Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 6.8 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.04
- ▸Attractively valued
BIRK · Why this verdict
Why Birkenstock Holding (BIRK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Birkenstock combines a wide economic moat, strong Piotroski quality and an attractive 12.2x forward P/E, but a confirmed downtrend, very heavy insider selling and weak earnings growth argue against adding until the selling pressure clears.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The earnings growth component scores 0.0 and the last two quarters were misses, including -15.8% on 2026-05-13, with the next report on 2026-12-17. Last 4 quarters | EPS meets or beats estimates in the next 2 reports and growth score rises above 3.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRevenue of $719.5 million in the latest quarter is up from $635.0 million a year earlier, and the average surprise across four quarters is still +6.8%. | ||
Birkenstock has a wide economic moat and strong returns plus growth, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a quality score of 7.0. Quality breakdown | Quality stays at or above 7.0 and operating margin holds over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality is flagged as a red flag at 46% free cash flow to net income, so reported profits are not converting fully to cash. | ||
Forward P/E is 12.2x with a PEG of 0.98, and price of $33.43 is 36.0% below the analyst target of $45.47. Valuation breakdown | Price re-rates toward the $45.47 target as earnings are delivered over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag a falling price, and a cheap multiple on a consumer cyclical name can stay cheap if earnings growth stays weak. | ||
Insiders sold about $1.10 billion of stock in the last 90 days, equal to 19.98% of market cap, with no buys. Insider breakdown | Insider selling slows to under 1% of market cap per quarter, removing the supply overhang. | →Stable |
| CounterA single large sale by a sponsor or pre-IPO holder can be a one-off liquidity event rather than a view on the business, and institutions are noted as accumulating. | ||
Price is below its 200-day average with the average sloping down 3.8% over 30 days, short interest is 16% and the put/call ratio is 2.41. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 4.5 over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI of 48 and mid-band Bollinger readings suggest a range-bound stock, and heavy short interest can fuel a squeeze if results improve. | ||
The earnings growth component scores 0.0 and the last two quarters were misses, including -15.8% on 2026-05-13, with the next report on 2026-12-17.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates in the next 2 reports and growth score rises above 3.0.
CounterRevenue of $719.5 million in the latest quarter is up from $635.0 million a year earlier, and the average surprise across four quarters is still +6.8%.
Birkenstock has a wide economic moat and strong returns plus growth, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a quality score of 7.0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality stays at or above 7.0 and operating margin holds over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality is flagged as a red flag at 46% free cash flow to net income, so reported profits are not converting fully to cash.
Forward P/E is 12.2x with a PEG of 0.98, and price of $33.43 is 36.0% below the analyst target of $45.47.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price re-rates toward the $45.47 target as earnings are delivered over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets lag a falling price, and a cheap multiple on a consumer cyclical name can stay cheap if earnings growth stays weak.
Insiders sold about $1.10 billion of stock in the last 90 days, equal to 19.98% of market cap, with no buys.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows to under 1% of market cap per quarter, removing the supply overhang.
CounterA single large sale by a sponsor or pre-IPO holder can be a one-off liquidity event rather than a view on the business, and institutions are noted as accumulating.
Price is below its 200-day average with the average sloping down 3.8% over 30 days, short interest is 16% and the put/call ratio is 2.41.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 4.5 over the next two quarters.
CounterRSI of 48 and mid-band Bollinger readings suggest a range-bound stock, and heavy short interest can fuel a squeeze if results improve.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 7.5 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 7.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 3.7 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 46% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 34%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| holder change | 7.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $1,102,769,135 (18.796% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 5.0 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.2 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 6.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 16%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.78
- ▸High IV: 60%
- ▸Above max pain $15
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.4 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:18.80%=EXTREME
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.2>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.37
Upside
+20.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot, INSIDER:18.80%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.37 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.6, Value at 7.4, and Quality at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 2.3, Growth at 2.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Quality Compounder
Trip ifQuality score falls below 6.0 from current 7.0.
- P2Attractive Valuation Large Upside
Trip ifAnalyst-target upside falls below 15% from current 36% while forward P/E stays above 12x.
- P3Extreme Insider Selling Overhang
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds 10% of market cap again in the next 90 days.
- P4Downtrend And Short Pressure
Trip ifPrice drops to $31.09 or below, the stop level, with short interest above 16%.
- P5Weak Growth Recent Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% in the 2026-12-17 report and the one after.