Value
6.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 4.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.0x
- ▸PEG: 2.24
BBVA · Why this verdict
Why Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BBVA is a cheap, high-quality diversified bank (forward P/E about 9x, strong margins) but the stock already trades 4.2% above the analyst target and momentum is weak, so it suits holding rather than adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 9.1x, BBVA is priced cheaply versus peers, offering a valuation cushion. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below ~11x while earnings hold, keeping the valuation cushion intact over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 2.24 implies growth is not cheap relative to the multiple, and the low P/E may simply reflect cyclical bank earnings that peak. | ||
Profitability is strong, with margins around 33% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating sound financial health. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above and margins stay near 30% through the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on assets is only about 0.9 on the engine's scale and bank margins can compress quickly if rates fall or credit costs rise. | ||
Earnings delivery is mixed: two beats and two misses in the last four quarters, with the two most recent quarters beating by 2.74% and 3.69%. Earnings | EPS beats resume and average surprise turns positive across the next four quarters, starting with the report in 5 days. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo misses in the prior year and an average surprise of essentially 0% show no reliable beat pattern, and results are due in 5 days. | ||
The price of $24.88 is 4.2% above the $23.83 analyst target, leaving limited upside and a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -0.85. Upside pct | Analyst targets are revised up above the current price, or the price retreats toward the target, within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag price, and a re-rating of the cheap multiple could carry the stock well beyond the current consensus target. | ||
Price momentum is weak at 3.9/10, with falling on-balance volume signalling distribution despite an oversold RSI of 29. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 5/10 as the stock stabilizes above its 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is still above its 200-day moving average and an oversold RSI of 29 often precedes a rebound, so weakness may be temporary. | ||
At a forward P/E of 9.1x, BBVA is priced cheaply versus peers, offering a valuation cushion.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below ~11x while earnings hold, keeping the valuation cushion intact over 12 months.
CounterA PEG of 2.24 implies growth is not cheap relative to the multiple, and the low P/E may simply reflect cyclical bank earnings that peak.
Profitability is strong, with margins around 33% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating sound financial health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above and margins stay near 30% through the next four quarters.
CounterReturn on assets is only about 0.9 on the engine's scale and bank margins can compress quickly if rates fall or credit costs rise.
Earnings delivery is mixed: two beats and two misses in the last four quarters, with the two most recent quarters beating by 2.74% and 3.69%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats resume and average surprise turns positive across the next four quarters, starting with the report in 5 days.
CounterTwo misses in the prior year and an average surprise of essentially 0% show no reliable beat pattern, and results are due in 5 days.
The price of $24.88 is 4.2% above the $23.83 analyst target, leaving limited upside and a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -0.85.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are revised up above the current price, or the price retreats toward the target, within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets lag price, and a re-rating of the cheap multiple could carry the stock well beyond the current consensus target.
Price momentum is weak at 3.9/10, with falling on-balance volume signalling distribution despite an oversold RSI of 29.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 5/10 as the stock stabilizes above its 200-day average.
CounterThe stock is still above its 200-day moving average and an oversold RSI of 29 often precedes a rebound, so weakness may be temporary.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.6 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.1 |
| EPS growth | 6.8 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.1 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (5.6%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 5.8 |
| put call | 4.8 |
| implied vol | 6.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.1 |
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.2 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 4.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:92d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.74
Upside
-6.5%
Downside
8.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 6.9; weakest: Technical at 4.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.9, Growth at 6.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 4.3, Catalyst at 4.5, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.74 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Low Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from the current 9.1x.
- P2Strong Quality Margins
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 from the current 8.
- P3Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Target Already Reached
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $28 from the current $23.83.
- P5Weak Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.0 from the current 3.9.