VALE S.A. (VALE) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.18 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.0× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced..
Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. It extracts, produces, and distributes iron... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.18 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.0× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=8.0x,ratio=0.32x. Suitability: moderate.
Recent Developments — VALE S.A.
Latest news
- Vale's Disappointing Q1 Performance Affects Stock (VALE) - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- VALE S.A. (VALE) Stock Falls on Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- Vale S.A. (VALE) Gets Downgraded by Barclays Over Upcoming Seasonality Headwinds - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- Vale Gears Up to Report Q1 Earnings: Here's What to Expect - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- Analysts Offer Insights on Materials Companies: Cerrado Gold (OtherCRDOF) and Vale SA (VALE) - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.18 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.0× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $15.32. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $17.48 (+7.2% upside). Prior stop was $15.32. Stop-loss: $15.32.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.0× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).
VALE S.A. trades at a P/E of 24.7 (forward 8.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover VALE with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $17.
What does VALE S.A. do?Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa,...
Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. It extracts, produces, and distributes iron ore, iron ore pellets, briquettes, nickel, copper, other ferrous products, and by-products, including gold, silver, cobalt, platinum-group metals, and other base metals, as well as low-carbon critical minerals. The company also operates logistics systems and distribution centers, such as mining complexes, railways, and maritime terminals, ports, and ships; generates energy from hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources; and engages in greenfield mineral exploration. In addition, it is involved in research; and trading activities. The company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and changed its name to Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.