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VALE S.A. (VALE) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.22 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. It extracts, produces, and distributes iron... Read more

$16.22+8.4% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#10 of 21 Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Stop $15.33Target $17.58(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$17.27+6.5%25 analysts
$17.58our TP
$16.22price
$17.27mean
$14
$21

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.22 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.0
P/E (Fwd)7.4
Mkt Cap$67.6B
EV/EBITDA2.0
Profit Mgn6.5%
ROE5.9%
Rev Growth0.5%
Beta0.89
Dividend7.44%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.74neutral
IV53%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.2
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.6
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.8
Value Rank
5.3
Quality Rank
6.1
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 91d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $15.77Resistance $17.94

Price Targets

$15
$18
A.Upside+8.4%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.2% upside)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (91d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VALE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.22 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $15.33. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VALE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.58 (+8.4% upside). Prior stop was $15.33. Stop-loss: $15.33.

What are the risks of investing in VALE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.

Is VALE overvalued or undervalued?

VALE S.A. trades at a P/E of 24.0 (forward 7.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VALE?

23 analysts cover VALE with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $17.

What does VALE S.A. do?Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa,...

Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. It extracts, produces, and distributes iron ore, iron ore pellets, briquettes, nickel, copper, other ferrous products, and by-products, including gold, silver, cobalt, platinum-group metals, and other base metals, as well as low-carbon critical minerals. The company also operates logistics systems and distribution centers, such as mining complexes, railways, and maritime terminals, ports, and ships; generates energy from hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources; and engages in greenfield mineral exploration. In addition, it is involved in research; and trading activities. The company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and changed its name to Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

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