Value
8.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.12
- ▸Attractively valued
BGC · Why this verdict
Why BGC Group (BGC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company is growing revenue at 44% year over year while trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 7x and a PEG ratio near 0.13, a combination that screens as attractively cheap relative to the growth profile. Valuation breakdown | Revenue growth sustains above 20% year over year and the forward P/E remains below 12x over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh reported growth rates are often followed by deceleration as the base normalizes; if growth slows materially, the valuation may look less attractive and multiple expansion may not materialize. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of roughly 1.6 imposes a penalty on the overall score and limits financial flexibility, making the company more sensitive to any operating shortfall or tightening of credit conditions. Bear case | Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 1.0 over the next 12 months, reducing the leverage risk premium embedded in the stock. | →Stable |
| CounterA debt-to-equity of 1.6 is not extreme for a capital markets business; if earnings momentum continues at the current growth rate, the debt load becomes proportionally easier to service and the leverage concern diminishes. | ||
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation and a bullish MACD setup — all three indicators pointing in the same direction, confirming a constructive technical backdrop. Momentum breakdown | Price remains above the 200-day moving average with a positive on-balance volume trend for at least six consecutive months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe RSI at 71 is approaching overbought territory and the stock is within 2.4% of its 52-week high, meaning the technical tailwind may be close to exhaustion without a period of consolidation. | ||
With 11.6% upside to the analyst price target of $13.17 and a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 2-to-1, the current price setup offers more room to capture gains than to absorb losses, a favorable geometry for position sizing. Price targets | Price advances to within 2% of the $13.17 analyst price target within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe favorable reward-to-risk is paired with a spot-entry asymmetry ratio that fell short of the 1.5-to-1 threshold the engine requires for high-conviction sizing — meaning the setup, while directionally positive, does not yet clear the full bar. | ||
The company is growing revenue at 44% year over year while trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 7x and a PEG ratio near 0.13, a combination that screens as attractively cheap relative to the growth profile.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 20% year over year and the forward P/E remains below 12x over the next 12 months.
CounterHigh reported growth rates are often followed by deceleration as the base normalizes; if growth slows materially, the valuation may look less attractive and multiple expansion may not materialize.
A debt-to-equity ratio of roughly 1.6 imposes a penalty on the overall score and limits financial flexibility, making the company more sensitive to any operating shortfall or tightening of credit conditions.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 1.0 over the next 12 months, reducing the leverage risk premium embedded in the stock.
CounterA debt-to-equity of 1.6 is not extreme for a capital markets business; if earnings momentum continues at the current growth rate, the debt load becomes proportionally easier to service and the leverage concern diminishes.
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation and a bullish MACD setup — all three indicators pointing in the same direction, confirming a constructive technical backdrop.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average with a positive on-balance volume trend for at least six consecutive months.
CounterThe RSI at 71 is approaching overbought territory and the stock is within 2.4% of its 52-week high, meaning the technical tailwind may be close to exhaustion without a period of consolidation.
With 11.6% upside to the analyst price target of $13.17 and a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 2-to-1, the current price setup offers more room to capture gains than to absorb losses, a favorable geometry for position sizing.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price advances to within 2% of the $13.17 analyst price target within 12 months.
CounterThe favorable reward-to-risk is paired with a spot-entry asymmetry ratio that fell short of the 1.5-to-1 threshold the engine requires for high-conviction sizing — meaning the setup, while directionally positive, does not yet clear the full bar.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BGC Group combines 44% year-over-year revenue growth, a forward multiple of roughly 7x, and strong price momentum — the reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 2-to-1 with 11.6% upside to the analyst target is favorable, though a leverage penalty and a spot-entry asymmetry gate that fell short of threshold temper conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 4.8 |
| Net margin | 3.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 44% YoY
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 41%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 0.1 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| beta | 7.3 |
| debt equity | 3.9 |
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Dividend: 73.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.98
Upside
+19.6%
Downside
9.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Peer rank at 4.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.6, and Technical at 6.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.0, Momentum at 4.3, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.98 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Compelling Growth And Valuation
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the high-growth phase is decelerating from the current 44%.
- P2Strong Price Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and closes there for more than 10 consecutive sessions.
- P3Favorable Risk Reward Geometry
Trip ifPrice rises above $13.17, reaching the analyst target and exhausting the full 11.6% upside in the favorable risk/reward setup.
- P4Leverage As Structural Headwind
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 2.5, indicating leverage is increasing rather than normalizing.