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BGC Group, Inc. (BGC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $11.24, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 9.6%.

BGC Group is a global inter-dealer brokerage and financial technology company specializing in ECS (energy, commodities, shipping) and financial markets (rates, FX, credit, equities). The company also operates FMX (U.S. Treasury and SOFR futures exchange) and provides market data... Read more

$11.24+9.6% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#7 of 40 Capital Markets
Stop $10.64Target $12.32(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$14.50+29.0%2 analysts
$12.32our TP
$11.24price
$14.50mean
$15

Sell if holding. At $11.24, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 9.6%. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.6%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.1
P/E (Fwd)7.0
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn5.5%
ROE13.2%
Rev Growth32.0%
Beta0.96
Dividend0.72%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.35bullish
IV67%elevated
Max Pain$18+60.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.5
Value Rank
3.9
Growth Rank
6.3

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.4
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $9.63Resistance $11.90

Price Targets

$11
$12
A.Upside+9.6%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BGC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $11.24, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 9.6%. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $10.64. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BGC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.32 (+9.6% upside). Prior stop was $10.64. Stop-loss: $10.64.

What are the risks of investing in BGC?

Thin upside margin: 9.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is BGC overvalued or undervalued?

BGC Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 36.1 (forward 7.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BGC?

6 analysts cover BGC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $15.

What does BGC Group, Inc. do?BGC Group is a global inter-dealer brokerage and financial technology company specializing in ECS (energy, commodities,...

BGC Group is a global inter-dealer brokerage and financial technology company specializing in ECS (energy, commodities, shipping) and financial markets (rates, FX, credit, equities). The company also operates FMX (U.S. Treasury and SOFR futures exchange) and provides market data and post-trade services; top 10 customers collectively accounted for ~23.6% of 2025 total revenue.

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