Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 7.7 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.88
- ▸Attractively valued
BAH · Why this verdict
Why Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor (BAH) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Despite declining revenue of 6%, the company has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 17.7%, suggesting management is consistently under-promising and over-delivering on profitability through cost discipline. Earnings | Average EPS surprise remains above 10% over the next two quarters, confirming that margin management can offset ongoing top-line pressure. | →Stable |
| CounterA single recent miss within the beat run, combined with revenue that is declining rather than growing, raises the risk that earnings outperformance is a narrowing exercise — one that becomes harder to sustain if contract attrition or budget cuts accelerate. | ||
Near-total reliance on the U.S. government as a single customer creates a fragile revenue base that can deteriorate rapidly with budget cycles, contract rebidding, or administration-driven spending shifts — a structural risk with limited near-term diversification buffers. Bear case | Non-government revenue grows to a meaningfully larger share of the backlog over the next four quarters, demonstrating that customer diversification is underway. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep government relationships represent a durable, high-barrier competitive position — long contract cycles and incumbent advantages create multi-year revenue visibility that offsets the concentration concern for patient, long-term holders. | ||
At a forward P/E of 10.9x and a PEG of 1.06, the stock screens attractively valued for the consulting services sector, offering a growth-adjusted discount that could cushion downside if top-line trends stabilize. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E remains below 14x while analyst revenue estimates hold steady or improve, validating that the discount reflects a genuine opportunity rather than structurally impaired earnings power. | →Stable |
| CounterAttractive forward multiples alongside declining revenue of 6% may reflect the market correctly pricing in weaker future earnings power — the cheap P/E could be a value trap rather than a discount if revenue headwinds persist. | ||
A death cross, a price below all key moving averages with the slope declining at 5.1% over the last 30 days, and an RSI of 38 constitute a confirmed downtrend that historically argues against new entry until the trend reverses. Momentum breakdown | This pillar is falsified — and timing improves materially — when price closes above the 200-day moving average and holds there for 4 consecutive weeks. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is approaching oversold territory, and earnings beats of this magnitude have historically snapped such downtrends; waiting for full trend reversal may mean missing a significant portion of the recovery move. | ||
Despite declining revenue of 6%, the company has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 17.7%, suggesting management is consistently under-promising and over-delivering on profitability through cost discipline.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Average EPS surprise remains above 10% over the next two quarters, confirming that margin management can offset ongoing top-line pressure.
CounterA single recent miss within the beat run, combined with revenue that is declining rather than growing, raises the risk that earnings outperformance is a narrowing exercise — one that becomes harder to sustain if contract attrition or budget cuts accelerate.
Near-total reliance on the U.S. government as a single customer creates a fragile revenue base that can deteriorate rapidly with budget cycles, contract rebidding, or administration-driven spending shifts — a structural risk with limited near-term diversification buffers.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Non-government revenue grows to a meaningfully larger share of the backlog over the next four quarters, demonstrating that customer diversification is underway.
CounterDeep government relationships represent a durable, high-barrier competitive position — long contract cycles and incumbent advantages create multi-year revenue visibility that offsets the concentration concern for patient, long-term holders.
At a forward P/E of 10.9x and a PEG of 1.06, the stock screens attractively valued for the consulting services sector, offering a growth-adjusted discount that could cushion downside if top-line trends stabilize.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E remains below 14x while analyst revenue estimates hold steady or improve, validating that the discount reflects a genuine opportunity rather than structurally impaired earnings power.
CounterAttractive forward multiples alongside declining revenue of 6% may reflect the market correctly pricing in weaker future earnings power — the cheap P/E could be a value trap rather than a discount if revenue headwinds persist.
A death cross, a price below all key moving averages with the slope declining at 5.1% over the last 30 days, and an RSI of 38 constitute a confirmed downtrend that historically argues against new entry until the trend reverses.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- This pillar is falsified — and timing improves materially — when price closes above the 200-day moving average and holds there for 4 consecutive weeks.
CounterThe stock is approaching oversold territory, and earnings beats of this magnitude have historically snapped such downtrends; waiting for full trend reversal may mean missing a significant portion of the recovery move.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Booz Allen Hamilton has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 17.7%, and trades at a forward P/E of 10.9x with a PEG of 1.06 — but a confirmed death-cross downtrend, declining revenue of 6%, and only about 9% headroom to analyst targets leave the setup unfavorable for new buyers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.5 |
| Op margin | 3.8 |
| Net margin | 3.8 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 81%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.9 |
| EPS growth | 4.1 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -6%
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 5.5 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 22, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 47%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.7 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.3 |
| support resistance | 8.6 |
| 52w position | 0.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 0.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 1.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.22
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 378.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:2.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.83
Upside
+27.9%
Downside
9.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 20d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -47% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.7 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.83 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Catalyst at 6.9, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Growth at 2.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.83 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Quality Amid Revenue Pressure
Trip ifAverage EPS surprise falls below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the consistent over-delivery pattern from the current 17.7% average.
- P2Valuation Discount With Peg Near One
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 15x as earnings estimates compress more than 20% from current levels.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Blocks Entry
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average and holds for 4 consecutive weeks, reversing the confirmed downtrend.
- P4Government Concentration Structural Risk
Trip ifRevenue grows more than 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating the single-customer concentration is not creating revenue fragility.