TopBuild Corp. (BLD) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $443.62 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.
TopBuild is a leading installer of insulation and commercial roofing and specialty distributor of building products in the US and Canada. Installation Services (~59% of sales, 200+ branches) and Specialty Distribution (~41%, 250+ centers) serve residential and commercial... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $443.62 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of large suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'we procure the majority of our building products—principally insulation and roofing materials—from a limited number of large suppliers'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-17Item 5.02LOWJoseph M. Viselli (VP and Chief Growth Officer) notified intent to retire effective June 30, 2026. Will remain through transition. Decision for personal reasons; no disagreement cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-02Item 5.02LOWJohn Achille promoted from VP and COO to President and COO effective April 1, 2026. Retains responsibility for Installation Services, Specialty Distribution, Supply Chain, and growth/M&A. Reports to CEO Robert Buck.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $443.62 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $411.25. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $481.33 (+8.8% upside). Prior stop was $411.25. Stop-loss: $411.25.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Earnings in 4 days (event risk).
TopBuild Corp. trades at a P/E of 24.0 (forward 20.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover BLD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $479.
What does TopBuild Corp. do?TopBuild is a leading installer of insulation and commercial roofing and specialty distributor of building products in...
TopBuild is a leading installer of insulation and commercial roofing and specialty distributor of building products in the US and Canada. Installation Services (~59% of sales, 200+ branches) and Specialty Distribution (~41%, 250+ centers) serve residential and commercial construction customers.