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BHP Group Limited (BHP) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $82.00 — A.R:R is negative (-4.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments. It also engages in the mining of copper,... Read more

$82.00+9.5% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#7 of 21 Other Industrial Metals & Mining
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.81%
IncomeYield3.17%(5y avg 7.10%)Payout54.64%sustainable
Stop $76.51Target $89.62(resistance)A.R:R -4.2:1
Analyst target$68.07-17.0%7 analysts
$89.62our TP
$82.00price
$68.07mean
$56
$90

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $82.00 — A.R:R is negative (-4.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.

Recent Developments — BHP Group Limited

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.2 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.9
P/E (Fwd)15.8
Mkt Cap$213.4B
EV/EBITDA17.0
Profit Mgn19.0%
ROE24.7%
Rev Growth10.8%
Beta0.80
Dividend3.17%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C22.73bearish
IV44%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R -4.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Conservative
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $76.92Resistance $91.45

Price Targets

$77
$90
A.Upside+9.3%
A.R:R-4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-27.7% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-17 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BHP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $82.00 — A.R:R is negative (-4.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $76.51. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BHP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $89.62 (+9.5% upside). Prior stop was $76.51. Stop-loss: $76.51.

What are the risks of investing in BHP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is BHP overvalued or undervalued?

BHP Group Limited trades at a P/E of 20.9 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BHP?

23 analysts cover BHP with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $68.

What does BHP Group Limited do?BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia,...

BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments. It also engages in the mining of copper, uranium, gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, silver, iron ore, cobalt, and metallurgical and energy coal. In addition, the company is involved in the mining, smelting, and refining of nickel, as well as potash development activities. Further, it provides towing, freight, marketing and trading, marketing support, finance, administrative, and other services. BHP Group Limited was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

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