Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 4.2 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.0x
- ▸PEG: 2.33
BAH · Why this verdict
Why Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor (BAH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Booz Allen has a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and a 70% ROE, but at $88.49 the price is 12.5% above the analyst target, revenue is declining 4% and the stock is overbought at RSI 88.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The price of $88.49 is above the $77.43 analyst target, a -12.5% upside, with 15.0% downside to the stop, leaving no reward margin. Upside pct | Analyst targets should be revised above $90 or the price should pull back toward the target within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterTargets lag fast-moving prices after strong earnings, so the 2026-10-23 beat may trigger upward revisions that close the gap. | ||
RSI is 88, an overbought level, and the price is above the 200-day average whose slope is flat or negative, which the data flags as late-cycle distribution risk despite a volume surge of 2.0x on the up move. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool below 70 without price losing the 200-day average over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterVolume accumulation with rising OBV and improving MACD point to genuine buying demand rather than distribution. | ||
Booz Allen beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, including $1.76 against $1.48 expected in October 2026, a 19% surprise. Bull case | EPS should keep beating estimates by at least 5% over the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA streak of beats against low estimates does not offset revenue declining 4%, and any miss would hit an already stretched price. | ||
ROE is excellent at 70% but revenue is declining 4% and there is no competitive moat, with U.S. government customer concentration. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive above 0% year-over-year within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterConcentration in a single government customer exposes revenue to budget and contract-timing swings that can outweigh high returns. | ||
A dividend aristocrat status with a 2.7% yield and negligible insider selling of $335,429 (0.003% of market cap) supports income holders. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend should be maintained or raised each year with the yield staying near 2.7%. | →Stable |
| CounterA price rise above the analyst target lowers the effective yield, and an officer departure/appointment filing adds management-change risk. | ||
The price of $88.49 is above the $77.43 analyst target, a -12.5% upside, with 15.0% downside to the stop, leaving no reward margin.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be revised above $90 or the price should pull back toward the target within 12 months.
CounterTargets lag fast-moving prices after strong earnings, so the 2026-10-23 beat may trigger upward revisions that close the gap.
RSI is 88, an overbought level, and the price is above the 200-day average whose slope is flat or negative, which the data flags as late-cycle distribution risk despite a volume surge of 2.0x on the up move.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool below 70 without price losing the 200-day average over the next 12 months.
CounterVolume accumulation with rising OBV and improving MACD point to genuine buying demand rather than distribution.
Booz Allen beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, including $1.76 against $1.48 expected in October 2026, a 19% surprise.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- EPS should keep beating estimates by at least 5% over the next 4 quarters.
CounterA streak of beats against low estimates does not offset revenue declining 4%, and any miss would hit an already stretched price.
ROE is excellent at 70% but revenue is declining 4% and there is no competitive moat, with U.S. government customer concentration.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive above 0% year-over-year within 12 months.
CounterConcentration in a single government customer exposes revenue to budget and contract-timing swings that can outweigh high returns.
A dividend aristocrat status with a 2.7% yield and negligible insider selling of $335,429 (0.003% of market cap) supports income holders.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend should be maintained or raised each year with the yield staying near 2.7%.
CounterA price rise above the analyst target lowers the effective yield, and an officer departure/appointment filing adds management-change risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 5.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.5 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Net margin | 3.6 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 7.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 70%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.5 |
| EPS growth | 3.1 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -4%
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 92)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 92 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 9.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.80 (n=1)
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $335,429 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 1.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 17.33
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 9.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Estimates up 19.4% (30d)
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.7% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.80
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:80d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.9>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.80
Upside
-12.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 92
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.80 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.9, Momentum at 6.9, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 2.3, Technical at 3.5, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.80 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in at least 1 of the next 2 quarters.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds the analyst target by more than 20% from current 12.5%.
- P3Overbought Late Cycle Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day average with RSI dropping to below 40 from current 88.
- P4High Roe Weak Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth stays below -4% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Dividend Aristocrat Income
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 2.0% from current 2.7%.