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RIORio Tinto PlcSell5.8·$101.68+0.74%
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Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $101.68 — A.R:R is negative (-2.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through Iron Ore; Aluminium and lithium; and Copper segments. The Iron Ore segment engages in the iron ore mining, and salt and gypsum production in Western Australia.... Read more

$101.68+8.8% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#3 of 21 Other Industrial Metals & Mining
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.13%
IncomeYield3.98%(5y avg 7.60%)Payout61.31%
Stop $96.73Target $110.33(resistance)A.R:R -2.5:1
Analyst target$101.30-0.4%7 analysts
$110.33our TP
$101.68price
$101.30mean
$84
$125

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $101.68 — A.R:R is negative (-2.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Rio Tinto Plc

Generated 2026-06-09T22:21:41Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.6
P/E (Fwd)11.4
Mkt Cap$164.1B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn17.3%
ROE16.4%
Rev Growth14.6%
Beta0.65
Dividend3.98%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV51%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R -2.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $99.72Resistance $112.58

Price Targets

$97
$110
A.Upside+8.5%
A.R:R-2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.1% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 2.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RIO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $101.68 — A.R:R is negative (-2.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $96.73. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RIO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $110.33 (+8.8% upside). Prior stop was $96.73. Stop-loss: $96.73.

What are the risks of investing in RIO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is RIO overvalued or undervalued?

Rio Tinto Plc trades at a P/E of 16.6 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RIO?

33 analysts cover RIO with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $101.

What does Rio Tinto Plc do?Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through...

Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through Iron Ore; Aluminium and lithium; and Copper segments. The Iron Ore segment engages in the iron ore mining, and salt and gypsum production in Western Australia. The Aluminum and lithium segment is involved in bauxite mining; alumina refining; and aluminium smelting, and recycling, as well as mining and processing of lithium. The Copper segment engages in mining and refining of copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other by-products and exploration activities. It also owns and operates open pit and underground mines; and refineries, smelters, processing plants and power, and shipping facilities. The company was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

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