Value
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
- ▸Attractively valued
BGC · Why this verdict
Why BGC Group (BGC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BGC Group combines 44% year-over-year revenue growth, a forward multiple of roughly 7x, and strong price momentum — the reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 2-to-1 with 11.6% upside to the analyst target is favorable, though a leverage penalty and a spot-entry asymmetry gate that fell short of threshold temper conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company is growing revenue at 44% year over year while trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 7x and a PEG ratio near 0.13, a combination that screens as attractively cheap relative to the growth profile. Valuation breakdown | Revenue growth sustains above 20% year over year and the forward P/E remains below 12x over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh reported growth rates are often followed by deceleration as the base normalizes; if growth slows materially, the valuation may look less attractive and multiple expansion may not materialize. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of roughly 1.6 imposes a penalty on the overall score and limits financial flexibility, making the company more sensitive to any operating shortfall or tightening of credit conditions. Bear case | Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 1.0 over the next 12 months, reducing the leverage risk premium embedded in the stock. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA debt-to-equity of 1.6 is not extreme for a capital markets business; if earnings momentum continues at the current growth rate, the debt load becomes proportionally easier to service and the leverage concern diminishes. | ||
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation and a bullish MACD setup — all three indicators pointing in the same direction, confirming a constructive technical backdrop. Momentum breakdown | Price remains above the 200-day moving average with a positive on-balance volume trend for at least six consecutive months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe RSI at 71 is approaching overbought territory and the stock is within 2.4% of its 52-week high, meaning the technical tailwind may be close to exhaustion without a period of consolidation. | ||
With 11.6% upside to the analyst price target of $13.17 and a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 2-to-1, the current price setup offers more room to capture gains than to absorb losses, a favorable geometry for position sizing. Price targets | Price advances to within 2% of the $13.17 analyst price target within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe favorable reward-to-risk is paired with a spot-entry asymmetry ratio that fell short of the 1.5-to-1 threshold the engine requires for high-conviction sizing — meaning the setup, while directionally positive, does not yet clear the full bar. | ||
The company is growing revenue at 44% year over year while trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 7x and a PEG ratio near 0.13, a combination that screens as attractively cheap relative to the growth profile.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 20% year over year and the forward P/E remains below 12x over the next 12 months.
CounterHigh reported growth rates are often followed by deceleration as the base normalizes; if growth slows materially, the valuation may look less attractive and multiple expansion may not materialize.
A debt-to-equity ratio of roughly 1.6 imposes a penalty on the overall score and limits financial flexibility, making the company more sensitive to any operating shortfall or tightening of credit conditions.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 1.0 over the next 12 months, reducing the leverage risk premium embedded in the stock.
CounterA debt-to-equity of 1.6 is not extreme for a capital markets business; if earnings momentum continues at the current growth rate, the debt load becomes proportionally easier to service and the leverage concern diminishes.
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation and a bullish MACD setup — all three indicators pointing in the same direction, confirming a constructive technical backdrop.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average with a positive on-balance volume trend for at least six consecutive months.
CounterThe RSI at 71 is approaching overbought territory and the stock is within 2.4% of its 52-week high, meaning the technical tailwind may be close to exhaustion without a period of consolidation.
With 11.6% upside to the analyst price target of $13.17 and a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 2-to-1, the current price setup offers more room to capture gains than to absorb losses, a favorable geometry for position sizing.
↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Price advances to within 2% of the $13.17 analyst price target within 12 months.
CounterThe favorable reward-to-risk is paired with a spot-entry asymmetry ratio that fell short of the 1.5-to-1 threshold the engine requires for high-conviction sizing — meaning the setup, while directionally positive, does not yet clear the full bar.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.3 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Net margin | 3.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 7.5 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.2 |
| MACD | 0.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 27)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 51%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| put call | 6.0 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| beta | 7.3 |
| debt equity | 4.2 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:86d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.89
Upside
+28.0%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:3.9>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.8; weakest: Momentum at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.8, Technical at 8.6, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Peer rank at 3.6, and Quality at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Compelling Growth And Valuation
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the high-growth phase is decelerating from the current 44%.
- P2Strong Price Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and closes there for more than 10 consecutive sessions.
- P3Favorable Risk Reward Geometry
Trip ifPrice rises above $13.17, reaching the analyst target and exhausting the full 11.6% upside in the favorable risk/reward setup.
- P4Leverage As Structural Headwind
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 2.5, indicating leverage is increasing rather than normalizing.