Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the RIO stock price target?

Take-profit $99.30 (-0.5% upside). Prior stop was $95.91.

Q: What are the risks of investing in RIO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.7% away); Consecutive earnings misses (3); Target reached (-13.2% upside); NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING.

Q: Is RIO overvalued or undervalued?

Rio Tinto Plc trades at a P/E of 15.8 (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about RIO?

33 analysts cover RIO with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $100.

Range Bound setup

SellModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-01

Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $99.76 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.7% away).

$99.76-0.5% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#2 of 21 Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Stop $95.91Target $99.30(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1

Analyst target$99.58-0.2%7 analysts

$99.30our TP

$99.76price

$99.58mean

$84

$122

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

Attractive valuation

Strong growth profile

Positive insider activity

Risks

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Near 52-week high (1.7% away)

Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.8

P/E (Fwd)11.1

Mkt Cap$156.9B

EV/EBITDA8.7

Profit Mgn17.3%

ROE16.4%

Rev Growth14.6%

Beta0.64

Dividend4.17%

Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.11bearish

IV44%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.515%1.13

Quality5.815%0.87

Growth8.115%1.21

Momentum3.410%0.34

Sentiment5.910%0.59

Insider Activity7.310%0.73

Peer Rank4.110%0.41

Technical Setup4.85%0.24

Risk Profile7.85%0.39

Catalyst4.75%0.24

Overall (Σ contributions)6.14

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd

0.0

Obv

1.0

Volume

1.3

Rsi

5.5

Ma Position

9.0

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate

RSI

54 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $92.18Resistance $101.33

Price Targets

$96

$99

A.Upside-0.5%

A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.2% upside)

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

1/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-29 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is RIO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $99.76 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.7% away). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $95.91. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RIO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $99.30 (-0.5% upside). Prior stop was $95.91. Stop-loss: $95.91.

What are the risks of investing in RIO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.7% away); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is RIO overvalued or undervalued?

Rio Tinto Plc trades at a P/E of 15.8 (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RIO?

33 analysts cover RIO with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $100.

What does Rio Tinto Plc do?Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through...

Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through Iron Ore; Aluminium and lithium; and Copper segments. The Iron Ore segment engages in the iron ore mining, and salt and gypsum production in Western Australia. The Aluminum and lithium segment is involved in bauxite mining; alumina refining; and aluminium smelting, and recycling, as well as mining and processing of lithium. The Copper segment engages in mining and refining of copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other by-products and exploration activities. It also owns and operates open pit and underground mines; and refineries, smelters, processing plants and power, and shipping facilities. The company was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.