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BGCBGC Group, Inc.Hold5.9·$11.27
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

BGC Group is deeply cheap (forward P/E 7.4x, PEG 0.27) with a strong Piotroski score and 15.4% upside to the analyst target, though earnings have only been in line and leverage is elevated.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value Low Peg→Stable
  • Analyst Target Upside→Stable
  • Strong Financial Health→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

BGC Group, Inc. (BGC) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

BGC Group is a global inter-dealer broker and financial technology company providing brokerage and trade execution across fixed income, FX, equities, and energy, commodity, and shipping (ECS) markets. The company earns commissions and fees through Voice, Hybrid, and Fully... Read more

$11.27+20.7% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#25 of 50 Capital Markets
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield0.71%(5y avg 0.77%)Payout20.00%sustainable
Stop $10.72Analyst target $13.60(−15% haircut)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst consensus$16.00+42.0%2 analysts with price targets
Range unavailable (2 analysts with price targets)

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About BGC Group, Inc.

About BGC Group, Inc.

BGC Group brokered transactions in fixed income, FX, equities, derivatives, and ECS products through 2,510 front-office personnel across 40+ cities globally at December 31, 2025. Fenics, the technology-driven segment, contributed 22.4% of total revenues for the year, while Voice and Hybrid brokerage represented the majority of revenues. The April 2025 acquisition of OTC Global established BGC as the world's largest energy, commodities, and shipping broker by revenue.

BGC earns commission and fee revenue from inter-dealer brokerage across fixed income, FX, equities, and ECS products, supplemented by recurring data, network, and post-trade service fees within Fenics. Voice and Hybrid brokerage generates per-transaction commissions and remains the majority of revenues; Fenics electronic platforms carry higher margins, with Fenics Integrated desks requiring expected pre-tax margins of at least 25%. In April 2025, BGC acquired OTC Global, adding crude and refined products, petrochemicals, natural gas, and ship brokerage, and in December 2025 acquired AMCOM for agricultural commodities. FMX — in which Bank of America, Barclays, Citi, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo collectively invested $171.7 million for a 25.75% ownership stake — operates a U.S. interest rate futures exchange and cash Treasuries platform. Top 10 customers accounted for approximately 23.6% of total consolidated revenue in 2025, with the largest at approximately 4.0%, indicating a highly fragmented client base.

Show full overview

BGC's governance structure changed significantly in 2025: on February 18, Howard W. Lutnick was confirmed as U.S. Secretary of Commerce and stepped down as Chairman and CEO, with three Co-CEOs — John J. Abularrage, JP Aubin, and Sean Windeatt — simultaneously appointed. By October 6, 2025, Lutnick completed the divestiture of his holdings in compliance with government ethics rules, transferring effective control to trusts managed by Brandon Lutnick. The 10-K also notes that BGC excluded OTC Global from management's internal controls over financial reporting assessment for fiscal 2025, acknowledging that remediation of additional controls may be required when OTC Global is integrated.

See also: Financial Services · Capital Markets

From BGC Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Nov 1, 2026

Recent Developments — BGC Group, Inc.

Latest item Nov 1, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:39:29Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 2026Earnings today — results expected after close· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 21%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.2
P/E (Fwd)7.0
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn6.3%
ROE15.9%
Rev Growth8.3%
Beta0.99
Dividend0.71%
Analysts with ratings6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.40bullish
IV104%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.1
Quality Rank
4.0
Value Rank
4.2
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.05Resistance $12.02

Price Targets

$11
$14
A.Upside+20.7%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (Earnings today — results expected after close)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BGC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $13.60 (+20.7%), stop $10.72 (−5.1%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BGC stock price target?

Analyst target: $13.60 (+20.7% upside). Analyst target $13.60 (+20.7%), stop $10.72 (−5.1%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Stop-loss: $10.72.

What are the risks of investing in BGC?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

Is BGC overvalued or undervalued?

BGC Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.2 (forward 7.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BGC?

6 analysts rate BGC, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 2 analysts publish price targets averaging $16.

What does BGC Group, Inc. do?BGC Group is a global inter-dealer broker and financial technology company providing brokerage and trade execution...

BGC Group is a global inter-dealer broker and financial technology company providing brokerage and trade execution across fixed income, FX, equities, and energy, commodity, and shipping (ECS) markets. The company earns commissions and fees through Voice, Hybrid, and Fully Electronic platforms operated by 2,510 front-office personnel across 40+ cities, with the technology-driven Fenics business representing 22.4% of total revenues in 2025.

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