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Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor (BAH) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Consulting Services

Earnings in 1 day (2026-05-22). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $70.14. At $74.85 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $70.14 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (98.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Booz Allen Hamilton delivers AI, cyber, and digital technology services to U.S. federal defense, intelligence, and civil customers across 5,279 contracts and task orders. Revenue is almost entirely government-derived; the Department of Veterans Affairs was the single largest... Read more

$74.85+15.6% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#6 of 7 Consulting Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.71%
IncomeYield3.06%(5y avg 1.77%)Payout32.64%sustainable
Entry $70.14(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $64.42Target $83.30(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1Setup A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$95.75+27.9%12 analysts
$83.30our TP
$74.85price
$95.75mean
$160

Wait for pullback to $70.14. At $74.85 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $70.14 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (98.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Val7.6Qual5.4Grw2.2Mom4.5Sent6.8Ins5.0Peer5.3Tech4.2Risk5.55.3OVERALL

Recent Developments — Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor

Material events (past 30 days)

  • Apr 27, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Troy Lahr appointed EVP and CFO effective May 4, 2026. Previously served as CFO at Sierra Space and CFO of Boeing's Defense, Space & Security. Annual base salary $825,000. No prior CFO departure explicitly stated; clean handoff.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (98.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.4
P/E (Fwd)12.3
Mkt Cap$9.3B
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn7.4%
ROE75.1%
Rev Growth-10.2%
Beta0.32
Dividend3.06%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.25bullish
IV58%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. government98%
    10-K Item 1A: 'revenue from contracts and task orders, either as a prime or a subcontractor, with U.S. government agencies accounting for 98% of our revenue for fiscal year 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerDepartment of Veterans Affairs13%
    10-K Item 1: 'We derived 13% of our revenue in fiscal 2025 from the Department of Veterans Affairs, which was the single largest customer that we served in that year'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-27Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Troy Lahr appointed EVP and CFO effective May 4, 2026. Previously served as CFO at Sierra Space and CFO of Boeing's Defense, Space & Security. Annual base salary $825,000. No prior CFO departure explicitly stated; clean handoff.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -10.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
4.5
Declining revenue: -10%
GatesMomentum 4.5<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $68.83Resistance $79.95

Price Targets

$64
$70
$83
A.Upside+11.3%
A.R:R1.4:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 1 day - binary event risk
! Momentum score 4.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-22 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BAH stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $70.14. At $74.85 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $70.14 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (98.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Target $83.30 (+11.3%), stop $64.42 (−16.2%), Setup A.R:R 2.2:1. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the BAH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $83.30 (+15.6% upside). Target $83.30 (+11.3%), stop $64.42 (−16.2%), Setup A.R:R 2.2:1. Stop-loss: $64.42.

What are the risks of investing in BAH?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (98.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is BAH overvalued or undervalued?

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor trades at a P/E of 11.4 (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about BAH?

23 analysts cover BAH with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $96.

What does Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor do?Booz Allen Hamilton delivers AI, cyber, and digital technology services to U.S. federal defense, intelligence, and...

Booz Allen Hamilton delivers AI, cyber, and digital technology services to U.S. federal defense, intelligence, and civil customers across 5,279 contracts and task orders. Revenue is almost entirely government-derived; the Department of Veterans Affairs was the single largest customer at 13% of fiscal 2025 revenue. The company derives competitive advantage from security clearances held by ~72% of its 35,800 employees.

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