined headcount reached 14,707 at December 31, 2025, with 596 employees covered by 40 collective bargaining agreements expiring through 2029.
TopBuild earns installation revenue from national and regional homebuilders, commercial contractors, municipalities, and school districts by handling material procurement, project scheduling, and multi-phase installation. Specialty Distribution sells insulation, accessories, and roofing materials to thousands of contractor accounts, with insulation and accessories at roughly 88% of Distribution segment sales. The customer base is highly diversified: the top customer represented 3.1% of 2025 revenues and the top ten totaled 10.6%. The majority of fiberglass building products are sourced from four primary manufacturers — CertainTeed, Johns Manville, Knauf, and Owens Corning — and the fiberglass insulation industry has historically experienced significant supply-allocation periods. TopBuild's cost base is exposed to insulation and roofing material price cycles, and the company generally does not have exclusivity agreements with these four suppliers, providing flexibility to shift purchasing based on regional supply and pricing. Commercial roofing maintenance work tends to be less cyclical than new-construction insulation, partially offsetting residential housing cycle sensitivity.
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TopBuild's Installation Services business is tightly linked to housing starts and commercial construction — conditions the 10-K notes could lead customers to 'significantly reduce' construction projects in economic downturns, particularly when elevated interest rates suppress housing affordability. The company's expansion into commercial roofing maintenance partially offsets new-construction cyclicality, but the 10-K acknowledges that roofing services remain susceptible to the same macroeconomic influences. Labor availability is a structural constraint: the company employs 6,744 insulation installers out of 14,707 total employees — a workforce category facing persistent skilled-trade shortages — and voluntary turnover across all employee categories was 22% in 2025, down from 24.7% in 2024.
See also: Industrials · Engineering & Construction
From TopBuild Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — TopBuild Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS TopBuild Sets Q1 2026 Release Amid QXO Acquisition - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS TopBuild (BLD): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q4 Earnings? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS TopBuild (BLD) Expected to Announce Earnings on Tuesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Calamos Advisors LLC Purchases 2,533 Shares of TopBuild Corp. $BLD - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS UBS Group AG Sells 25,241 Shares of TopBuild Corp. $BLD - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-06-17T09:02:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierCertainTeed, Johns Manville, Knauf, and Owens Corning10-K Item 1: 'We source the majority of our fiberglass building products from four primary U.S.-based residential fiberglass insulation manufacturers: CertainTeed, Johns Manville, Knauf, and Owens Corning'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-17Item 5.02LOWVP and Chief Growth Officer Joseph M. Viselli notified TopBuild of intention to retire effective June 30, 2026, solely for personal reasons. No disagreement cited. Will remain to facilitate transition; no successor named.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-02Item 5.02LOWJohn Achille promoted from VP and COO to President and COO effective April 1, 2026. Will continue reporting to CEO Robert Buck, now also overseeing Supply Chain and all growth/M&A initiatives.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $416.01 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Prior stop was $395.39. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $416.81 (+0.2% upside). Prior stop was $395.39. Stop-loss: $395.39.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
TopBuild Corp. trades at a P/E of 23.1 (forward 19.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover BLD with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $474.
What does TopBuild Corp. do?TopBuild installs insulation and commercial roofing (59% of sales) and distributes insulation and specialty building...
TopBuild installs insulation and commercial roofing (59% of sales) and distributes insulation and specialty building products (41% of sales) through 200+ installation branches and 250+ distribution centers across the U.S. and Canada. Customers include production homebuilders, commercial contractors, school districts, and municipalities; top customer was 3.1% and top 10 were 10.6% of revenues in 2025.