Value
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.4 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.4 |
| PEG | 8.5 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.75
BHP · Why this verdict
Why BHP Group (BHP) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BHP is a wide-moat, high-quality miner (quality 8.3, Piotroski 9/9) accumulated by institutions, but the price is 14.1% above the analyst target, earnings have been mixed and momentum is weak, so the case is to accumulate only on weakness.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
BHP is a high-quality business with a wide economic moat, strong margins of 17%, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and compounder quality (strong returns plus growth). Quality breakdown | Operating margin stays above 15% and quality score stays above 7.5 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCommodity prices drive miner margins, so quality scores at a cyclical peak can mislead. | ||
At $79.16 the stock is 14.1% above the $67.98 analyst target, so analyst upside is exhausted and downside to the stop is 5.8%. Warnings | Analyst targets rise toward the current price, or the price eases back toward $67.98. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag commodity rallies, and strong copper or iron ore pricing could trigger upward revisions. | ||
Earnings are inconsistent: 2 beats and 2 misses over the last 4 quarters, with two consecutive misses and an average surprise of -26.9%. Bear case | The company beats estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterResource company estimates are noisy because of commodity price swings, so misses may not reflect operational problems. | ||
Momentum is weak at 2.6/10 with RSI at 29 and falling OBV, but the long-term average is still rising at +5.0%/30d, indicating a pullback in an uptrend. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 40 and price reclaims the 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDistribution volume and an RSI near capitulation suggest more selling pressure before a bottom. | ||
The dividend carries a yield-trap warning (dividend safety 3.0) and the put/call ratio is elevated at 2.25. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety improves above 5.0 and the put/call ratio normalizes below 1.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMiner dividends flex with commodity prices by design, and elevated puts may reflect hedging by institutions accumulating shares. | ||
BHP is a high-quality business with a wide economic moat, strong margins of 17%, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and compounder quality (strong returns plus growth).
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin stays above 15% and quality score stays above 7.5 over 12 months.
CounterCommodity prices drive miner margins, so quality scores at a cyclical peak can mislead.
At $79.16 the stock is 14.1% above the $67.98 analyst target, so analyst upside is exhausted and downside to the stop is 5.8%.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise toward the current price, or the price eases back toward $67.98.
CounterAnalyst targets lag commodity rallies, and strong copper or iron ore pricing could trigger upward revisions.
Earnings are inconsistent: 2 beats and 2 misses over the last 4 quarters, with two consecutive misses and an average surprise of -26.9%.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The company beats estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterResource company estimates are noisy because of commodity price swings, so misses may not reflect operational problems.
Momentum is weak at 2.6/10 with RSI at 29 and falling OBV, but the long-term average is still rising at +5.0%/30d, indicating a pullback in an uptrend.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 40 and price reclaims the 200-day average.
CounterDistribution volume and an RSI near capitulation suggest more selling pressure before a bottom.
The dividend carries a yield-trap warning (dividend safety 3.0) and the put/call ratio is elevated at 2.25.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety improves above 5.0 and the put/call ratio normalizes below 1.5.
CounterMiner dividends flex with commodity prices by design, and elevated puts may reflect hedging by institutions accumulating shares.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.0 |
| ROA | 9.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.4 |
| Current ratio | 6.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.9 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.1 |
| EPS growth | 6.5 |
Momentum
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 1.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 6.4 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $315,465 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.5 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 6.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.6 |
| days to cover | 3.1 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.08
- ▸Above max pain $35
Catalyst
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:104d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.25
Upside
-13.0%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.3) with weak momentum (2.4)
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.4<4.5 outcome against Quality at 8.3 and asymmetric R:R of -2.25.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.3, Technical at 7.9, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.4, Catalyst at 3.1, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.25 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat High Quality
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 12% from the current level near 17%.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice rises above $90, more than 30% above the $67.98 analyst target.
- P3Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in more than 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Oversold Pullback In Uptrend
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day average with its slope dropping below 0%/30d.
- P5Yield Trap And Hedging
Trip ifDividend safety score stays below 3.0 and put/call ratio exceeds 3.0.